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Nov 12

Stock Price Prediction Using CNN and LSTM-Based Deep Learning Models

Designing robust and accurate predictive models for stock price prediction has been an active area of research for a long time. While on one side, the supporters of the efficient market hypothesis claim that it is impossible to forecast stock prices accurately, many researchers believe otherwise. There exist propositions in the literature that have demonstrated that if properly designed and optimized, predictive models can very accurately and reliably predict future values of stock prices. This paper presents a suite of deep learning based models for stock price prediction. We use the historical records of the NIFTY 50 index listed in the National Stock Exchange of India, during the period from December 29, 2008 to July 31, 2020, for training and testing the models. Our proposition includes two regression models built on convolutional neural networks and three long and short term memory network based predictive models. To forecast the open values of the NIFTY 50 index records, we adopted a multi step prediction technique with walk forward validation. In this approach, the open values of the NIFTY 50 index are predicted on a time horizon of one week, and once a week is over, the actual index values are included in the training set before the model is trained again, and the forecasts for the next week are made. We present detailed results on the forecasting accuracies for all our proposed models. The results show that while all the models are very accurate in forecasting the NIFTY 50 open values, the univariate encoder decoder convolutional LSTM with the previous two weeks data as the input is the most accurate model. On the other hand, a univariate CNN model with previous one week data as the input is found to be the fastest model in terms of its execution speed.

  • 2 authors
·
Oct 21, 2020

Stock Price Prediction Using Machine Learning and LSTM-Based Deep Learning Models

Prediction of stock prices has been an important area of research for a long time. While supporters of the efficient market hypothesis believe that it is impossible to predict stock prices accurately, there are formal propositions demonstrating that accurate modeling and designing of appropriate variables may lead to models using which stock prices and stock price movement patterns can be very accurately predicted. In this work, we propose an approach of hybrid modeling for stock price prediction building different machine learning and deep learning-based models. For the purpose of our study, we have used NIFTY 50 index values of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India, during the period December 29, 2014 till July 31, 2020. We have built eight regression models using the training data that consisted of NIFTY 50 index records during December 29, 2014 till December 28, 2018. Using these regression models, we predicted the open values of NIFTY 50 for the period December 31, 2018 till July 31, 2020. We, then, augment the predictive power of our forecasting framework by building four deep learning-based regression models using long-and short-term memory (LSTM) networks with a novel approach of walk-forward validation. We exploit the power of LSTM regression models in forecasting the future NIFTY 50 open values using four different models that differ in their architecture and in the structure of their input data. Extensive results are presented on various metrics for the all the regression models. The results clearly indicate that the LSTM-based univariate model that uses one-week prior data as input for predicting the next week open value of the NIFTY 50 time series is the most accurate model.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 20, 2020

A Song of (Dis)agreement: Evaluating the Evaluation of Explainable Artificial Intelligence in Natural Language Processing

There has been significant debate in the NLP community about whether or not attention weights can be used as an explanation - a mechanism for interpreting how important each input token is for a particular prediction. The validity of "attention as explanation" has so far been evaluated by computing the rank correlation between attention-based explanations and existing feature attribution explanations using LSTM-based models. In our work, we (i) compare the rank correlation between five more recent feature attribution methods and two attention-based methods, on two types of NLP tasks, and (ii) extend this analysis to also include transformer-based models. We find that attention-based explanations do not correlate strongly with any recent feature attribution methods, regardless of the model or task. Furthermore, we find that none of the tested explanations correlate strongly with one another for the transformer-based model, leading us to question the underlying assumption that we should measure the validity of attention-based explanations based on how well they correlate with existing feature attribution explanation methods. After conducting experiments on five datasets using two different models, we argue that the community should stop using rank correlation as an evaluation metric for attention-based explanations. We suggest that researchers and practitioners should instead test various explanation methods and employ a human-in-the-loop process to determine if the explanations align with human intuition for the particular use case at hand.

  • 4 authors
·
May 9, 2022

AIMI: Leveraging Future Knowledge and Personalization in Sparse Event Forecasting for Treatment Adherence

Adherence to prescribed treatments is crucial for individuals with chronic conditions to avoid costly or adverse health outcomes. For certain patient groups, intensive lifestyle interventions are vital for enhancing medication adherence. Accurate forecasting of treatment adherence can open pathways to developing an on-demand intervention tool, enabling timely and personalized support. With the increasing popularity of smartphones and wearables, it is now easier than ever to develop and deploy smart activity monitoring systems. However, effective forecasting systems for treatment adherence based on wearable sensors are still not widely available. We close this gap by proposing Adherence Forecasting and Intervention with Machine Intelligence (AIMI). AIMI is a knowledge-guided adherence forecasting system that leverages smartphone sensors and previous medication history to estimate the likelihood of forgetting to take a prescribed medication. A user study was conducted with 27 participants who took daily medications to manage their cardiovascular diseases. We designed and developed CNN and LSTM-based forecasting models with various combinations of input features and found that LSTM models can forecast medication adherence with an accuracy of 0.932 and an F-1 score of 0.936. Moreover, through a series of ablation studies involving convolutional and recurrent neural network architectures, we demonstrate that leveraging known knowledge about future and personalized training enhances the accuracy of medication adherence forecasting. Code available: https://github.com/ab9mamun/AIMI.

  • 3 authors
·
Mar 20 2

Hedging Properties of Algorithmic Investment Strategies using Long Short-Term Memory and Time Series models for Equity Indices

This paper proposes a novel approach to hedging portfolios of risky assets when financial markets are affected by financial turmoils. We introduce a completely novel approach to diversification activity not on the level of single assets but on the level of ensemble algorithmic investment strategies (AIS) built based on the prices of these assets. We employ four types of diverse theoretical models (LSTM - Long Short-Term Memory, ARIMA-GARCH - Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average - Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity, momentum, and contrarian) to generate price forecasts, which are then used to produce investment signals in single and complex AIS. In such a way, we are able to verify the diversification potential of different types of investment strategies consisting of various assets (energy commodities, precious metals, cryptocurrencies, or soft commodities) in hedging ensemble AIS built for equity indices (S&P 500 index). Empirical data used in this study cover the period between 2004 and 2022. Our main conclusion is that LSTM-based strategies outperform the other models and that the best diversifier for the AIS built for the S&P 500 index is the AIS built for Bitcoin. Finally, we test the LSTM model for a higher frequency of data (1 hour). We conclude that it outperforms the results obtained using daily data.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 27, 2023

DeepHateExplainer: Explainable Hate Speech Detection in Under-resourced Bengali Language

The exponential growths of social media and micro-blogging sites not only provide platforms for empowering freedom of expressions and individual voices, but also enables people to express anti-social behaviour like online harassment, cyberbullying, and hate speech. Numerous works have been proposed to utilize textual data for social and anti-social behaviour analysis, by predicting the contexts mostly for highly-resourced languages like English. However, some languages are under-resourced, e.g., South Asian languages like Bengali, that lack computational resources for accurate natural language processing (NLP). In this paper, we propose an explainable approach for hate speech detection from the under-resourced Bengali language, which we called DeepHateExplainer. Bengali texts are first comprehensively preprocessed, before classifying them into political, personal, geopolitical, and religious hates using a neural ensemble method of transformer-based neural architectures (i.e., monolingual Bangla BERT-base, multilingual BERT-cased/uncased, and XLM-RoBERTa). Important(most and least) terms are then identified using sensitivity analysis and layer-wise relevance propagation(LRP), before providing human-interpretable explanations. Finally, we compute comprehensiveness and sufficiency scores to measure the quality of explanations w.r.t faithfulness. Evaluations against machine learning~(linear and tree-based models) and neural networks (i.e., CNN, Bi-LSTM, and Conv-LSTM with word embeddings) baselines yield F1-scores of 78%, 91%, 89%, and 84%, for political, personal, geopolitical, and religious hates, respectively, outperforming both ML and DNN baselines.

  • 9 authors
·
Dec 28, 2020

REDAffectiveLM: Leveraging Affect Enriched Embedding and Transformer-based Neural Language Model for Readers' Emotion Detection

Technological advancements in web platforms allow people to express and share emotions towards textual write-ups written and shared by others. This brings about different interesting domains for analysis; emotion expressed by the writer and emotion elicited from the readers. In this paper, we propose a novel approach for Readers' Emotion Detection from short-text documents using a deep learning model called REDAffectiveLM. Within state-of-the-art NLP tasks, it is well understood that utilizing context-specific representations from transformer-based pre-trained language models helps achieve improved performance. Within this affective computing task, we explore how incorporating affective information can further enhance performance. Towards this, we leverage context-specific and affect enriched representations by using a transformer-based pre-trained language model in tandem with affect enriched Bi-LSTM+Attention. For empirical evaluation, we procure a new dataset REN-20k, besides using RENh-4k and SemEval-2007. We evaluate the performance of our REDAffectiveLM rigorously across these datasets, against a vast set of state-of-the-art baselines, where our model consistently outperforms baselines and obtains statistically significant results. Our results establish that utilizing affect enriched representation along with context-specific representation within a neural architecture can considerably enhance readers' emotion detection. Since the impact of affect enrichment specifically in readers' emotion detection isn't well explored, we conduct a detailed analysis over affect enriched Bi-LSTM+Attention using qualitative and quantitative model behavior evaluation techniques. We observe that compared to conventional semantic embedding, affect enriched embedding increases ability of the network to effectively identify and assign weightage to key terms responsible for readers' emotion detection.

  • 5 authors
·
Jan 21, 2023

The Languini Kitchen: Enabling Language Modelling Research at Different Scales of Compute

The Languini Kitchen serves as both a research collective and codebase designed to empower researchers with limited computational resources to contribute meaningfully to the field of language modelling. We introduce an experimental protocol that enables model comparisons based on equivalent compute, measured in accelerator hours. The number of tokens on which a model is trained is defined by the model's throughput and the chosen compute class. Notably, this approach avoids constraints on critical hyperparameters which affect total parameters or floating-point operations. For evaluation, we pre-process an existing large, diverse, and high-quality dataset of books that surpasses existing academic benchmarks in quality, diversity, and document length. On it, we compare methods based on their empirical scaling trends which are estimated through experiments at various levels of compute. This work also provides two baseline models: a feed-forward model derived from the GPT-2 architecture and a recurrent model in the form of a novel LSTM with ten-fold throughput. While the GPT baseline achieves better perplexity throughout all our levels of compute, our LSTM baseline exhibits a predictable and more favourable scaling law. This is due to the improved throughput and the need for fewer training tokens to achieve the same decrease in test perplexity. Extrapolating the scaling laws leads of both models results in an intersection at roughly 50,000 accelerator hours. We hope this work can serve as the foundation for meaningful and reproducible language modelling research.

  • 8 authors
·
Sep 20, 2023 1

Applying Dimensionality Reduction as Precursor to LSTM-CNN Models for Classifying Imagery and Motor Signals in ECoG-Based BCIs

Motor impairments, frequently caused by neurological incidents like strokes or traumatic brain injuries, present substantial obstacles in rehabilitation therapy. This research aims to elevate the field by optimizing motor imagery classification algorithms within Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCIs). By improving the efficiency of BCIs, we offer a novel approach that holds significant promise for enhancing motor rehabilitation outcomes. Utilizing unsupervised techniques for dimensionality reduction, namely Uniform Manifold Approximation and Projection (UMAP) coupled with K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), we evaluate the necessity of employing supervised methods such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) for classification tasks. Importantly, participants who exhibited high KNN scores following UMAP dimensionality reduction also achieved high accuracy in supervised deep learning (DL) models. Due to individualized model requirements and massive neural training data, dimensionality reduction becomes an effective preprocessing step that minimizes the need for extensive data labeling and supervised deep learning techniques. This approach has significant implications not only for targeted therapies in motor dysfunction but also for addressing regulatory, safety, and reliability concerns in the rapidly evolving BCI field.

  • 1 authors
·
Nov 22, 2023

Classification Benchmarks for Under-resourced Bengali Language based on Multichannel Convolutional-LSTM Network

Exponential growths of social media and micro-blogging sites not only provide platforms for empowering freedom of expressions and individual voices but also enables people to express anti-social behaviour like online harassment, cyberbullying, and hate speech. Numerous works have been proposed to utilize these data for social and anti-social behaviours analysis, document characterization, and sentiment analysis by predicting the contexts mostly for highly resourced languages such as English. However, there are languages that are under-resources, e.g., South Asian languages like Bengali, Tamil, Assamese, Telugu that lack of computational resources for the NLP tasks. In this paper, we provide several classification benchmarks for Bengali, an under-resourced language. We prepared three datasets of expressing hate, commonly used topics, and opinions for hate speech detection, document classification, and sentiment analysis, respectively. We built the largest Bengali word embedding models to date based on 250 million articles, which we call BengFastText. We perform three different experiments, covering document classification, sentiment analysis, and hate speech detection. We incorporate word embeddings into a Multichannel Convolutional-LSTM (MConv-LSTM) network for predicting different types of hate speech, document classification, and sentiment analysis. Experiments demonstrate that BengFastText can capture the semantics of words from respective contexts correctly. Evaluations against several baseline embedding models, e.g., Word2Vec and GloVe yield up to 92.30%, 82.25%, and 90.45% F1-scores in case of document classification, sentiment analysis, and hate speech detection, respectively during 5-fold cross-validation tests.

  • 4 authors
·
Apr 11, 2020

A Time Series Analysis-Based Stock Price Prediction Using Machine Learning and Deep Learning Models

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has always been a challenging task for the researchers. While the advocates of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) believe that it is impossible to design any predictive framework that can accurately predict the movement of stock prices, there are seminal work in the literature that have clearly demonstrated that the seemingly random movement patterns in the time series of a stock price can be predicted with a high level of accuracy. Design of such predictive models requires choice of appropriate variables, right transformation methods of the variables, and tuning of the parameters of the models. In this work, we present a very robust and accurate framework of stock price prediction that consists of an agglomeration of statistical, machine learning and deep learning models. We use the daily stock price data, collected at five minutes interval of time, of a very well known company that is listed in the National Stock Exchange (NSE) of India. The granular data is aggregated into three slots in a day, and the aggregated data is used for building and training the forecasting models. We contend that the agglomerative approach of model building that uses a combination of statistical, machine learning, and deep learning approaches, can very effectively learn from the volatile and random movement patterns in a stock price data. We build eight classification and eight regression models based on statistical and machine learning approaches. In addition to these models, a deep learning regression model using a long-and-short-term memory (LSTM) network is also built. Extensive results have been presented on the performance of these models, and the results are critically analyzed.

  • 2 authors
·
Apr 17, 2020

Multimodal Deep Models for Predicting Affective Responses Evoked by Movies

The goal of this study is to develop and analyze multimodal models for predicting experienced affective responses of viewers watching movie clips. We develop hybrid multimodal prediction models based on both the video and audio of the clips. For the video content, we hypothesize that both image content and motion are crucial features for evoked emotion prediction. To capture such information, we extract features from RGB frames and optical flow using pre-trained neural networks. For the audio model, we compute an enhanced set of low-level descriptors including intensity, loudness, cepstrum, linear predictor coefficients, pitch and voice quality. Both visual and audio features are then concatenated to create audio-visual features, which are used to predict the evoked emotion. To classify the movie clips into the corresponding affective response categories, we propose two approaches based on deep neural network models. The first one is based on fully connected layers without memory on the time component, the second incorporates the sequential dependency with a long short-term memory recurrent neural network (LSTM). We perform a thorough analysis of the importance of each feature set. Our experiments reveal that in our set-up, predicting emotions at each time step independently gives slightly better accuracy performance than with the LSTM. Interestingly, we also observe that the optical flow is more informative than the RGB in videos, and overall, models using audio features are more accurate than those based on video features when making the final prediction of evoked emotions.

  • 3 authors
·
Sep 15, 2019

Machine Learning for UAV Propeller Fault Detection based on a Hybrid Data Generation Model

This paper describes the development of an on-board data-driven system that can monitor and localize the fault in a quadrotor unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and at the same time, evaluate the degree of damage of the fault under real scenarios. To achieve offline training data generation, a hybrid approach is proposed for the development of a virtual data-generative model using a combination of data-driven models as well as well-established dynamic models that describe the kinematics of the UAV. To effectively represent the drop in performance of a faulty propeller, a variation of the deep neural network, a LSTM network is proposed. With the RPM of the propeller as input and based on the fault condition of the propeller, the proposed propeller model estimates the resultant torque and thrust. Then, flight datasets of the UAV under various fault scenarios are generated via simulation using the developed data-generative model. Lastly, a fault classifier using a CNN model is proposed to identify as well as evaluate the degree of damage to the damaged propeller. The scope of this paper focuses on the identification of faulty propellers and classification of the fault level for quadrotor UAVs using RPM as well as flight data. Doing so allows for early minor fault detection to prevent serious faults from occurring if the fault is left unrepaired. To further validate the workability of this approach outside of simulation, a real-flight test is conducted indoors. The real flight data is collected and a simulation to real sim-real test is conducted. Due to the imperfections in the build of our experimental UAV, a slight calibration approach to our simulation model is further proposed and the experimental results obtained show that our trained model can identify the location of propeller fault as well as the degree/type of damage. Currently, the diagnosis accuracy on the testing set is over 80%.

  • 5 authors
·
Feb 3, 2023

Deep Learning Models for Arrhythmia Classification Using Stacked Time-frequency Scalogram Images from ECG Signals

Electrocardiograms (ECGs), a medical monitoring technology recording cardiac activity, are widely used for diagnosing cardiac arrhythmia. The diagnosis is based on the analysis of the deformation of the signal shapes due to irregular heart rates associated with heart diseases. Due to the infeasibility of manual examination of large volumes of ECG data, this paper aims to propose an automated AI based system for ECG-based arrhythmia classification. To this front, a deep learning based solution has been proposed for ECG-based arrhythmia classification. Twelve lead electrocardiograms (ECG) of length 10 sec from 45, 152 individuals from Shaoxing People's Hospital (SPH) dataset from PhysioNet with four different types of arrhythmias were used. The sampling frequency utilized was 500 Hz. Median filtering was used to preprocess the ECG signals. For every 1 sec of ECG signal, the time-frequency (TF) scalogram was estimated and stacked row wise to obtain a single image from 12 channels, resulting in 10 stacked TF scalograms for each ECG signal. These stacked TF scalograms are fed to the pretrained convolutional neural network (CNN), 1D CNN, and 1D CNN-LSTM (Long short-term memory) models, for arrhythmia classification. The fine-tuned CNN models obtained the best test accuracy of about 98% followed by 95% test accuracy by basic CNN-LSTM in arrhythmia classification.

  • 2 authors
·
Nov 30, 2023

A Daily Tourism Demand Prediction Framework Based on Multi-head Attention CNN: The Case of The Foreign Entrant in South Korea

Developing an accurate tourism forecasting model is essential for making desirable policy decisions for tourism management. Early studies on tourism management focus on discovering external factors related to tourism demand. Recent studies utilize deep learning in demand forecasting along with these external factors. They mainly use recursive neural network models such as LSTM and RNN for their frameworks. However, these models are not suitable for use in forecasting tourism demand. This is because tourism demand is strongly affected by changes in various external factors, and recursive neural network models have limitations in handling these multivariate inputs. We propose a multi-head attention CNN model (MHAC) for addressing these limitations. The MHAC uses 1D-convolutional neural network to analyze temporal patterns and the attention mechanism to reflect correlations between input variables. This model makes it possible to extract spatiotemporal characteristics from time-series data of various variables. We apply our forecasting framework to predict inbound tourist changes in South Korea by considering external factors such as politics, disease, season, and attraction of Korean culture. The performance results of extensive experiments show that our method outperforms other deep-learning-based prediction frameworks in South Korea tourism forecasting.

  • 5 authors
·
Dec 1, 2021

RP-DNN: A Tweet level propagation context based deep neural networks for early rumor detection in Social Media

Early rumor detection (ERD) on social media platform is very challenging when limited, incomplete and noisy information is available. Most of the existing methods have largely worked on event-level detection that requires the collection of posts relevant to a specific event and relied only on user-generated content. They are not appropriate to detect rumor sources in the very early stages, before an event unfolds and becomes widespread. In this paper, we address the task of ERD at the message level. We present a novel hybrid neural network architecture, which combines a task-specific character-based bidirectional language model and stacked Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to represent textual contents and social-temporal contexts of input source tweets, for modelling propagation patterns of rumors in the early stages of their development. We apply multi-layered attention models to jointly learn attentive context embeddings over multiple context inputs. Our experiments employ a stringent leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) evaluation setup on seven publicly available real-life rumor event data sets. Our models achieve state-of-the-art(SoA) performance for detecting unseen rumors on large augmented data which covers more than 12 events and 2,967 rumors. An ablation study is conducted to understand the relative contribution of each component of our proposed model.

  • 4 authors
·
Feb 28, 2020

Writer adaptation for offline text recognition: An exploration of neural network-based methods

Handwriting recognition has seen significant success with the use of deep learning. However, a persistent shortcoming of neural networks is that they are not well-equipped to deal with shifting data distributions. In the field of handwritten text recognition (HTR), this shows itself in poor recognition accuracy for writers that are not similar to those seen during training. An ideal HTR model should be adaptive to new writing styles in order to handle the vast amount of possible writing styles. In this paper, we explore how HTR models can be made writer adaptive by using only a handful of examples from a new writer (e.g., 16 examples) for adaptation. Two HTR architectures are used as base models, using a ResNet backbone along with either an LSTM or Transformer sequence decoder. Using these base models, two methods are considered to make them writer adaptive: 1) model-agnostic meta-learning (MAML), an algorithm commonly used for tasks such as few-shot classification, and 2) writer codes, an idea originating from automatic speech recognition. Results show that an HTR-specific version of MAML known as MetaHTR improves performance compared to the baseline with a 1.4 to 2.0 improvement in word error rate (WER). The improvement due to writer adaptation is between 0.2 and 0.7 WER, where a deeper model seems to lend itself better to adaptation using MetaHTR than a shallower model. However, applying MetaHTR to larger HTR models or sentence-level HTR may become prohibitive due to its high computational and memory requirements. Lastly, writer codes based on learned features or Hinge statistical features did not lead to improved recognition performance.

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 11, 2023

Recoding latent sentence representations -- Dynamic gradient-based activation modification in RNNs

In Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs), encoding information in a suboptimal or erroneous way can impact the quality of representations based on later elements in the sequence and subsequently lead to wrong predictions and a worse model performance. In humans, challenging cases like garden path sentences (an instance of this being the infamous "The horse raced past the barn fell") can lead their language understanding astray. However, they are still able to correct their representation accordingly and recover when new information is encountered. Inspired by this, I propose an augmentation to standard RNNs in form of a gradient-based correction mechanism: This way I hope to enable such models to dynamically adapt their inner representation of a sentence, adding a way to correct deviations as soon as they occur. This could therefore lead to more robust models using more flexible representations, even during inference time. I conduct different experiments in the context of language modeling, where the impact of using such a mechanism is examined in detail. To this end, I look at modifications based on different kinds of time-dependent error signals and how they influence the model performance. Furthermore, this work contains a study of the model's confidence in its predictions during training and for challenging test samples and the effect of the manipulation thereof. Lastly, I also study the difference in behavior of these novel models compared to a standard LSTM baseline and investigate error cases in detail to identify points of future research. I show that while the proposed approach comes with promising theoretical guarantees and an appealing intuition, it is only able to produce minor improvements over the baseline due to challenges in its practical application and the efficacy of the tested model variants.

  • 1 authors
·
Jan 3, 2021

A Robust Predictive Model for Stock Price Prediction Using Deep Learning and Natural Language Processing

Prediction of future movement of stock prices has been a subject matter of many research work. There is a gamut of literature of technical analysis of stock prices where the objective is to identify patterns in stock price movements and derive profit from it. Improving the prediction accuracy remains the single most challenge in this area of research. We propose a hybrid approach for stock price movement prediction using machine learning, deep learning, and natural language processing. We select the NIFTY 50 index values of the National Stock Exchange of India, and collect its daily price movement over a period of three years (2015 to 2017). Based on the data of 2015 to 2017, we build various predictive models using machine learning, and then use those models to predict the closing value of NIFTY 50 for the period January 2018 till June 2019 with a prediction horizon of one week. For predicting the price movement patterns, we use a number of classification techniques, while for predicting the actual closing price of the stock, various regression models have been used. We also build a Long and Short-Term Memory - based deep learning network for predicting the closing price of the stocks and compare the prediction accuracies of the machine learning models with the LSTM model. We further augment the predictive model by integrating a sentiment analysis module on twitter data to correlate the public sentiment of stock prices with the market sentiment. This has been done using twitter sentiment and previous week closing values to predict stock price movement for the next week. We tested our proposed scheme using a cross validation method based on Self Organizing Fuzzy Neural Networks and found extremely interesting results.

  • 2 authors
·
Dec 9, 2019

Language Modeling on a SpiNNaker 2 Neuromorphic Chip

As large language models continue to scale in size rapidly, so too does the computational power required to run them. Event-based networks on neuromorphic devices offer a potential way to reduce energy consumption for inference significantly. However, to date, most event-based networks that can run on neuromorphic hardware, including spiking neural networks (SNNs), have not achieved task performance even on par with LSTM models for language modeling. As a result, language modeling on neuromorphic devices has seemed a distant prospect. In this work, we demonstrate the first-ever implementation of a language model on a neuromorphic device - specifically the SpiNNaker 2 chip - based on a recently published event-based architecture called the EGRU. SpiNNaker 2 is a many-core neuromorphic chip designed for large-scale asynchronous processing, while the EGRU is architected to leverage such hardware efficiently while maintaining competitive task performance. This implementation marks the first time a neuromorphic language model matches LSTMs, setting the stage for taking task performance to the level of large language models. We also demonstrate results on a gesture recognition task based on inputs from a DVS camera. Overall, our results showcase the feasibility of this neuro-inspired neural network in hardware, highlighting significant gains versus conventional hardware in energy efficiency for the common use case of single batch inference.

  • 7 authors
·
Dec 14, 2023

AntiPhishStack: LSTM-based Stacked Generalization Model for Optimized Phishing URL Detection

The escalating reliance on revolutionary online web services has introduced heightened security risks, with persistent challenges posed by phishing despite extensive security measures. Traditional phishing systems, reliant on machine learning and manual features, struggle with evolving tactics. Recent advances in deep learning offer promising avenues for tackling novel phishing challenges and malicious URLs. This paper introduces a two-phase stack generalized model named AntiPhishStack, designed to detect phishing sites. The model leverages the learning of URLs and character-level TF-IDF features symmetrically, enhancing its ability to combat emerging phishing threats. In Phase I, features are trained on a base machine learning classifier, employing K-fold cross-validation for robust mean prediction. Phase II employs a two-layered stacked-based LSTM network with five adaptive optimizers for dynamic compilation, ensuring premier prediction on these features. Additionally, the symmetrical predictions from both phases are optimized and integrated to train a meta-XGBoost classifier, contributing to a final robust prediction. The significance of this work lies in advancing phishing detection with AntiPhishStack, operating without prior phishing-specific feature knowledge. Experimental validation on two benchmark datasets, comprising benign and phishing or malicious URLs, demonstrates the model's exceptional performance, achieving a notable 96.04% accuracy compared to existing studies. This research adds value to the ongoing discourse on symmetry and asymmetry in information security and provides a forward-thinking solution for enhancing network security in the face of evolving cyber threats.

  • 5 authors
·
Jan 16, 2024

Binary and Multitask Classification Model for Dutch Anaphora Resolution: Die/Dat Prediction

The correct use of Dutch pronouns 'die' and 'dat' is a stumbling block for both native and non-native speakers of Dutch due to the multiplicity of syntactic functions and the dependency on the antecedent's gender and number. Drawing on previous research conducted on neural context-dependent dt-mistake correction models (Heyman et al. 2018), this study constructs the first neural network model for Dutch demonstrative and relative pronoun resolution that specifically focuses on the correction and part-of-speech prediction of these two pronouns. Two separate datasets are built with sentences obtained from, respectively, the Dutch Europarl corpus (Koehn 2015) - which contains the proceedings of the European Parliament from 1996 to the present - and the SoNaR corpus (Oostdijk et al. 2013) - which contains Dutch texts from a variety of domains such as newspapers, blogs and legal texts. Firstly, a binary classification model solely predicts the correct 'die' or 'dat'. The classifier with a bidirectional long short-term memory architecture achieves 84.56% accuracy. Secondly, a multitask classification model simultaneously predicts the correct 'die' or 'dat' and its part-of-speech tag. The model containing a combination of a sentence and context encoder with both a bidirectional long short-term memory architecture results in 88.63% accuracy for die/dat prediction and 87.73% accuracy for part-of-speech prediction. More evenly-balanced data, larger word embeddings, an extra bidirectional long short-term memory layer and integrated part-of-speech knowledge positively affects die/dat prediction performance, while a context encoder architecture raises part-of-speech prediction performance. This study shows promising results and can serve as a starting point for future research on machine learning models for Dutch anaphora resolution.

  • 3 authors
·
Jan 9, 2020

A Hybrid Deep Learning-based Approach for Optimal Genotype by Environment Selection

Precise crop yield prediction is essential for improving agricultural practices and ensuring crop resilience in varying climates. Integrating weather data across the growing season, especially for different crop varieties, is crucial for understanding their adaptability in the face of climate change. In the MLCAS2021 Crop Yield Prediction Challenge, we utilized a dataset comprising 93,028 training records to forecast yields for 10,337 test records, covering 159 locations across 28 U.S. states and Canadian provinces over 13 years (2003-2015). This dataset included details on 5,838 distinct genotypes and daily weather data for a 214-day growing season, enabling comprehensive analysis. As one of the winning teams, we developed two novel convolutional neural network (CNN) architectures: the CNN-DNN model, combining CNN and fully-connected networks, and the CNN-LSTM-DNN model, with an added LSTM layer for weather variables. Leveraging the Generalized Ensemble Method (GEM), we determined optimal model weights, resulting in superior performance compared to baseline models. The GEM model achieved lower RMSE (5.55% to 39.88%), reduced MAE (5.34% to 43.76%), and higher correlation coefficients (1.1% to 10.79%) when evaluated on test data. We applied the CNN-DNN model to identify top-performing genotypes for various locations and weather conditions, aiding genotype selection based on weather variables. Our data-driven approach is valuable for scenarios with limited testing years. Additionally, a feature importance analysis using RMSE change highlighted the significance of location, MG, year, and genotype, along with the importance of weather variables MDNI and AP.

  • 4 authors
·
Sep 22, 2023

Predicting Stock Market Time-Series Data using CNN-LSTM Neural Network Model

Stock market is often important as it represents the ownership claims on businesses. Without sufficient stocks, a company cannot perform well in finance. Predicting a stock market performance of a company is nearly hard because every time the prices of a company stock keeps changing and not constant. So, its complex to determine the stock data. But if the previous performance of a company in stock market is known, then we can track the data and provide predictions to stockholders in order to wisely take decisions on handling the stocks to a company. To handle this, many machine learning models have been invented but they didn't succeed due to many reasons like absence of advanced libraries, inaccuracy of model when made to train with real time data and much more. So, to track the patterns and the features of data, a CNN-LSTM Neural Network can be made. Recently, CNN is now used in Natural Language Processing (NLP) based applications, so by identifying the features from stock data and converting them into tensors, we can obtain the features and then send it to LSTM neural network to find the patterns and thereby predicting the stock market for given period of time. The accuracy of the CNN-LSTM NN model is found to be high even when allowed to train on real-time stock market data. This paper describes about the features of the custom CNN-LSTM model, experiments we made with the model (like training with stock market datasets, performance comparison with other models) and the end product we obtained at final stage.

  • 4 authors
·
May 21, 2023 1

A New Data Representation Based on Training Data Characteristics to Extract Drug Named-Entity in Medical Text

One essential task in information extraction from the medical corpus is drug name recognition. Compared with text sources come from other domains, the medical text is special and has unique characteristics. In addition, the medical text mining poses more challenges, e.g., more unstructured text, the fast growing of new terms addition, a wide range of name variation for the same drug. The mining is even more challenging due to the lack of labeled dataset sources and external knowledge, as well as multiple token representations for a single drug name that is more common in the real application setting. Although many approaches have been proposed to overwhelm the task, some problems remained with poor F-score performance (less than 0.75). This paper presents a new treatment in data representation techniques to overcome some of those challenges. We propose three data representation techniques based on the characteristics of word distribution and word similarities as a result of word embedding training. The first technique is evaluated with the standard NN model, i.e., MLP (Multi-Layer Perceptrons). The second technique involves two deep network classifiers, i.e., DBN (Deep Belief Networks), and SAE (Stacked Denoising Encoders). The third technique represents the sentence as a sequence that is evaluated with a recurrent NN model, i.e., LSTM (Long Short Term Memory). In extracting the drug name entities, the third technique gives the best F-score performance compared to the state of the art, with its average F-score being 0.8645.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 6, 2016

ResNLS: An Improved Model for Stock Price Forecasting

Stock prices forecasting has always been a challenging task. Although many research projects adopt machine learning and deep learning algorithms to address the problem, few of them pay attention to the varying degrees of dependencies between stock prices. In this paper we introduce a hybrid model that improves stock price prediction by emphasizing the dependencies between adjacent stock prices. The proposed model, ResNLS, is mainly composed of two neural architectures, ResNet and LSTM. ResNet serves as a feature extractor to identify dependencies between stock prices across time windows, while LSTM analyses the initial time-series data with the combination of dependencies which considered as residuals. In predicting the SSE Composite Index, our experiment reveals that when the closing price data for the previous 5 consecutive trading days is used as the input, the performance of the model (ResNLS-5) is optimal compared to those with other inputs. Furthermore, ResNLS-5 outperforms vanilla CNN, RNN, LSTM, and BiLSTM models in terms of prediction accuracy. It also demonstrates at least a 20% improvement over the current state-of-the-art baselines. To verify whether ResNLS-5 can help clients effectively avoid risks and earn profits in the stock market, we construct a quantitative trading framework for back testing. The experimental results show that the trading strategy based on predictions from ResNLS-5 can successfully mitigate losses during declining stock prices and generate profits in the periods of rising stock prices.

  • 3 authors
·
Dec 1, 2023

MambAttention: Mamba with Multi-Head Attention for Generalizable Single-Channel Speech Enhancement

With the advent of new sequence models like Mamba and xLSTM, several studies have shown that these models match or outperform state-of-the-art models in single-channel speech enhancement, automatic speech recognition, and self-supervised audio representation learning. However, prior research has demonstrated that sequence models like LSTM and Mamba tend to overfit to the training set. To address this issue, previous works have shown that adding self-attention to LSTMs substantially improves generalization performance for single-channel speech enhancement. Nevertheless, neither the concept of hybrid Mamba and time-frequency attention models nor their generalization performance have been explored for speech enhancement. In this paper, we propose a novel hybrid architecture, MambAttention, which combines Mamba and shared time- and frequency-multi-head attention modules for generalizable single-channel speech enhancement. To train our model, we introduce VoiceBank+Demand Extended (VB-DemandEx), a dataset inspired by VoiceBank+Demand but with more challenging noise types and lower signal-to-noise ratios. Trained on VB-DemandEx, our proposed MambAttention model significantly outperforms existing state-of-the-art LSTM-, xLSTM-, Mamba-, and Conformer-based systems of similar complexity across all reported metrics on two out-of-domain datasets: DNS 2020 and EARS-WHAM_v2, while matching their performance on the in-domain dataset VB-DemandEx. Ablation studies highlight the role of weight sharing between the time- and frequency-multi-head attention modules for generalization performance. Finally, we explore integrating the shared time- and frequency-multi-head attention modules with LSTM and xLSTM, which yields a notable performance improvement on the out-of-domain datasets. However, our MambAttention model remains superior on both out-of-domain datasets across all reported evaluation metrics.

  • 4 authors
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Jul 1

RoBERTa-BiLSTM: A Context-Aware Hybrid Model for Sentiment Analysis

Effectively analyzing the comments to uncover latent intentions holds immense value in making strategic decisions across various domains. However, several challenges hinder the process of sentiment analysis including the lexical diversity exhibited in comments, the presence of long dependencies within the text, encountering unknown symbols and words, and dealing with imbalanced datasets. Moreover, existing sentiment analysis tasks mostly leveraged sequential models to encode the long dependent texts and it requires longer execution time as it processes the text sequentially. In contrast, the Transformer requires less execution time due to its parallel processing nature. In this work, we introduce a novel hybrid deep learning model, RoBERTa-BiLSTM, which combines the Robustly Optimized BERT Pretraining Approach (RoBERTa) with Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BiLSTM) networks. RoBERTa is utilized to generate meaningful word embedding vectors, while BiLSTM effectively captures the contextual semantics of long-dependent texts. The RoBERTa-BiLSTM hybrid model leverages the strengths of both sequential and Transformer models to enhance performance in sentiment analysis. We conducted experiments using datasets from IMDb, Twitter US Airline, and Sentiment140 to evaluate the proposed model against existing state-of-the-art methods. Our experimental findings demonstrate that the RoBERTa-BiLSTM model surpasses baseline models (e.g., BERT, RoBERTa-base, RoBERTa-GRU, and RoBERTa-LSTM), achieving accuracies of 80.74%, 92.36%, and 82.25% on the Twitter US Airline, IMDb, and Sentiment140 datasets, respectively. Additionally, the model achieves F1-scores of 80.73%, 92.35%, and 82.25% on the same datasets, respectively.

  • 4 authors
·
Jun 1, 2024

Reservoir Computing via Quantum Recurrent Neural Networks

Recent developments in quantum computing and machine learning have propelled the interdisciplinary study of quantum machine learning. Sequential modeling is an important task with high scientific and commercial value. Existing VQC or QNN-based methods require significant computational resources to perform the gradient-based optimization of a larger number of quantum circuit parameters. The major drawback is that such quantum gradient calculation requires a large amount of circuit evaluation, posing challenges in current near-term quantum hardware and simulation software. In this work, we approach sequential modeling by applying a reservoir computing (RC) framework to quantum recurrent neural networks (QRNN-RC) that are based on classical RNN, LSTM and GRU. The main idea to this RC approach is that the QRNN with randomly initialized weights is treated as a dynamical system and only the final classical linear layer is trained. Our numerical simulations show that the QRNN-RC can reach results comparable to fully trained QRNN models for several function approximation and time series prediction tasks. Since the QRNN training complexity is significantly reduced, the proposed model trains notably faster. In this work we also compare to corresponding classical RNN-based RC implementations and show that the quantum version learns faster by requiring fewer training epochs in most cases. Our results demonstrate a new possibility to utilize quantum neural network for sequential modeling with greater quantum hardware efficiency, an important design consideration for noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) computers.

  • 5 authors
·
Nov 4, 2022