Daily Papers

Epidemiologists aiming to model the dynamics of global events face a significant challenge in identifying the factors linked with anomalies such as disease outbreaks. In this paper, we present a novel method for identifying the most important development sectors sensitive to disease outbreaks by using global development indicators as markers. We use statistical methods to assess the causative linkages between these indicators and disease outbreaks, as well as to find the most often ranked indicators. We used data imputation techniques in addition to statistical analysis to convert raw real-world data sets into meaningful data for causal inference. The application of various algorithms for the detection of causal linkages between the indicators is the subject of this research. Despite the fact that disparities in governmental policies between countries account for differences in causal linkages, several indicators emerge as important determinants sensitive to disease outbreaks over the world in the 21st Century.

Understanding the characteristics of public attention and sentiment is an essential prerequisite for appropriate crisis management during adverse health events. This is even more crucial during a pandemic such as COVID-19, as primary responsibility of risk management is not centralized to a single institution, but distributed across society. While numerous studies utilize Twitter data in descriptive or predictive context during COVID-19 pandemic, causal modeling of public attention has not been investigated. In this study, we propose a causal inference approach to discover and quantify causal relationships between pandemic characteristics (e.g. number of infections and deaths) and Twitter activity as well as public sentiment. Our results show that the proposed method can successfully capture the epidemiological domain knowledge and identify variables that affect public attention and sentiment. We believe our work contributes to the field of infodemiology by distinguishing events that correlate with public attention from events that cause public attention.

The cycle of scientific discovery is frequently bottlenecked by the slow, manual creation of software to support computational experiments. To address this, we present an AI system that creates expert-level scientific software whose goal is to maximize a quality metric. The system uses a Large Language Model (LLM) and Tree Search (TS) to systematically improve the quality metric and intelligently navigate the large space of possible solutions. The system achieves expert-level results when it explores and integrates complex research ideas from external sources. The effectiveness of tree search is demonstrated across a wide range of benchmarks. In bioinformatics, it discovered 40 novel methods for single-cell data analysis that outperformed the top human-developed methods on a public leaderboard. In epidemiology, it generated 14 models that outperformed the CDC ensemble and all other individual models for forecasting COVID-19 hospitalizations. Our method also produced state-of-the-art software for geospatial analysis, neural activity prediction in zebrafish, time series forecasting and numerical solution of integrals. By devising and implementing novel solutions to diverse tasks, the system represents a significant step towards accelerating scientific progress.

The rapid evolution of artificial intelligence (AI), together with the increased availability of social media and news for epidemiological surveillance, are marking a pivotal moment in epidemiology and public health research. Leveraging the power of generative AI, we use an ensemble approach which incorporates multiple Large Language Models (LLMs) to extract valuable actionable epidemiological information from the World Health Organization (WHO) Disease Outbreak News (DONs). DONs is a collection of regular reports on global outbreaks curated by the WHO and the adopted decision-making processes to respond to them. The extracted information is made available in a daily-updated dataset and a knowledge graph, referred to as eKG, derived to provide a nuanced representation of the public health domain knowledge. We provide an overview of this new dataset and describe the structure of eKG, along with the services and tools used to access and utilize the data that we are building on top. These innovative data resources open altogether new opportunities for epidemiological research, and the analysis and surveillance of disease outbreaks.

Epidemiologists often wish to estimate quantities that are easy to communicate and correspond to the results of realistic public health scenarios. Methods from causal inference can answer these questions. We adopt the language of potential outcomes under Rubin's original Bayesian framework and show that the parametric g-formula is easily amenable to a Bayesian approach. We show that the frequentist properties of the Bayesian g-formula suggest it improves the accuracy of estimates of causal effects in small samples or when data may be sparse. We demonstrate our approach to estimate the effect of environmental tobacco smoke on body mass index z-scores among children aged 4-9 years who were enrolled in a longitudinal birth cohort in New York, USA. We give a general algorithm and supply SAS and Stan code that can be adopted to implement our computational approach in both time-fixed and longitudinal data.

A compartmental deterministic model that allows (1) immunity from two stages of infection and carriage, and (2) disease induced death, is used in studying the dynamics of meningitis epidemic process in a closed population. It allows for difference in the transmission rate of infection to a susceptible by a carrier and an infective. It is generalized to allow a proportion ({\phi}) of those susceptibles infected to progress directly to infectives in stage I. Both models are used in this study. The threshold conditions for the spread of carrier and infectives in stage I are derived for the two models. Sensitivity analysis is performed on the reproductive number derived from the next generation matrix. The case-carrier ratio profile for various parameters and threshold values are shown. So also are the graphs of the total number ever infected as influenced by {\epsilon} and {\phi}. The infection transmission rate (eta), the odds in favor of a carrier, over an infective, in transmitting an infection to a susceptible ({\epsilon}) and the carrier conversion rate ({\phi}) to an infective in stage I, are identified as key parameters that should be subject of attention for any control intervention strategy. The case-carrier ratio profiles provide evidence of a critical case-carrier ratio attained before the number of reported cases grows to an epidemic level. They also provide visual evidence of epidemiological context, in this case, epidemic incidence (in later part of dry season) and endemic incidence (during rainy season). Results from total proportion ever infected suggest that the model, in which {\phi}=0 obtained, can adequately represent, in essence, the generalized model for this study.

Conventional surveillance systems for monitoring infectious diseases, such as influenza, face challenges due to shortage of skilled healthcare professionals, remoteness of communities and absence of communication infrastructures. Internet-based approaches for surveillance are appealing logistically as well as economically. Search engine queries and Twitter have been the primarily used data sources in such approaches. The aim of this study is to assess the predictive power of an alternative data source, Instagram. By using 317 weeks of publicly available data from Instagram, we trained several machine learning algorithms to both nowcast and forecast the number of official influenza-like illness incidents in Finland where population-wide official statistics about the weekly incidents are available. In addition to date and hashtag count features of online posts, we were able to utilize also the visual content of the posted images with the help of deep convolutional neural networks. Our best nowcasting model reached a mean absolute error of 11.33 incidents per week and a correlation coefficient of 0.963 on the test data. Forecasting models for predicting 1 week and 2 weeks ahead showed statistical significance as well by reaching correlation coefficients of 0.903 and 0.862, respectively. This study demonstrates how social media and in particular, digital photographs shared in them, can be a valuable source of information for the field of infodemiology.

This study presents a hybrid framework for predicting movie success. The framework integrates multi-task learning (MTL), GPT-based sentiment analysis, and Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) propagation modeling. The study examines limitations in existing approaches. It models static production attributes, information dissemination, and audience sentiment at the same time. The framework uses 5,840 films from 2004 to 2024 and approximate 300,000 user reviews. It shows predictive performance with classification accuracy of 0.964 and regression metrics of MAE 0.388. Ablation analysis indicates component interactions. Selective feature combinations perform better than the comprehensive model. This result questions assumptions about feature integration. The model shows virality patterns between successful and unsuccessful films. Innovations include epidemiological modeling for information diffusion, multidimensional sentiment features from GPT-based analysis, and a shared representation architecture that optimizes multiple success metrics. The framework provides applications in the film production lifecycle. It also contributes to understanding how audience engagement leads to commercial outcomes.

Dengue fever presents a substantial challenge in developing countries where sanitation infrastructure is inadequate. The absence of comprehensive healthcare systems exacerbates the severity of dengue infections, potentially leading to life-threatening circumstances. Rapid response to dengue outbreaks is also challenging due to limited information exchange and integration. While timely dengue outbreak forecasts have the potential to prevent such outbreaks, the majority of dengue prediction studies have predominantly relied on data that impose significant burdens on individual countries for collection. In this study, our aim is to improve health equity in resource-constrained countries by exploring the effectiveness of high-resolution satellite imagery as a nontraditional and readily accessible data source. By leveraging the wealth of publicly available and easily obtainable satellite imagery, we present a scalable satellite extraction framework based on Sentinel Hub, a cloud-based computing platform. Furthermore, we introduce DengueNet, an innovative architecture that combines Vision Transformer, Radiomics, and Long Short-term Memory to extract and integrate spatiotemporal features from satellite images. This enables dengue predictions on an epi-week basis. To evaluate the effectiveness of our proposed method, we conducted experiments on five municipalities in Colombia. We utilized a dataset comprising 780 high-resolution Sentinel-2 satellite images for training and evaluation. The performance of DengueNet was assessed using the mean absolute error (MAE) metric. Across the five municipalities, DengueNet achieved an average MAE of 43.92. Our findings strongly support the efficacy of satellite imagery as a valuable resource for dengue prediction, particularly in informing public health policies within countries where manually collected data is scarce and dengue virus prevalence is severe.

The World Health Organization added Disease X to their shortlist of blueprint priority diseases to represent a hypothetical, unknown pathogen that could cause a future epidemic. During different virus outbreaks of the past, such as COVID-19, Influenza, Lyme Disease, and Zika virus, researchers from various disciplines utilized Google Trends to mine multimodal components of web behavior to study, investigate, and analyze the global awareness, preparedness, and response associated with these respective virus outbreaks. As the world prepares for Disease X, a dataset on web behavior related to Disease X would be crucial to contribute towards the timely advancement of research in this field. Furthermore, none of the prior works in this field have focused on the development of a dataset to compile relevant web behavior data, which would help to prepare for Disease X. To address these research challenges, this work presents a dataset of web behavior related to Disease X, which emerged from different geographic regions of the world, between February 2018 and August 2023. Specifically, this dataset presents the search interests related to Disease X from 94 geographic regions. The dataset was developed by collecting data using Google Trends. The relevant search interests for all these regions for each month in this time range are available in this dataset. This paper also discusses the compliance of this dataset with the FAIR principles of scientific data management. Finally, an analysis of this dataset is presented to uphold the applicability, relevance, and usefulness of this dataset for the investigation of different research questions in the interrelated fields of Big Data, Data Mining, Healthcare, Epidemiology, and Data Analysis with a specific focus on Disease X.

As of writing this paper, COVID-19 (Coronavirus disease 2019) has spread to more than 220 countries and territories. Following the outbreak, the pandemic's seriousness has made people more active on social media, especially on the microblogging platforms such as Twitter and Weibo. The pandemic-specific discourse has remained on-trend on these platforms for months now. Previous studies have confirmed the contributions of such socially generated conversations towards situational awareness of crisis events. The early forecasts of cases are essential to authorities to estimate the requirements of resources needed to cope with the outgrowths of the virus. Therefore, this study attempts to incorporate the public discourse in the design of forecasting models particularly targeted for the steep-hill region of an ongoing wave. We propose a sentiment-involved topic-based latent variables search methodology for designing forecasting models from publicly available Twitter conversations. As a use case, we implement the proposed methodology on Australian COVID-19 daily cases and Twitter conversations generated within the country. Experimental results: (i) show the presence of latent social media variables that Granger-cause the daily COVID-19 confirmed cases, and (ii) confirm that those variables offer additional prediction capability to forecasting models. Further, the results show that the inclusion of social media variables introduces 48.83--51.38% improvements on RMSE over the baseline models. We also release the large-scale COVID-19 specific geotagged global tweets dataset, MegaGeoCOV, to the public anticipating that the geotagged data of this scale would aid in understanding the conversational dynamics of the pandemic through other spatial and temporal contexts.

We address the problem of learning the dynamics of an unknown non-parametric system linking a target and a feature time series. The feature time series is measured on a sparse and irregular grid, while we have access to only a few points of the target time series. Once learned, we can use these dynamics to predict values of the target from the previous values of the feature time series. We frame this task as learning the solution map of a controlled differential equation (CDE). By leveraging the rich theory of signatures, we are able to cast this non-linear problem as a high-dimensional linear regression. We provide an oracle bound on the prediction error which exhibits explicit dependencies on the individual-specific sampling schemes. Our theoretical results are illustrated by simulations which show that our method outperforms existing algorithms for recovering the full time series while being computationally cheap. We conclude by demonstrating its potential on real-world epidemiological data.

The way people respond to messaging from public health organizations on social media can provide insight into public perceptions on critical health issues, especially during a global crisis such as COVID-19. It could be valuable for high-impact organizations such as the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) or the World Health Organization (WHO) to understand how these perceptions impact reception of messaging on health policy recommendations. We collect two datasets of public health messages and their responses from Twitter relating to COVID-19 and Vaccines, and introduce a predictive method which can be used to explore the potential reception of such messages. Specifically, we harness a generative model (GPT-2) to directly predict probable future responses and demonstrate how it can be used to optimize expected reception of important health guidance. Finally, we introduce a novel evaluation scheme with extensive statistical testing which allows us to conclude that our models capture the semantics and sentiment found in actual public health responses.

Clinical trials disruption has always represented a non negligible part of the ending of interventional studies. While the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic has led to an impressive and unprecedented initiation of clinical research, it has also led to considerable disruption of clinical trials in other disease areas, with around 80% of non-COVID-19 trials stopped or interrupted during the pandemic. In many cases the disrupted trials will not have the planned statistical power necessary to yield interpretable results. This paper describes methods to compensate for the information loss arising from trial disruptions by incorporating additional information available from auxiliary data sources. The methods described include the use of auxiliary data on baseline and early outcome data available from the trial itself and frequentist and Bayesian approaches for the incorporation of information from external data sources. The methods are illustrated by application to the analysis of artificial data based on the Primary care pediatrics Learning Activity Nutrition (PLAN) study, a clinical trial assessing a diet and exercise intervention for overweight children, that was affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. We show how all of the methods proposed lead to an increase in precision relative to use of complete case data only.

The timely identification of socio-economic sectors vulnerable to a disease outbreak presents an important challenge to the civic authorities and healthcare workers interested in outbreak mitigation measures. This problem was traditionally solved by studying the aberrances in small-scale healthcare data. In this paper, we leverage data driven models to determine the relationship between the trends of World Development Indicators and occurrence of disease outbreaks using worldwide historical data from 2000-2019, and treat it as a classic supervised classification problem. CART based feature selection was employed in an unorthodox fashion to determine the covariates getting affected by the disease outbreak, thus giving the most vulnerable sectors. The result involves a comprehensive analysis of different classification algorithms and is indicative of the relationship between the disease outbreak occurrence and the magnitudes of various development indicators.

In this article, we conduct data mining to discover the countries, universities and companies, produced or collaborated the most research on Covid-19 since the pandemic started. We present some interesting findings, but despite analysing all available records on COVID-19 from the Web of Science Core Collection, we failed to reach any significant conclusions on how the world responded to the COVID-19 pandemic. Therefore, we increased our analysis to include all available data records on pandemics and epidemics from 1900 to 2020. We discover some interesting results on countries, universities and companies, that produced collaborated most the most in research on pandemic and epidemics. Then we compared the results with the analysing on COVID-19 data records. This has created some interesting findings that are explained and graphically visualised in the article.

The COVID-19 pandemic has accentuated socioeconomic disparities across various racial and ethnic groups in the United States. While previous studies have utilized traditional survey methods like the Household Pulse Survey (HPS) to elucidate these disparities, this paper explores the role of social media platforms in both highlighting and addressing these challenges. Drawing from real-time data sourced from Twitter, we analyzed language patterns related to four major types of adverse experiences: loss of employment income (LI), food scarcity (FS), housing insecurity (HI), and unmet needs for mental health services (UM). We first formulate a sparsity optimization problem that extracts low-level language features from social media data sources. Second, we propose novel constraints on feature similarity exploiting prior knowledge about the similarity of the language patterns among the adverse experiences. The proposed problem is challenging to solve due to the non-convexity objective and non-smoothness penalties. We develop an algorithm based on the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) framework to solve the proposed formulation. Extensive experiments and comparisons to other models on real-world social media and the detection of adverse experiences justify the efficacy of our model.

A comprehensive bibliographic review with R statistical methods of the COVID pandemic in PubMed literature and Web of Science Core Collection, supported with Google Scholar search. In addition, a case study review of emerging new approaches in different regions, using medical literature, academic literature, news articles and other reliable data sources. Public responses of mistrust about privacy data misuse differ across countries, depending on the chosen public communication strategy.

Survey data are self-reported data collected directly from respondents by a questionnaire or an interview and are commonly used in epidemiology. Such data are traditionally collected via a single mode (e.g. face-to-face interview alone), but use of mixed-mode designs (e.g. offering face-to-face interview or online survey) has become more common. This introduces two key challenges. First, individuals may respond differently to the same question depending on the mode; these differences due to measurement are known as 'mode effects'. Second, different individuals may participate via different modes; these differences in sample composition between modes are known as 'mode selection'. Where recognised, mode effects are often handled by straightforward approaches such as conditioning on survey mode. However, while reducing mode effects, this and other equivalent approaches may introduce collider bias in the presence of mode selection. The existence of mode effects and the consequences of na\"ive conditioning may be underappreciated in epidemiology. This paper offers a simple introduction to these challenges using directed acyclic graphs by exploring a range of possible data structures. We discuss the potential implications of using conditioning- or imputation-based approaches and outline the advantages of quantitative bias analyses for dealing with mode effects.

The acute phase of the Covid-19 pandemic has made apparent the need for decision support based upon accurate epidemic modeling. This process is substantially hampered by under-reporting of cases and related data incompleteness issues. In this article we adopt the Bayesian paradigm and synthesize publicly available data via a discrete-time stochastic epidemic modeling framework. The models allow for estimating the total number of infections while accounting for the endemic phase of the pandemic. We assess the prediction of the infection rate utilizing mobility information, notably the principal components of the mobility data. We evaluate variational Bayes in this context and find that Hamiltonian Monte Carlo offers a robust inference alternative for such models. We elaborate upon vector analysis of the epidemic dynamics, thus enriching the traditional tools used for decision making. In particular, we show how certain 2-dimensional plots on the phase plane may yield intuitive information regarding the speed and the type of transmission dynamics. We investigate the potential of a two-stage analysis as a consequence of cutting feedback, for inference on certain functionals of the model parameters. Finally, we show that a point mass on critical parameters is overly restrictive and investigate informative priors as a suitable alternative.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, a significant effort has gone into developing ML-driven epidemic forecasting techniques. However, benchmarks do not exist to claim if a new AI/ML technique is better than the existing ones. The "covid-forecast-hub" is a collection of more than 30 teams, including us, that submit their forecasts weekly to the CDC. It is not possible to declare whether one method is better than the other using those forecasts because each team's submission may correspond to different techniques over the period and involve human interventions as the teams are continuously changing/tuning their approach. Such forecasts may be considered "human-expert" forecasts and do not qualify as AI/ML approaches, although they can be used as an indicator of human expert performance. We are interested in supporting AI/ML research in epidemic forecasting which can lead to scalable forecasting without human intervention. Which modeling technique, learning strategy, and data pre-processing technique work well for epidemic forecasting is still an open problem. To help advance the state-of-the-art AI/ML applied to epidemiology, a benchmark with a collection of performance points is needed and the current "state-of-the-art" techniques need to be identified. We propose EpiBench a platform consisting of community-driven benchmarks for AI/ML applied to epidemic forecasting to standardize the challenge with a uniform evaluation protocol. In this paper, we introduce a prototype of EpiBench which is currently running and accepting submissions for the task of forecasting COVID-19 cases and deaths in the US states and We demonstrate that we can utilize the prototype to develop an ensemble relying on fully automated epidemic forecasts (no human intervention) that reaches human-expert level ensemble currently being used by the CDC.

A user-generated text on social media enables health workers to keep track of information, identify possible outbreaks, forecast disease trends, monitor emergency cases, and ascertain disease awareness and response to official health correspondence. This exchange of health information on social media has been regarded as an attempt to enhance public health surveillance (PHS). Despite its potential, the technology is still in its early stages and is not ready for widespread application. Advancements in pretrained language models (PLMs) have facilitated the development of several domain-specific PLMs and a variety of downstream applications. However, there are no PLMs for social media tasks involving PHS. We present and release PHS-BERT, a transformer-based PLM, to identify tasks related to public health surveillance on social media. We compared and benchmarked the performance of PHS-BERT on 25 datasets from different social medial platforms related to 7 different PHS tasks. Compared with existing PLMs that are mainly evaluated on limited tasks, PHS-BERT achieved state-of-the-art performance on all 25 tested datasets, showing that our PLM is robust and generalizable in the common PHS tasks. By making PHS-BERT available, we aim to facilitate the community to reduce the computational cost and introduce new baselines for future works across various PHS-related tasks.

Millions of users share their experiences on social media sites, such as Twitter, which in turn generate valuable data for public health monitoring, digital epidemiology, and other analyses of population health at global scale. The first, critical, task for these applications is classifying whether a personal health event was mentioned, which we call the (PHM) problem. This task is challenging for many reasons, including typically short length of social media posts, inventive spelling and lexicons, and figurative language, including hyperbole using diseases like "heart attack" or "cancer" for emphasis, and not as a health self-report. This problem is even more challenging for rarely reported, or frequent but ambiguously expressed conditions, such as "stroke". To address this problem, we propose a general, robust method for detecting PHMs in social media, which we call WESPAD, that combines lexical, syntactic, word embedding-based, and context-based features. WESPAD is able to generalize from few examples by automatically distorting the word embedding space to most effectively detect the true health mentions. Unlike previously proposed state-of-the-art supervised and deep-learning techniques, WESPAD requires relatively little training data, which makes it possible to adapt, with minimal effort, to each new disease and condition. We evaluate WESPAD on both an established publicly available Flu detection benchmark, and on a new dataset that we have constructed with mentions of multiple health conditions. Our experiments show that WESPAD outperforms the baselines and state-of-the-art methods, especially in cases when the number and proportion of true health mentions in the training data is small.

Background: Social media platforms have become a viable source of medical information, with patients and healthcare professionals using them to share health-related information and track diseases. Similarly, YouTube, the largest video-sharing platform in the world contains vlogs where individuals talk about their illnesses. The aim of our study was to investigate the use of Natural Language Processing (NLP) to identify the spoken content of YouTube vlogs related to the diagnosis of Coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) for public health screening. Methods: COVID-19 videos on YouTube were searched using relevant keywords. A total of 1000 videos being spoken in English were downloaded out of which 791 were classified as vlogs, 192 were non-vlogs, and 17 were deleted by the channel. The videos were converted into a textual format using Microsoft Streams. The textual data was preprocessed using basic and advanced preprocessing methods. A lexicon of 200 words was created which contained words related to COVID-19. The data was analyzed using topic modeling, word clouds, and lexicon matching. Results: The word cloud results revealed discussions about COVID-19 symptoms like "fever", along with generic terms such as "mask" and "isolation". Lexical analysis demonstrated that in 96.46% of videos, patients discussed generic terms, and in 95.45% of videos, people talked about COVID-19 symptoms. LDA Topic Modeling results also generated topics that successfully captured key themes and content related to our investigation of COVID-19 diagnoses in YouTube vlogs. Conclusion: By leveraging NLP techniques on YouTube vlogs public health practitioners can enhance their ability to mitigate the effects of pandemics and effectively respond to public health challenges.

Graphs have often been used to answer questions about the interaction between real-world entities by taking advantage of their capacity to represent complex topologies. Complex networks are known to be graphs that capture such non-trivial topologies; they are able to represent human phenomena such as epidemic processes, the dynamics of populations, and the urbanization of cities. The investigation of complex networks has been extrapolated to many fields of science, with particular emphasis on computing techniques, including artificial intelligence. In such a case, the analysis of the interaction between entities of interest is transposed to the internal learning of algorithms, a paradigm whose investigation is able to expand the state of the art in Computer Science. By exploring this paradigm, this thesis puts together complex networks and machine learning techniques to improve the understanding of the human phenomena observed in pandemics, pendular migration, and street networks. Accordingly, we contribute with: (i) a new neural network architecture capable of modeling dynamic processes observed in spatial and temporal data with applications in epidemics propagation, weather forecasting, and patient monitoring in intensive care units; (ii) a machine-learning methodology for analyzing and predicting links in the scope of human mobility between all the cities of Brazil; and, (iii) techniques for identifying inconsistencies in the urban planning of cities while tracking the most influential vertices, with applications over Brazilian and worldwide cities. We obtained results sustained by sound evidence of advances to the state of the art in artificial intelligence, rigorous formalisms, and ample experimentation. Our findings rely upon real-world applications in a range of domains, demonstrating the applicability of our methodologies.

The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has significantly altered our lifestyles as we resort to minimize the spread through preventive measures such as social distancing and quarantine. An increasingly worrying aspect is the gap between the exponential disease spread and the delay in adopting preventive measures. This gap is attributed to the lack of awareness about the disease and its preventive measures. Nowadays, social media platforms (ie., Twitter) are frequently used to create awareness about major events, including COVID-19. In this paper, we use Twitter to characterize public awareness regarding COVID-19 by analyzing the information flow in the most affected countries. Towards that, we collect more than 46K trends and 622 Million tweets from the top twenty most affected countries to examine 1) the temporal evolution of COVID-19 related trends, 2) the volume of tweets and recurring topics in those trends, and 3) the user sentiment towards preventive measures. Our results show that countries with a lower pandemic spread generated a higher volume of trends and tweets to expedite the information flow and contribute to public awareness. We also observed that in those countries, the COVID-19 related trends were generated before the sharp increase in the number of cases, indicating a preemptive attempt to notify users about the potential threat. Finally, we noticed that in countries with a lower spread, users had a positive sentiment towards COVID-19 preventive measures. Our measurements and analysis show that effective social media usage can influence public behavior, which can be leveraged to better combat future pandemics.

The past several years have witnessed a huge surge in the use of social media platforms during mass convergence events such as health emergencies, natural or human-induced disasters. These non-traditional data sources are becoming vital for disease forecasts and surveillance when preparing for epidemic and pandemic outbreaks. In this paper, we present GeoCoV19, a large-scale Twitter dataset containing more than 524 million multilingual tweets posted over a period of 90 days since February 1, 2020. Moreover, we employ a gazetteer-based approach to infer the geolocation of tweets. We postulate that this large-scale, multilingual, geolocated social media data can empower the research communities to evaluate how societies are collectively coping with this unprecedented global crisis as well as to develop computational methods to address challenges such as identifying fake news, understanding communities' knowledge gaps, building disease forecast and surveillance models, among others.

Databases of electronic health records (EHRs) are increasingly used to inform clinical decisions. Machine learning methods can find patterns in EHRs that are predictive of future adverse outcomes. However, statistical models may be built upon patterns of health-seeking behavior that vary across patient subpopulations, leading to poor predictive performance when training on one patient population and predicting on another. This note proposes two tests to better measure and understand model generalization. We use these tests to compare models derived from two data sources: (i) historical medical records, and (ii) electrocardiogram (EKG) waveforms. In a predictive task, we show that EKG-based models can be more stable than EHR-based models across different patient populations.

This paper introduces the Pandemic PACT Advanced Categorisation Engine (PPACE) along with its associated dataset. PPACE is a fine-tuned model developed to automatically classify research abstracts from funded biomedical projects according to WHO-aligned research priorities. This task is crucial for monitoring research trends and identifying gaps in global health preparedness and response. Our approach builds on human-annotated projects, which are allocated one or more categories from a predefined list. A large language model is then used to generate `rationales' explaining the reasoning behind these annotations. This augmented data, comprising expert annotations and rationales, is subsequently used to fine-tune a smaller, more efficient model. Developed as part of the Pandemic PACT project, which aims to track and analyse research funding and clinical evidence for a wide range of diseases with outbreak potential, PPACE supports informed decision-making by research funders, policymakers, and independent researchers. We introduce and release both the trained model and the instruction-based dataset used for its training. Our evaluation shows that PPACE significantly outperforms its baselines. The release of PPACE and its associated dataset offers valuable resources for researchers in multilabel biomedical document classification and supports advancements in aligning biomedical research with key global health priorities.

Many social and environmental phenomena are associated with macroscopic changes in the built environment, captured by satellite imagery on a global scale and with daily temporal resolution. While widely used for prediction, these images and especially image sequences remain underutilized for causal inference, especially in the context of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), where causal identification is established by design. In this paper, we develop and compare a set of general tools for analyzing Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs) from temporal satellite data that can be applied to any RCT where geographical identifiers are available. Through a simulation study, we analyze different modeling strategies for estimating CATE in sequences of satellite images. We find that image sequence representation models with more parameters generally yield a greater ability to detect heterogeneity. To explore the role of model and data choice in practice, we apply the approaches to two influential RCTs -- Banerjee et al. (2015), a poverty study in Cusco, Peru, and Bolsen et al. (2014), a water conservation experiment in Georgia, USA. We benchmark our image sequence models against image-only, tabular-only, and combined image-tabular data sources, summarizing practical implications for investigators in a multivariate analysis. Land cover classifications over satellite images facilitate interpretation of what image features drive heterogeneity. We also show robustness to data and model choice of satellite-based generalization of the RCT results to larger geographical areas outside the original. Overall, this paper shows how satellite sequence data can be incorporated into the analysis of RCTs, and provides evidence about the implications of data, model, and evaluation metric choice for causal analysis.

We present an overview of the TREC-COVID Challenge, an information retrieval (IR) shared task to evaluate search on scientific literature related to COVID-19. The goals of TREC-COVID include the construction of a pandemic search test collection and the evaluation of IR methods for COVID-19. The challenge was conducted over five rounds from April to July, 2020, with participation from 92 unique teams and 556 individual submissions. A total of 50 topics (sets of related queries) were used in the evaluation, starting at 30 topics for Round 1 and adding 5 new topics per round to target emerging topics at that state of the still-emerging pandemic. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the structure and results of TREC-COVID. Specifically, the paper provides details on the background, task structure, topic structure, corpus, participation, pooling, assessment, judgments, results, top-performing systems, lessons learned, and benchmark datasets.

Understanding the creation, evolution, and dissemination of scientific knowledge is crucial for bridging diverse subject areas and addressing complex global challenges such as pandemics, climate change, and ethical AI. Scientometrics, the quantitative and qualitative study of scientific literature, provides valuable insights into these processes. We introduce Scito2M, a longitudinal scientometric dataset with over two million academic publications, providing comprehensive contents information and citation graphs to support cross-disciplinary analyses. Using Scito2M, we conduct a temporal study spanning over 30 years to explore key questions in scientometrics: the evolution of academic terminology, citation patterns, and interdisciplinary knowledge exchange. Our findings reveal critical insights, such as disparities in epistemic cultures, knowledge production modes, and citation practices. For example, rapidly developing, application-driven fields like LLMs exhibit significantly shorter citation age (2.48 years) compared to traditional theoretical disciplines like oral history (9.71 years).

Case definitions are essential for effectively communicating public health threats. However, the absence of a standardized, machine-readable format poses significant challenges to interoperability, epidemiological research, the exchange of qualitative data, and the effective application of computational analysis methods, including artificial intelligence (AI). This complicates comparisons and collaborations across organizations and regions, limits data integration, and hinders technological innovation in public health. To address these issues, we propose the first open, machine-readable format for representing case and syndrome definitions. Additionally, we introduce the first comprehensive dataset of standardized case definitions and tools to convert existing human-readable definitions into machine-readable formats. We also provide an accessible online platform for browsing, analyzing, and contributing new definitions, available at https://opensyndrome.org. The Open Syndrome Definition format enables consistent, scalable use of case definitions across systems, unlocking AI's potential to strengthen public health preparedness and response. The source code for the format can be found at https://github.com/OpenSyndrome/schema under the MIT license.

Accurately forecasting patient arrivals at Urgent Care Clinics (UCCs) and Emergency Departments (EDs) is important for effective resourcing and patient care. However, correctly estimating patient flows is not straightforward since it depends on many drivers. The predictability of patient arrivals has recently been further complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic conditions and the resulting lockdowns. This study investigates how a suite of novel quasi-real-time variables like Google search terms, pedestrian traffic, the prevailing incidence levels of influenza, as well as the COVID-19 Alert Level indicators can both generally improve the forecasting models of patient flows and effectively adapt the models to the unfolding disruptions of pandemic conditions. This research also uniquely contributes to the body of work in this domain by employing tools from the eXplainable AI field to investigate more deeply the internal mechanics of the models than has previously been done. The Voting ensemble-based method combining machine learning and statistical techniques was the most reliable in our experiments. Our study showed that the prevailing COVID-19 Alert Level feature together with Google search terms and pedestrian traffic were effective at producing generalisable forecasts. The implications of this study are that proxy variables can effectively augment standard autoregressive features to ensure accurate forecasting of patient flows. The experiments showed that the proposed features are potentially effective model inputs for preserving forecast accuracies in the event of future pandemic outbreaks.

Large participatory biomedical studies, studies that recruit individuals to join a dataset, are gaining popularity and investment, especially for analysis by modern AI methods. Because they purposively recruit participants, these studies are uniquely able to address a lack of historical representation, an issue that has affected many biomedical datasets. In this work, we define representativeness as the similarity to a target population distribution of a set of attributes and our goal is to mirror the U.S. population across distributions of age, gender, race, and ethnicity. Many participatory studies recruit at several institutions, so we introduce a computational approach to adaptively allocate recruitment resources among sites to improve representativeness. In simulated recruitment of 10,000-participant cohorts from medical centers in the STAR Clinical Research Network, we show that our approach yields a more representative cohort than existing baselines. Thus, we highlight the value of computational modeling in guiding recruitment efforts.

With COVID-19 having emerged as the most widespread human pandemic disease in a century, the need to control its spread to avoid massive loss of life became more than necessary, and extremely fast. Several vaccines were developed and the task of policy makers was suddenly to convince the reluctant population to be vaccinated by various means. While some countries have chosen a policy of mandatory vaccination or punitive incentives, many states in the United States have adopted various incentives to try to increase vaccination coverage. A study we conducted in recent months quantified the effect of these measures on the proportion of the population vaccinated, using the synthetic control method, by simulating what would have happened without these measures. The aim now is to generalize this study to smaller scales, to improve the results of our previous study, to quantify their robustness and to provide a tool that can be used by policy makers to adapt their behavior in light of the results obtained.

Chikungunya (CHIK) is a viral disease transmitted to humans through the bites of {\it Aedes} mosquitoes infected with the chikungunya virus (CHIKV). CHIKV has been imported annually to Florida in the last decade due to Miami's crucial location as a hub for international travel, particularly from Central and South America including Brazil, where CHIK is endemic. This work addresses to the geographic spread of CHIK, incorporating factors such as human movement, temperature dependency, as well as vertical transmission, and incubation periods, for different patches. Central to the model is the integration of a multi-patch framework, and in the numerical analysis it is considered human movement between endemic Brazilian states and Florida. We establish crucial correlations between the mosquito reproduction number R_{m} and the disease reproduction number R_{0} with the disease dynamics in a multi-patch environment, encompassing not only a numerical analysis but also from a theoretical perspective. Through numerical simulations, validated with real population and temperature data, it is possible to understand the disease dynamics under many different scenarios and make future projections, offering insights for potential effective control strategies, as well as addressing the timing for these strategies to be adopted.

Advances in large language models (LLMs) provide new opportunities in healthcare for improved patient care, clinical decision-making, and enhancement of physician and administrator workflows. However, the potential of these models importantly depends on their ability to generalize effectively across clinical environments and populations, a challenge often underestimated in early development. To better understand reasons for these challenges and inform mitigation approaches, we evaluated ClinicLLM, an LLM trained on [HOSPITAL]'s clinical notes, analyzing its performance on 30-day all-cause readmission prediction focusing on variability across hospitals and patient characteristics. We found poorer generalization particularly in hospitals with fewer samples, among patients with government and unspecified insurance, the elderly, and those with high comorbidities. To understand reasons for lack of generalization, we investigated sample sizes for fine-tuning, note content (number of words per note), patient characteristics (comorbidity level, age, insurance type, borough), and health system aspects (hospital, all-cause 30-day readmission, and mortality rates). We used descriptive statistics and supervised classification to identify features. We found that, along with sample size, patient age, number of comorbidities, and the number of words in notes are all important factors related to generalization. Finally, we compared local fine-tuning (hospital specific), instance-based augmented fine-tuning and cluster-based fine-tuning for improving generalization. Among these, local fine-tuning proved most effective, increasing AUC by 0.25% to 11.74% (most helpful in settings with limited data). Overall, this study provides new insights for enhancing the deployment of large language models in the societally important domain of healthcare, and improving their performance for broader populations.

The demand for emergency department (ED) services is increasing across the globe, particularly during the current COVID-19 pandemic. Clinical triage and risk assessment have become increasingly challenging due to the shortage of medical resources and the strain on hospital infrastructure caused by the pandemic. As a result of the widespread use of electronic health records (EHRs), we now have access to a vast amount of clinical data, which allows us to develop predictive models and decision support systems to address these challenges. To date, however, there are no widely accepted benchmark ED triage prediction models based on large-scale public EHR data. An open-source benchmarking platform would streamline research workflows by eliminating cumbersome data preprocessing, and facilitate comparisons among different studies and methodologies. In this paper, based on the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV Emergency Department (MIMIC-IV-ED) database, we developed a publicly available benchmark suite for ED triage predictive models and created a benchmark dataset that contains over 400,000 ED visits from 2011 to 2019. We introduced three ED-based outcomes (hospitalization, critical outcomes, and 72-hour ED reattendance) and implemented a variety of popular methodologies, ranging from machine learning methods to clinical scoring systems. We evaluated and compared the performance of these methods against benchmark tasks. Our codes are open-source, allowing anyone with MIMIC-IV-ED data access to perform the same steps in data processing, benchmark model building, and experiments. This study provides future researchers with insights, suggestions, and protocols for managing raw data and developing risk triaging tools for emergency care.

We introduce a general, flexible, parametric survival modelling framework which encompasses key shapes of hazard function (constant, increasing, decreasing, up-then-down, down-then-up), various common survival distributions (log-logistic, Burr type XII, Weibull, Gompertz), and includes defective distributions (i.e., cure models). This generality is achieved using four basic distributional parameters: two scale-type parameters and two shape parameters. Generalising to covariate dependence, the scale-type regression components correspond to accelerated failure time (AFT) and proportional hazards (PH) models. Therefore, this general formulation unifies the most popular survival models which allows us to consider the practical value of possible modelling choices for survival data. Furthermore, in line with our proposed flexible baseline distribution, we advocate the use of multi-parameter regression in which more than one distributional parameter depends on covariates - rather than the usual convention of having a single covariate-dependent (scale) parameter. While many choices are available, we suggest introducing covariates through just one or other of the two scale parameters, which covers AFT and PH models, in combination with a `power' shape parameter, which allows for more complex non-AFT/non-PH effects, while the other shape parameter remains covariate-independent, and handles automatic selection of the baseline distribution. We explore inferential issues in simulations, both with and without a covariate, with particular focus on evidence concerning the need, or otherwise, to include both AFT and PH parameters. We illustrate the efficacy of our modelling framework by investigating differences between treatment groups using data from a lung cancer study and a melanoma study. Censoring is accommodated throughout.

Keeping track of scientific challenges, advances and emerging directions is a fundamental part of research. However, researchers face a flood of papers that hinders discovery of important knowledge. In biomedicine, this directly impacts human lives. To address this problem, we present a novel task of extraction and search of scientific challenges and directions, to facilitate rapid knowledge discovery. We construct and release an expert-annotated corpus of texts sampled from full-length papers, labeled with novel semantic categories that generalize across many types of challenges and directions. We focus on a large corpus of interdisciplinary work relating to the COVID-19 pandemic, ranging from biomedicine to areas such as AI and economics. We apply a model trained on our data to identify challenges and directions across the corpus and build a dedicated search engine. In experiments with 19 researchers and clinicians using our system, we outperform a popular scientific search engine in assisting knowledge discovery. Finally, we show that models trained on our resource generalize to the wider biomedical domain and to AI papers, highlighting its broad utility. We make our data, model and search engine publicly available. https://challenges.apps.allenai.org/

The global ramifications of the COVID-19 pandemic remain significant, exerting persistent pressure on nations even three years after its initial outbreak. Deep learning models have shown promise in improving COVID-19 diagnostics but require diverse and larger-scale datasets to improve performance. In this paper, we introduce COVIDx CXR-4, an expanded multi-institutional open-source benchmark dataset for chest X-ray image-based computer-aided COVID-19 diagnostics. COVIDx CXR-4 expands significantly on the previous COVIDx CXR-3 dataset by increasing the total patient cohort size by greater than 2.66 times, resulting in 84,818 images from 45,342 patients across multiple institutions. We provide extensive analysis on the diversity of the patient demographic, imaging metadata, and disease distributions to highlight potential dataset biases. To the best of the authors' knowledge, COVIDx CXR-4 is the largest and most diverse open-source COVID-19 CXR dataset and is made publicly available as part of an open initiative to advance research to aid clinicians against the COVID-19 disease.

Hypertension remains a global health concern with a rising prevalence, necessitating effective monitoring and understanding of blood pressure (BP) dynamics. This study delves into the wealth of information derived from BP measurement, a crucial approach in informing our understanding of hypertensive trends. Numerous studies have reported on the relationship between BP variation and various factors. In this research, we leveraged an extensive dataset comprising 75 million records spanning two decades, offering a unique opportunity to explore and analyze BP variations across demographic features such as age, race, and gender. Our findings revealed that gender-based BP variation was not statistically significant, challenging conventional assumptions. Interestingly, systolic blood pressure (SBP) consistently increased with age, while diastolic blood pressure (DBP) displayed a distinctive peak in the forties age group. Moreover, our analysis uncovered intriguing similarities in the distribution of BP among some of the racial groups. This comprehensive investigation contributes to the ongoing discourse on hypertension and underscores the importance of considering diverse demographic factors in understanding BP variations. Our results provide valuable insights that may inform personalized healthcare approaches tailored to specific demographic profiles.

Heterogeneity and comorbidity are two interwoven challenges associated with various healthcare problems that greatly hampered research on developing effective treatment and understanding of the underlying neurobiological mechanism. Very few studies have been conducted to investigate heterogeneous causal effects (HCEs) in graphical contexts due to the lack of statistical methods. To characterize this heterogeneity, we first conceptualize heterogeneous causal graphs (HCGs) by generalizing the causal graphical model with confounder-based interactions and multiple mediators. Such confounders with an interaction with the treatment are known as moderators. This allows us to flexibly produce HCGs given different moderators and explicitly characterize HCEs from the treatment or potential mediators on the outcome. We establish the theoretical forms of HCEs and derive their properties at the individual level in both linear and nonlinear models. An interactive structural learning is developed to estimate the complex HCGs and HCEs with confidence intervals provided. Our method is empirically justified by extensive simulations and its practical usefulness is illustrated by exploring causality among psychiatric disorders for trauma survivors.

With a 676% growth rate in HIV incidence between 2010 and 2021, the HIV/AIDS epidemic in the Philippines is the one that is spreading the quickest in the western Pacific. Although the full effects of COVID-19 on HIV services and development are still unknown, it is predicted that such disruptions could lead to a significant increase in HIV casualties. Therefore, the nation needs some modeling and forecasting techniques to foresee the spread pattern and enhance the governments prevention, treatment, testing, and care program. In this study, the researcher uses Multilayer Perceptron Neural Network to forecast time series during the period when the COVID-19 pandemic strikes the nation, using statistics taken from the HIV/AIDS and ART Registry of the Philippines. After training, validation, and testing of data, the study finds that the predicted cumulative cases in the nation by 2030 will reach 145,273. Additionally, there is very little difference between observed and anticipated HIV epidemic levels, as evidenced by reduced RMSE, MAE, and MAPE values as well as a greater coefficient of determination. Further research revealed that the Philippines seems far from achieving Sustainable Development Goal 3 of Project 2030 due to an increase in the nations rate of new HIV infections. Despite the detrimental effects of COVID-19 spread on HIV/AIDS efforts nationwide, the Philippine government, under the Marcos administration, must continue to adhere to the United Nations 90-90-90 targets by enhancing its ART program and ensuring that all vital health services are readily accessible and available.

Urgent care clinics and emergency departments around the world periodically suffer from extended wait times beyond patient expectations due to inadequate staffing levels. These delays have been linked with adverse clinical outcomes. Previous research into forecasting demand this domain has mostly used a collection of statistical techniques, with machine learning approaches only now beginning to emerge in recent literature. The forecasting problem for this domain is difficult and has also been complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic which has introduced an additional complexity to this estimation due to typical demand patterns being disrupted. This study explores the ability of machine learning methods to generate accurate patient presentations at two large urgent care clinics located in Auckland, New Zealand. A number of machine learning algorithms were explored in order to determine the most effective technique for this problem domain, with the task of making forecasts of daily patient demand three months in advance. The study also performed an in-depth analysis into the model behaviour in respect to the exploration of which features are most effective at predicting demand and which features are capable of adaptation to the volatility caused by the COVID-19 pandemic lockdowns. The results showed that ensemble-based methods delivered the most accurate and consistent solutions on average, generating improvements in the range of 23%-27% over the existing in-house methods for estimating the daily demand.

Background: Health datasets from clinical sources do not reflect the breadth and diversity of disease in the real world, impacting research, medical education, and artificial intelligence (AI) tool development. Dermatology is a suitable area to develop and test a new and scalable method to create representative health datasets. Methods: We used Google Search advertisements to invite contributions to an open access dataset of images of dermatology conditions, demographic and symptom information. With informed contributor consent, we describe and release this dataset containing 10,408 images from 5,033 contributions from internet users in the United States over 8 months starting March 2023. The dataset includes dermatologist condition labels as well as estimated Fitzpatrick Skin Type (eFST) and Monk Skin Tone (eMST) labels for the images. Results: We received a median of 22 submissions/day (IQR 14-30). Female (66.72%) and younger (52% < age 40) contributors had a higher representation in the dataset compared to the US population, and 32.6% of contributors reported a non-White racial or ethnic identity. Over 97.5% of contributions were genuine images of skin conditions. Dermatologist confidence in assigning a differential diagnosis increased with the number of available variables, and showed a weaker correlation with image sharpness (Spearman's P values <0.001 and 0.01 respectively). Most contributions were short-duration (54% with onset < 7 days ago ) and 89% were allergic, infectious, or inflammatory conditions. eFST and eMST distributions reflected the geographical origin of the dataset. The dataset is available at github.com/google-research-datasets/scin . Conclusion: Search ads are effective at crowdsourcing images of health conditions. The SCIN dataset bridges important gaps in the availability of representative images of common skin conditions.

Understanding how diverse individuals and communities respond to persuasive messaging holds significant potential for advancing personalized and socially aware machine learning. While Large Vision and Language Models (VLMs) offer promise, their ability to emulate nuanced, heterogeneous human responses, particularly in high stakes domains like public health, remains underexplored due in part to the lack of comprehensive, multimodal dataset. We introduce PHORECAST (Public Health Outreach REceptivity and CAmpaign Signal Tracking), a multimodal dataset curated to enable fine-grained prediction of both individuallevel behavioral responses and community-wide engagement patterns to health messaging. This dataset supports tasks in multimodal understanding, response prediction, personalization, and social forecasting, allowing rigorous evaluation of how well modern AI systems can emulate, interpret, and anticipate heterogeneous public sentiment and behavior. By providing a new dataset to enable AI advances for public health, PHORECAST aims to catalyze the development of models that are not only more socially aware but also aligned with the goals of adaptive and inclusive health communication

The exponential surge in online health information, coupled with its increasing use by non-experts, highlights the pressing need for advanced Health Information Retrieval models that consider not only topical relevance but also the factual accuracy of the retrieved information, given the potential risks associated with health misinformation. To this aim, this paper introduces a solution driven by Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG), which leverages the capabilities of generative Large Language Models (LLMs) to enhance the retrieval of health-related documents grounded in scientific evidence. In particular, we propose a three-stage model: in the first stage, the user's query is employed to retrieve topically relevant passages with associated references from a knowledge base constituted by scientific literature. In the second stage, these passages, alongside the initial query, are processed by LLMs to generate a contextually relevant rich text (GenText). In the last stage, the documents to be retrieved are evaluated and ranked both from the point of view of topical relevance and factual accuracy by means of their comparison with GenText, either through stance detection or semantic similarity. In addition to calculating factual accuracy, GenText can offer a layer of explainability for it, aiding users in understanding the reasoning behind the retrieval. Experimental evaluation of our model on benchmark datasets and against baseline models demonstrates its effectiveness in enhancing the retrieval of both topically relevant and factually accurate health information, thus presenting a significant step forward in the health misinformation mitigation problem.

Synthetic data generation has the potential to impact applications and domains with scarce data. However, before such data is used for sensitive tasks such as mental health, we need an understanding of how different demographics are represented in it. In our paper, we analyze the potential of producing synthetic data using GPT-3 by exploring the various stressors it attributes to different race and gender combinations, to provide insight for future researchers looking into using LLMs for data generation. Using GPT-3, we develop HEADROOM, a synthetic dataset of 3,120 posts about depression-triggering stressors, by controlling for race, gender, and time frame (before and after COVID-19). Using this dataset, we conduct semantic and lexical analyses to (1) identify the predominant stressors for each demographic group; and (2) compare our synthetic data to a human-generated dataset. We present the procedures to generate queries to develop depression data using GPT-3, and conduct analyzes to uncover the types of stressors it assigns to demographic groups, which could be used to test the limitations of LLMs for synthetic data generation for depression data. Our findings show that synthetic data mimics some of the human-generated data distribution for the predominant depression stressors across diverse demographics.

The highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5 clade 2.3.4.4b has triggered an unprecedented global panzootic. As the frequency and scale of HPAI H5 outbreaks continue to rise, understanding how wild birds contribute to shape the global virus spread across regions, affecting poultry, domestic and wild mammals, is increasingly critical. In this review, we examine ecological and evolutionary studies to map the global transmission routes of HPAI H5 viruses, identify key wild bird species involved in viral dissemination, and explore infection patterns, including mortality and survival. We also highlight major remaining knowledge gaps that hinder a full understanding of wild birds role in viral dynamics, which must be addressed to enhance surveillance strategies and refine risk assessment models aimed at preventing future outbreaks in wildlife, domestic animals and safeguard public health.

Spatial confounding poses a significant challenge in scientific studies involving spatial data, where unobserved spatial variables can influence both treatment and outcome, possibly leading to spurious associations. To address this problem, we introduce SpaCE: The Spatial Confounding Environment, the first toolkit to provide realistic benchmark datasets and tools for systematically evaluating causal inference methods designed to alleviate spatial confounding. Each dataset includes training data, true counterfactuals, a spatial graph with coordinates, and smoothness and confounding scores characterizing the effect of a missing spatial confounder. It also includes realistic semi-synthetic outcomes and counterfactuals, generated using state-of-the-art machine learning ensembles, following best practices for causal inference benchmarks. The datasets cover real treatment and covariates from diverse domains, including climate, health and social sciences. SpaCE facilitates an automated end-to-end pipeline, simplifying data loading, experimental setup, and evaluating machine learning and causal inference models. The SpaCE project provides several dozens of datasets of diverse sizes and spatial complexity. It is publicly available as a Python package, encouraging community feedback and contributions.

The COVID-19 pandemic has escalated mental health crises worldwide, with social isolation and economic instability contributing to a rise in suicidal behavior. Suicide can result from social factors such as shame, abuse, abandonment, and mental health conditions like depression, Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder (PTSD), Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD), anxiety disorders, and bipolar disorders. As these conditions develop, signs of suicidal ideation may manifest in social media interactions. Analyzing social media data using artificial intelligence (AI) techniques can help identify patterns of suicidal behavior, providing invaluable insights for suicide prevention agencies, professionals, and broader community awareness initiatives. Machine learning algorithms for this purpose require large volumes of accurately labeled data. Previous research has not fully explored the potential of incorporating explanations in analyzing and labeling longitudinal social media data. In this study, we employed a model explanation method, Layer Integrated Gradients, on top of a fine-tuned state-of-the-art language model, to assign each token from Reddit users' posts an attribution score for predicting suicidal ideation. By extracting and analyzing attributions of tokens from the data, we propose a methodology for preliminary screening of social media posts for suicidal ideation without using large language models during inference.

COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic caused by SARS-CoV-2 has led to a treacherous and devastating catastrophe for humanity. At the time of writing, no specific antivirus drugs or vaccines are recommended to control infection transmission and spread. The current diagnosis of COVID-19 is done by Reverse-Transcription Polymer Chain Reaction (RT-PCR) testing. However, this method is expensive, time-consuming, and not easily available in straitened regions. An interpretable and COVID-19 diagnosis AI framework is devised and developed based on the cough sounds features and symptoms metadata to overcome these limitations. The proposed framework's performance was evaluated using a medical dataset containing Symptoms and Demographic data of 30000 audio segments, 328 cough sounds from 150 patients with four cough classes ( COVID-19, Asthma, Bronchitis, and Healthy). Experiments' results show that the model captures the better and robust feature embedding to distinguish between COVID-19 patient coughs and several types of non-COVID-19 coughs with higher specificity and accuracy of 95.04 pm 0.18% and 96.83pm 0.18% respectively, all the while maintaining interpretability.

In recent years, the intersection of Natural Language Processing (NLP) and public health has opened innovative pathways for investigating various domains, including chronic pain in textual datasets. Despite the promise of NLP in chronic pain, the literature is dispersed across various disciplines, and there is a need to consolidate existing knowledge, identify knowledge gaps in the literature, and inform future research directions in this emerging field. This review aims to investigate the state of the research on NLP-based interventions designed for chronic pain research. A search strategy was formulated and executed across PubMed, Web of Science, IEEE Xplore, Scopus, and ACL Anthology to find studies published in English between 2014 and 2024. After screening 132 papers, 26 studies were included in the final review. Key findings from this review underscore the significant potential of NLP techniques to address pressing challenges in chronic pain research. The past 10 years in this field have showcased the utilization of advanced methods (transformers like RoBERTa and BERT) achieving high-performance metrics (e.g., F1>0.8) in classification tasks, while unsupervised approaches like Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) and k-means clustering have proven effective for exploratory analyses. Results also reveal persistent challenges such as limited dataset diversity, inadequate sample sizes, and insufficient representation of underrepresented populations. Future research studies should explore multimodal data validation systems, context-aware mechanistic modeling, and the development of standardized evaluation metrics to enhance reproducibility and equity in chronic pain research.

The rise of chronic diseases and pandemics like COVID-19 has emphasized the need for effective patient data processing while ensuring privacy through anonymization and de-identification of protected health information (PHI). Anonymized data facilitates research without compromising patient confidentiality. This paper introduces expert small AI models developed using the LLM-in-the-loop methodology to meet the demand for domain-specific de-identification NER models. These models overcome the privacy risks associated with large language models (LLMs) used via APIs by eliminating the need to transmit or store sensitive data. More importantly, they consistently outperform LLMs in de-identification tasks, offering superior performance and reliability. Our de-identification NER models, developed in eight languages (English, German, Italian, French, Romanian, Turkish, Spanish, and Arabic) achieved f1-micro score averages of 0.966, 0.975, 0.976, 0.970, 0.964, 0.974, 0.978, and 0.953 respectively. These results establish them as the most accurate healthcare anonymization solutions, surpassing existing small models and even general-purpose LLMs such as GPT-4o. While Part-1 of this series introduced the LLM-in-the-loop methodology for bio-medical document translation, this second paper showcases its success in developing cost-effective expert small NER models in de-identification tasks. Our findings lay the groundwork for future healthcare AI innovations, including biomedical entity and relation extraction, demonstrating the value of specialized models for domain-specific challenges.

Mental health is a significant and growing public health concern. As language usage can be leveraged to obtain crucial insights into mental health conditions, there is a need for large-scale, labeled, mental health-related datasets of users who have been diagnosed with one or more of such conditions. In this paper, we investigate the creation of high-precision patterns to identify self-reported diagnoses of nine different mental health conditions, and obtain high-quality labeled data without the need for manual labelling. We introduce the SMHD (Self-reported Mental Health Diagnoses) dataset and make it available. SMHD is a novel large dataset of social media posts from users with one or multiple mental health conditions along with matched control users. We examine distinctions in users' language, as measured by linguistic and psychological variables. We further explore text classification methods to identify individuals with mental conditions through their language.

Detecting dental diseases through panoramic X-rays images is a standard procedure for dentists. Normally, a dentist need to identify diseases and find the infected teeth. While numerous machine learning models adopting this two-step procedure have been developed, there has not been an end-to-end model that can identify teeth and their associated diseases at the same time. To fill the gap, we develop YOLOrtho, a unified framework for teeth enumeration and dental disease detection. We develop our model on Dentex Challenge 2023 data, which consists of three distinct types of annotated data. The first part is labeled with quadrant, and the second part is labeled with quadrant and enumeration and the third part is labeled with quadrant, enumeration and disease. To further improve detection, we make use of Tufts Dental public dataset. To fully utilize the data and learn both teeth detection and disease identification simultaneously, we formulate diseases as attributes attached to their corresponding teeth. Due to the nature of position relation in teeth enumeration, We replace convolution layer with CoordConv in our model to provide more position information for the model. We also adjust the model architecture and insert one more upsampling layer in FPN in favor of large object detection. Finally, we propose a post-process strategy for teeth layout that corrects teeth enumeration based on linear sum assignment. Results from experiments show that our model exceeds large Diffusion-based model.

To combat COVID-19, both clinicians and scientists need to digest vast amounts of relevant biomedical knowledge in scientific literature to understand the disease mechanism and related biological functions. We have developed a novel and comprehensive knowledge discovery framework, COVID-KG to extract fine-grained multimedia knowledge elements (entities and their visual chemical structures, relations, and events) from scientific literature. We then exploit the constructed multimedia knowledge graphs (KGs) for question answering and report generation, using drug repurposing as a case study. Our framework also provides detailed contextual sentences, subfigures, and knowledge subgraphs as evidence.

The 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19), emerged late December 2019 in China, is now rapidly spreading across the globe. At the time of writing this paper, the number of global confirmed cases has passed two millions and half with over 180,000 fatalities. Many countries have enforced strict social distancing policies to contain the spread of the virus. This have changed the daily life of tens of millions of people, and urged people to turn their discussions online, e.g., via online social media sites like Twitter. In this work, we describe the first Arabic tweets dataset on COVID-19 that we have been collecting since January 1st, 2020. The dataset would help researchers and policy makers in studying different societal issues related to the pandemic. Many other tasks related to behavioral change, information sharing, misinformation and rumors spreading can also be analyzed.

With worldwide concerns surrounding the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), there is a rapidly growing body of scientific literature on the virus. Clinicians, researchers, and policy-makers need to be able to search these articles effectively. In this work, we present a zero-shot ranking algorithm that adapts to COVID-related scientific literature. Our approach filters training data from another collection down to medical-related queries, uses a neural re-ranking model pre-trained on scientific text (SciBERT), and filters the target document collection. This approach ranks top among zero-shot methods on the TREC COVID Round 1 leaderboard, and exhibits a P@5 of 0.80 and an nDCG@10 of 0.68 when evaluated on both Round 1 and 2 judgments. Despite not relying on TREC-COVID data, our method outperforms models that do. As one of the first search methods to thoroughly evaluate COVID-19 search, we hope that this serves as a strong baseline and helps in the global crisis.

Observational studies require adjustment for confounding factors that are correlated with both the treatment and outcome. In the setting where the observed variables are tabular quantities such as average income in a neighborhood, tools have been developed for addressing such confounding. However, in many parts of the developing world, features about local communities may be scarce. In this context, satellite imagery can play an important role, serving as a proxy for the confounding variables otherwise unobserved. In this paper, we study confounder adjustment in this non-tabular setting, where patterns or objects found in satellite images contribute to the confounder bias. Using the evaluation of anti-poverty aid programs in Africa as our running example, we formalize the challenge of performing causal adjustment with such unstructured data -- what conditions are sufficient to identify causal effects, how to perform estimation, and how to quantify the ways in which certain aspects of the unstructured image object are most predictive of the treatment decision. Via simulation, we also explore the sensitivity of satellite image-based observational inference to image resolution and to misspecification of the image-associated confounder. Finally, we apply these tools in estimating the effect of anti-poverty interventions in African communities from satellite imagery.

Background: Electronic Health Records hold detailed longitudinal information about each patient's health status and general clinical history, a large portion of which is stored within the unstructured text. Existing approaches focus mostly on structured data and a subset of single-domain outcomes. We explore how temporal modelling of patients from free text and structured data, using deep generative transformers can be used to forecast a wide range of future disorders, substances, procedures or findings. Methods: We present Foresight, a novel transformer-based pipeline that uses named entity recognition and linking tools to convert document text into structured, coded concepts, followed by providing probabilistic forecasts for future medical events such as disorders, substances, procedures and findings. We processed the entire free-text portion from three different hospital datasets totalling 811336 patients covering both physical and mental health. Findings: On tests in two UK hospitals (King's College Hospital, South London and Maudsley) and the US MIMIC-III dataset precision@10 0.68, 0.76 and 0.88 was achieved for forecasting the next disorder in a patient timeline, while precision@10 of 0.80, 0.81 and 0.91 was achieved for forecasting the next biomedical concept. Foresight was also validated on 34 synthetic patient timelines by five clinicians and achieved relevancy of 97% for the top forecasted candidate disorder. As a generative model, it can forecast follow-on biomedical concepts for as many steps as required. Interpretation: Foresight is a general-purpose model for biomedical concept modelling that can be used for real-world risk forecasting, virtual trials and clinical research to study the progression of disorders, simulate interventions and counterfactuals, and educational purposes.

Designing effective strategies for controlling epidemic spread by vaccination is an important question in epidemiology, especially in the early stages when vaccines are limited. This is a challenging question when the contact network is very heterogeneous, and strategies based on controlling network properties, such as the degree and spectral radius, have been shown to be effective. Implementation of such strategies requires detailed information on the contact structure, which might be sensitive in many applications. Our focus here is on choosing effective vaccination strategies when the edges are sensitive and differential privacy guarantees are needed. Our main contributions are (varepsilon,delta)-differentially private algorithms for designing vaccination strategies by reducing the maximum degree and spectral radius. Our key technique is a private algorithm for the multi-set multi-cover problem, which we use for controlling network properties. We evaluate privacy-utility tradeoffs of our algorithms on multiple synthetic and real-world networks, and show their effectiveness.

We present CoNTACT: a Dutch language model adapted to the domain of COVID-19 tweets. The model was developed by continuing the pre-training phase of RobBERT (Delobelle, 2020) by using 2.8M Dutch COVID-19 related tweets posted in 2021. In order to test the performance of the model and compare it to RobBERT, the two models were tested on two tasks: (1) binary vaccine hesitancy detection and (2) detection of arguments for vaccine hesitancy. For both tasks, not only Twitter but also Facebook data was used to show cross-genre performance. In our experiments, CoNTACT showed statistically significant gains over RobBERT in all experiments for task 1. For task 2, we observed substantial improvements in virtually all classes in all experiments. An error analysis indicated that the domain adaptation yielded better representations of domain-specific terminology, causing CoNTACT to make more accurate classification decisions.

Extracting causal relationships from observed correlations is a growing area in probabilistic reasoning, originating with the seminal work of Pearl and others from the early 1990s. This paper develops a new, categorically oriented view based on a clear distinction between syntax (string diagrams) and semantics (stochastic matrices), connected via interpretations as structure-preserving functors. A key notion in the identification of causal effects is that of an intervention, whereby a variable is forcefully set to a particular value independent of any prior propensities. We represent the effect of such an intervention as an endofunctor which performs `string diagram surgery' within the syntactic category of string diagrams. This diagram surgery in turn yields a new, interventional distribution via the interpretation functor. While in general there is no way to compute interventional distributions purely from observed data, we show that this is possible in certain special cases using a calculational tool called comb disintegration. We demonstrate the use of this technique on a well-known toy example, where we predict the causal effect of smoking on cancer in the presence of a confounding common cause. After developing this specific example, we show this technique provides simple sufficient conditions for computing interventions which apply to a wide variety of situations considered in the causal inference literature.

The advancement in generative AI could be boosted with more accessible mathematics. Beyond human-AI chat, large language models (LLMs) are emerging in programming, algorithm discovery, and theorem proving, yet their genomics application is limited. This project introduces Math Agents and mathematical embedding as fresh entries to the "Moore's Law of Mathematics", using a GPT-based workflow to convert equations from literature into LaTeX and Python formats. While many digital equation representations exist, there's a lack of automated large-scale evaluation tools. LLMs are pivotal as linguistic user interfaces, providing natural language access for human-AI chat and formal languages for large-scale AI-assisted computational infrastructure. Given the infinite formal possibility spaces, Math Agents, which interact with math, could potentially shift us from "big data" to "big math". Math, unlike the more flexible natural language, has properties subject to proof, enabling its use beyond traditional applications like high-validation math-certified icons for AI alignment aims. This project aims to use Math Agents and mathematical embeddings to address the ageing issue in information systems biology by applying multiscalar physics mathematics to disease models and genomic data. Generative AI with episodic memory could help analyse causal relations in longitudinal health records, using SIR Precision Health models. Genomic data is suggested for addressing the unsolved Alzheimer's disease problem.

Vaccine hesitancy has been a common concern, probably since vaccines were created and, with the popularisation of social media, people started to express their concerns about vaccines online alongside those posting pro- and anti-vaccine content. Predictably, since the first mentions of a COVID-19 vaccine, social media users posted about their fears and concerns or about their support and belief into the effectiveness of these rapidly developing vaccines. Identifying and understanding the reasons behind public hesitancy towards COVID-19 vaccines is important for policy markers that need to develop actions to better inform the population with the aim of increasing vaccine take-up. In the case of COVID-19, where the fast development of the vaccines was mirrored closely by growth in anti-vaxx disinformation, automatic means of detecting citizen attitudes towards vaccination became necessary. This is an important computational social sciences task that requires data analysis in order to gain in-depth understanding of the phenomena at hand. Annotated data is also necessary for training data-driven models for more nuanced analysis of attitudes towards vaccination. To this end, we created a new collection of over 3,101 tweets annotated with users' attitudes towards COVID-19 vaccination (stance). Besides, we also develop a domain-specific language model (VaxxBERT) that achieves the best predictive performance (73.0 accuracy and 69.3 F1-score) as compared to a robust set of baselines. To the best of our knowledge, these are the first dataset and model that model vaccine hesitancy as a category distinct from pro- and anti-vaccine stance.

An increasing number of studies use gender information to understand phenomena such as gender bias, inequity in access and participation, or the impact of the Covid pandemic response. Unfortunately, most datasets do not include self-reported gender information, making it necessary for researchers to infer gender from other information, such as names or names and country information. An important limitation of these tools is that they fail to appropriately capture the fact that gender exists on a non-binary scale, however, it remains important to evaluate and compare how well these tools perform in a variety of contexts. In this paper, we compare the performance of a generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) tool ChatGPT with three commercially available list-based and machine learning-based gender inference tools (Namsor, Gender-API, and genderize.io) on a unique dataset. Specifically, we use a large Olympic athlete dataset and report how variations in the input (e.g., first name and first and last name, with and without country information) impact the accuracy of their predictions. We report results for the full set, as well as for the subsets: medal versus non-medal winners, athletes from the largest English-speaking countries, and athletes from East Asia. On these sets, we find that Namsor is the best traditional commercially available tool. However, ChatGPT performs at least as well as Namsor and often outperforms it, especially for the female sample when country and/or last name information is available. All tools perform better on medalists versus non-medalists and on names from English-speaking countries. Although not designed for this purpose, ChatGPT may be a cost-effective tool for gender prediction. In the future, it might even be possible for ChatGPT or other large scale language models to better identify self-reported gender rather than report gender on a binary scale.

Researchers are usually interested in examining the impact of covariates when separating heterogeneous samples into latent classes that are more homogeneous. The majority of theoretical and empirical studies with such aims have focused on identifying covariates as predictors of class membership in the structural equation modeling framework. In other words, the covariates only indirectly affect the sample heterogeneity. However, the covariates' influence on between-individual differences can also be direct. This article presents a mixture model that investigates covariates to explain within-cluster and between-cluster heterogeneity simultaneously, known as a mixture-of-experts (MoE) model. This study aims to extend the MoE framework to investigate heterogeneity in nonlinear trajectories: to identify latent classes, covariates as predictors to clusters, and covariates that explain within-cluster differences in change patterns over time. Our simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed model generally estimates the parameters unbiasedly, precisely and exhibits appropriate empirical coverage for a nominal 95% confidence interval. This study also proposes implementing structural equation model forests to shrink the covariate space of the proposed mixture model. We illustrate how to select covariates and construct the proposed model with longitudinal mathematics achievement data. Additionally, we demonstrate that the proposed mixture model can be further extended in the structural equation modeling framework by allowing the covariates that have direct effects to be time-varying.

Air pollution remains a leading global health risk, exacerbated by rapid industrialization and urbanization, contributing significantly to morbidity and mortality rates. In this paper, we introduce AirCast, a novel multi-variable air pollution forecasting model, by combining weather and air quality variables. AirCast employs a multi-task head architecture that simultaneously forecasts atmospheric conditions and pollutant concentrations, improving its understanding of how weather patterns affect air quality. Predicting extreme pollution events is challenging due to their rare occurrence in historic data, resulting in a heavy-tailed distribution of pollution levels. To address this, we propose a novel Frequency-weighted Mean Absolute Error (fMAE) loss, adapted from the class-balanced loss for regression tasks. Informed from domain knowledge, we investigate the selection of key variables known to influence pollution levels. Additionally, we align existing weather and chemical datasets across spatial and temporal dimensions. AirCast's integrated approach, combining multi-task learning, frequency weighted loss and domain informed variable selection, enables more accurate pollution forecasts. Our source code and models are made public here (https://github.com/vishalned/AirCast.git)

Medical research generates a large number of publications with the PubMed database already containing >35 million research articles. Integration of the knowledge scattered across this large body of literature could provide key insights into physiological mechanisms and disease processes leading to novel medical interventions. However, it is a great challenge for researchers to utilize this information in full since the scale and complexity of the data greatly surpasses human processing abilities. This becomes especially problematic in cases of extreme urgency like the COVID-19 pandemic. Automated text mining can help extract and connect information from the large body of medical research articles. The first step in text mining is typically the identification of specific classes of keywords (e.g., all protein or disease names), so called Named Entity Recognition (NER). Here we present an end-to-end pipeline for NER of typical entities found in medical research articles, including diseases, cells, chemicals, genes/proteins, and species. The pipeline can access and process large medical research article collections (PubMed, CORD-19) or raw text and incorporates a series of deep learning models fine-tuned on the HUNER corpora collection. In addition, the pipeline can perform dictionary-based NER related to COVID-19 and other medical topics. Users can also load their own NER models and dictionaries to include additional entities. The output consists of publication-ready ranked lists and graphs of detected entities and files containing the annotated texts. An associated script allows rapid inspection of the results for specific entities of interest. As model use cases, the pipeline was deployed on two collections of autophagy-related abstracts from PubMed and on the CORD19 dataset, a collection of 764 398 research article abstracts related to COVID-19.

The increasing prevalence of mental health disorders globally highlights the urgent need for effective digital screening methods that can be used in multilingual contexts. Most existing studies, however, focus on English data, overlooking critical mental health signals that may be present in non-English texts. To address this important gap, we present the first survey on the detection of mental health disorders using multilingual social media data. We investigate the cultural nuances that influence online language patterns and self-disclosure behaviors, and how these factors can impact the performance of NLP tools. Additionally, we provide a comprehensive list of multilingual data collections that can be used for developing NLP models for mental health screening. Our findings can inform the design of effective multilingual mental health screening tools that can meet the needs of diverse populations, ultimately improving mental health outcomes on a global scale.

Air pollution poses a significant threat to public health and well-being, particularly in urban areas. This study introduces a series of machine-learning models that integrate data from the Sentinel-5P satellite, meteorological conditions, and topological characteristics to forecast future levels of five major pollutants. The investigation delineates the process of data collection, detailing the combination of diverse data sources utilized in the study. Through experiments conducted in the Milan metropolitan area, the models demonstrate their efficacy in predicting pollutant levels for the forthcoming day, achieving a percentage error of around 30%. The proposed models are advantageous as they are independent of monitoring stations, facilitating their use in areas without existing infrastructure. Additionally, we have released the collected dataset to the public, aiming to stimulate further research in this field. This research contributes to advancing our understanding of urban air quality dynamics and emphasizes the importance of amalgamating satellite, meteorological, and topographical data to develop robust pollution forecasting models.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly essential in processing natural languages, yet their application is frequently compromised by biases and inaccuracies originating in their training data. In this study, we introduce Cross-Care, the first benchmark framework dedicated to assessing biases and real world knowledge in LLMs, specifically focusing on the representation of disease prevalence across diverse demographic groups. We systematically evaluate how demographic biases embedded in pre-training corpora like ThePile influence the outputs of LLMs. We expose and quantify discrepancies by juxtaposing these biases against actual disease prevalences in various U.S. demographic groups. Our results highlight substantial misalignment between LLM representation of disease prevalence and real disease prevalence rates across demographic subgroups, indicating a pronounced risk of bias propagation and a lack of real-world grounding for medical applications of LLMs. Furthermore, we observe that various alignment methods minimally resolve inconsistencies in the models' representation of disease prevalence across different languages. For further exploration and analysis, we make all data and a data visualization tool available at: www.crosscare.net.

Objective: To transform heterogeneous clinical data from electronic health records into clinically meaningful constructed features using data driven method that rely, in part, on temporal relations among data. Materials and Methods: The clinically meaningful representations of medical concepts and patients are the key for health analytic applications. Most of existing approaches directly construct features mapped to raw data (e.g., ICD or CPT codes), or utilize some ontology mapping such as SNOMED codes. However, none of the existing approaches leverage EHR data directly for learning such concept representation. We propose a new way to represent heterogeneous medical concepts (e.g., diagnoses, medications and procedures) based on co-occurrence patterns in longitudinal electronic health records. The intuition behind the method is to map medical concepts that are co-occuring closely in time to similar concept vectors so that their distance will be small. We also derive a simple method to construct patient vectors from the related medical concept vectors. Results: For qualitative evaluation, we study similar medical concepts across diagnosis, medication and procedure. In quantitative evaluation, our proposed representation significantly improves the predictive modeling performance for onset of heart failure (HF), where classification methods (e.g. logistic regression, neural network, support vector machine and K-nearest neighbors) achieve up to 23% improvement in area under the ROC curve (AUC) using this proposed representation. Conclusion: We proposed an effective method for patient and medical concept representation learning. The resulting representation can map relevant concepts together and also improves predictive modeling performance.

Despite being an integral tool for finding health-related information online, YouTube has faced criticism for disseminating COVID-19 misinformation globally to its users. Yet, prior audit studies have predominantly investigated YouTube within the Global North contexts, often overlooking the Global South. To address this gap, we conducted a comprehensive 10-day geolocation-based audit on YouTube to compare the prevalence of COVID-19 misinformation in search results between the United States (US) and South Africa (SA), the countries heavily affected by the pandemic in the Global North and the Global South, respectively. For each country, we selected 3 geolocations and placed sock-puppets, or bots emulating "real" users, that collected search results for 48 search queries sorted by 4 search filters for 10 days, yielding a dataset of 915K results. We found that 31.55% of the top-10 search results contained COVID-19 misinformation. Among the top-10 search results, bots in SA faced significantly more misinformative search results than their US counterparts. Overall, our study highlights the contrasting algorithmic behaviors of YouTube search between two countries, underscoring the need for the platform to regulate algorithmic behavior consistently across different regions of the Globe.

The COVID-19 pandemic has posed a heavy burden to the healthcare system worldwide and caused huge social disruption and economic loss. Many deep learning models have been proposed to conduct clinical predictive tasks such as mortality prediction for COVID-19 patients in intensive care units using Electronic Health Record (EHR) data. Despite their initial success in certain clinical applications, there is currently a lack of benchmarking results to achieve a fair comparison so that we can select the optimal model for clinical use. Furthermore, there is a discrepancy between the formulation of traditional prediction tasks and real-world clinical practice in intensive care. To fill these gaps, we propose two clinical prediction tasks, Outcome-specific length-of-stay prediction and Early mortality prediction for COVID-19 patients in intensive care units. The two tasks are adapted from the naive length-of-stay and mortality prediction tasks to accommodate the clinical practice for COVID-19 patients. We propose fair, detailed, open-source data-preprocessing pipelines and evaluate 17 state-of-the-art predictive models on two tasks, including 5 machine learning models, 6 basic deep learning models and 6 deep learning predictive models specifically designed for EHR data. We provide benchmarking results using data from two real-world COVID-19 EHR datasets. One dataset is publicly available without needing any inquiry and another dataset can be accessed on request. We provide fair, reproducible benchmarking results for two tasks. We deploy all experiment results and models on an online platform. We also allow clinicians and researchers to upload their data to the platform and get quick prediction results using our trained models. We hope our efforts can further facilitate deep learning and machine learning research for COVID-19 predictive modeling.

Foodborne gastrointestinal (GI) illness is a common cause of ill health in the UK. However, many cases do not interact with the healthcare system, posing significant challenges for traditional surveillance methods. The growth of publicly available online restaurant reviews and advancements in large language models (LLMs) present potential opportunities to extend disease surveillance by identifying public reports of GI illness. In this study, we introduce a novel annotation schema, developed with experts in GI illness, applied to the Yelp Open Dataset of reviews. Our annotations extend beyond binary disease detection, to include detailed extraction of information on symptoms and foods. We evaluate the performance of open-weight LLMs across these three tasks: GI illness detection, symptom extraction, and food extraction. We compare this performance to RoBERTa-based classification models fine-tuned specifically for these tasks. Our results show that using prompt-based approaches, LLMs achieve micro-F1 scores of over 90% for all three of our tasks. Using prompting alone, we achieve micro-F1 scores that exceed those of smaller fine-tuned models. We further demonstrate the robustness of LLMs in GI illness detection across three bias-focused experiments. Our results suggest that publicly available review text and LLMs offer substantial potential for public health surveillance of GI illness by enabling highly effective extraction of key information. While LLMs appear to exhibit minimal bias in processing, the inherent limitations of restaurant review data highlight the need for cautious interpretation of results.

Finding relevant literature underpins the practice of evidence-based medicine. From 2014 to 2016, TREC conducted a clinical decision support track, wherein participants were tasked with finding articles relevant to clinical questions posed by physicians. In total, 87 teams have participated over the past three years, generating 395 runs. During this period, each team has trialled a variety of methods. While there was significant overlap in the methods employed by different teams, the results were varied. Due to the diversity of the platforms used, the results arising from the different techniques are not directly comparable, reducing the ability to build on previous work. By using a stable platform, we have been able to compare different document and query processing techniques, allowing us to experiment with different search parameters. We have used our system to reproduce leading teams runs, and compare the results obtained. By benchmarking our indexing and search techniques, we can statistically test a variety of hypotheses, paving the way for further research.

The increasing threat of emerging infectious diseases and antimicrobial resistance requires more efficient, high-quality research. Perpetual Observational Studies (POS) nested within a clinical research network can improve planning, quality and efficiency of interventional and observational studies, although real-life benefits and challenges need to be assessed. Ecraid (European Clinical Research Alliance on Infectious Diseases) has initiated POS and will monitor the impact for five specific infectious syndromes.

Social and behavioral determinants of health (SDOH) play a significant role in shaping health outcomes, and extracting these determinants from clinical notes is a first step to help healthcare providers systematically identify opportunities to provide appropriate care and address disparities. Progress on using NLP methods for this task has been hindered by the lack of high-quality publicly available labeled data, largely due to the privacy and regulatory constraints on the use of real patients' information. This paper introduces a new dataset, SDOH-NLI, that is based on publicly available notes and which we release publicly. We formulate SDOH extraction as a natural language inference (NLI) task, and provide binary textual entailment labels obtained from human raters for a cross product of a set of social history snippets as premises and SDOH factors as hypotheses. Our dataset differs from standard NLI benchmarks in that our premises and hypotheses are obtained independently. We evaluate both "off-the-shelf" entailment models as well as models fine-tuned on our data, and highlight the ways in which our dataset appears more challenging than commonly used NLI datasets.

Quantifying the characteristics of public attention is an essential prerequisite for appropriate crisis management during severe events such as pandemics. For this purpose, we propose language-agnostic tweet representations to perform large-scale Twitter discourse classification with machine learning. Our analysis on more than 26 million COVID-19 tweets shows that large-scale surveillance of public discourse is feasible with computationally lightweight classifiers by out-of-the-box utilization of these representations.

Background: Cancer remains one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Comprehensive datasets that combine histopathological images with genetic and survival data across various tumour sites are essential for advancing computational pathology and personalised medicine. Results: We present SurGen, a dataset comprising 1,020 H&E-stained whole slide images (WSIs) from 843 colorectal cancer cases. The dataset includes detailed annotations for key genetic mutations (KRAS, NRAS, BRAF) and mismatch repair status, as well as survival data for 426 cases. To demonstrate SurGen's practical utility, we conducted a proof-of-concept machine learning experiment predicting mismatch repair status from the WSIs, achieving a test AUROC of 0.8316. These preliminary results underscore the dataset's potential to facilitate research in biomarker discovery, prognostic modelling, and advanced machine learning applications in colorectal cancer. Conclusions: SurGen offers a valuable resource for the scientific community, enabling studies that require high-quality WSIs linked with comprehensive clinical and genetic information on colorectal cancer. Our initial findings affirm the dataset's capacity to advance diagnostic precision and foster the development of personalised treatment strategies in colorectal oncology. Data available online at https://doi.org/10.6019/S-BIAD1285.

The long-term effects of Postacute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2, known as PASC, pose a significant challenge to healthcare systems worldwide. Accurate identification of progression events, such as hospitalization and reinfection, is essential for effective patient management and resource allocation. However, traditional models trained on structured data struggle to capture the nuanced progression of PASC. In this study, we introduce the first publicly available cohort of 18 PASC patients, with text time series features based on Large Language Model Llama-3.1-70B-Instruct and clinical risk annotated by clinical expert. We propose an Active Attention Network to predict the clinical risk and identify progression events related to the risk. By integrating human expertise with active learning, we aim to enhance clinical risk prediction accuracy and enable progression events identification with fewer number of annotation. The ultimate goal is to improves patient care and decision-making for SARS-CoV-2 patient.

The COVID-19 pandemic presents global challenges transcending boundaries of country, race, religion, and economy. The current gold standard method for COVID-19 detection is the reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) testing. However, this method is expensive, time-consuming, and violates social distancing. Also, as the pandemic is expected to stay for a while, there is a need for an alternate diagnosis tool which overcomes these limitations, and is deployable at a large scale. The prominent symptoms of COVID-19 include cough and breathing difficulties. We foresee that respiratory sounds, when analyzed using machine learning techniques, can provide useful insights, enabling the design of a diagnostic tool. Towards this, the paper presents an early effort in creating (and analyzing) a database, called Coswara, of respiratory sounds, namely, cough, breath, and voice. The sound samples are collected via worldwide crowdsourcing using a website application. The curated dataset is released as open access. As the pandemic is evolving, the data collection and analysis is a work in progress. We believe that insights from analysis of Coswara can be effective in enabling sound based technology solutions for point-of-care diagnosis of respiratory infection, and in the near future this can help to diagnose COVID-19.

Social isolation and loneliness, which have been increasing in recent years strongly contribute toward suicide rates. Although social isolation and loneliness are not currently recorded within the US National Violent Death Reporting System's (NVDRS) structured variables, natural language processing (NLP) techniques can be used to identify these constructs in law enforcement and coroner medical examiner narratives. Using topic modeling to generate lexicon development and supervised learning classifiers, we developed high-quality classifiers (average F1: .86, accuracy: .82). Evaluating over 300,000 suicides from 2002 to 2020, we identified 1,198 mentioning chronic social isolation. Decedents had higher odds of chronic social isolation classification if they were men (OR = 1.44; CI: 1.24, 1.69, p<.0001), gay (OR = 3.68; 1.97, 6.33, p<.0001), or were divorced (OR = 3.34; 2.68, 4.19, p<.0001). We found significant predictors for other social isolation topics of recent or impending divorce, child custody loss, eviction or recent move, and break-up. Our methods can improve surveillance and prevention of social isolation and loneliness in the United States.