Daily Papers

We present Flowception, a novel non-autoregressive and variable-length video generation framework. Flowception learns a probability path that interleaves discrete frame insertions with continuous frame denoising. Compared to autoregressive methods, Flowception alleviates error accumulation/drift as the frame insertion mechanism during sampling serves as an efficient compression mechanism to handle long-term context. Compared to full-sequence flows, our method reduces FLOPs for training three-fold, while also being more amenable to local attention variants, and allowing to learn the length of videos jointly with their content. Quantitative experimental results show improved FVD and VBench metrics over autoregressive and full-sequence baselines, which is further validated with qualitative results. Finally, by learning to insert and denoise frames in a sequence, Flowception seamlessly integrates different tasks such as image-to-video generation and video interpolation.

Current audio-driven facial animation methods achieve impressive results for short videos but suffer from error accumulation and identity drift when extended to longer durations. Existing methods attempt to mitigate this through external spatial control, increasing long-term consistency but compromising the naturalness of motion. We propose KeyFace, a novel two-stage diffusion-based framework, to address these issues. In the first stage, keyframes are generated at a low frame rate, conditioned on audio input and an identity frame, to capture essential facial expressions and movements over extended periods of time. In the second stage, an interpolation model fills in the gaps between keyframes, ensuring smooth transitions and temporal coherence. To further enhance realism, we incorporate continuous emotion representations and handle a wide range of non-speech vocalizations (NSVs), such as laughter and sighs. We also introduce two new evaluation metrics for assessing lip synchronization and NSV generation. Experimental results show that KeyFace outperforms state-of-the-art methods in generating natural, coherent facial animations over extended durations, successfully encompassing NSVs and continuous emotions.

Recent interactive video world model methods generate scene evolution conditioned on user instructions. Although they achieve impressive results, two key limitations remain. First, they fail to fully exploit the correspondence between instruction-driven scene motion and the underlying 3D geometry, which results in structural instability under viewpoint changes. Second, they easily forget historical information during multi-step interaction, resulting in error accumulation and progressive drift in scene semantics and structure. To address these issues, we propose MagicWorld, an interactive video world model that integrates 3D geometric priors and historical retrieval. MagicWorld starts from a single scene image, employs user actions to drive dynamic scene evolution, and autoregressively synthesizes continuous scenes. We introduce the Action-Guided 3D Geometry Module (AG3D), which constructs a point cloud from the first frame of each interaction and the corresponding action, providing explicit geometric constraints for viewpoint transitions and thereby improving structural consistency. We further propose History Cache Retrieval (HCR) mechanism, which retrieves relevant historical frames during generation and injects them as conditioning signals, helping the model utilize past scene information and mitigate error accumulation. Experimental results demonstrate that MagicWorld achieves notable improvements in scene stability and continuity across interaction iterations.

Audio-driven human animation has attracted wide attention thanks to its practical applications. However, critical challenges remain in generating high-resolution, long-duration videos with consistent appearance and natural hand motions. Existing methods extend videos using overlapping motion frames but suffer from error accumulation, leading to identity drift, color shifts, and scene instability. Additionally, hand movements are poorly modeled, resulting in noticeable distortions and misalignment with the audio. In this work, we propose InfinityHuman, a coarse-to-fine framework that first generates audio-synchronized representations, then progressively refines them into high-resolution, long-duration videos using a pose-guided refiner. Since pose sequences are decoupled from appearance and resist temporal degradation, our pose-guided refiner employs stable poses and the initial frame as a visual anchor to reduce drift and improve lip synchronization. Moreover, to enhance semantic accuracy and gesture realism, we introduce a hand-specific reward mechanism trained with high-quality hand motion data. Experiments on the EMTD and HDTF datasets show that InfinityHuman achieves state-of-the-art performance in video quality, identity preservation, hand accuracy, and lip-sync. Ablation studies further confirm the effectiveness of each module. Code will be made public.

Current autoregressive diffusion models excel at video generation but are generally limited to short temporal durations. Our theoretical analysis indicates that the autoregressive modeling typically suffers from temporal drift caused by error accumulation and hinders parallelization in long video synthesis. To address these limitations, we propose a novel planning-then-populating framework centered on Macro-from-Micro Planning (MMPL) for long video generation. MMPL sketches a global storyline for the entire video through two hierarchical stages: Micro Planning and Macro Planning. Specifically, Micro Planning predicts a sparse set of future keyframes within each short video segment, offering motion and appearance priors to guide high-quality video segment generation. Macro Planning extends the in-segment keyframes planning across the entire video through an autoregressive chain of micro plans, ensuring long-term consistency across video segments. Subsequently, MMPL-based Content Populating generates all intermediate frames in parallel across segments, enabling efficient parallelization of autoregressive generation. The parallelization is further optimized by Adaptive Workload Scheduling for balanced GPU execution and accelerated autoregressive video generation. Extensive experiments confirm that our method outperforms existing long video generation models in quality and stability. Generated videos and comparison results are in our project page.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) is the problem of updating a pre-trained source model at inference time given test input(s) from a different target domain. Most existing TTA approaches assume the setting in which the target domain is stationary, i.e., all the test inputs come from a single target domain. However, in many practical settings, the test input distribution might exhibit a lifelong/continual shift over time. Moreover, existing TTA approaches also lack the ability to provide reliable uncertainty estimates, which is crucial when distribution shifts occur between the source and target domain. To address these issues, we present PETAL (Probabilistic lifElong Test-time Adaptation with seLf-training prior), which solves lifelong TTA using a probabilistic approach, and naturally results in (1) a student-teacher framework, where the teacher model is an exponential moving average of the student model, and (2) regularizing the model updates at inference time using the source model as a regularizer. To prevent model drift in the lifelong/continual TTA setting, we also propose a data-driven parameter restoration technique which contributes to reducing the error accumulation and maintaining the knowledge of recent domains by restoring only the irrelevant parameters. In terms of predictive error rate as well as uncertainty based metrics such as Brier score and negative log-likelihood, our method achieves better results than the current state-of-the-art for online lifelong test-time adaptation across various benchmarks, such as CIFAR-10C, CIFAR-100C, ImageNetC, and ImageNet3DCC datasets. The source code for our approach is accessible at https://github.com/dhanajitb/petal.

We present a neural network structure, FramePack, to train next-frame (or next-frame-section) prediction models for video generation. The FramePack compresses input frames to make the transformer context length a fixed number regardless of the video length. As a result, we are able to process a large number of frames using video diffusion with computation bottleneck similar to image diffusion. This also makes the training video batch sizes significantly higher (batch sizes become comparable to image diffusion training). We also propose an anti-drifting sampling method that generates frames in inverted temporal order with early-established endpoints to avoid exposure bias (error accumulation over iterations). Finally, we show that existing video diffusion models can be finetuned with FramePack, and their visual quality may be improved because the next-frame prediction supports more balanced diffusion schedulers with less extreme flow shift timesteps.

Humanoid teleoperation plays a vital role in demonstrating and collecting data for complex humanoid-scene interactions. However, current teleoperation systems face critical limitations: they decouple upper- and lower-body control to maintain stability, restricting natural coordination, and operate open-loop without real-time position feedback, leading to accumulated drift. The fundamental challenge is achieving precise, coordinated whole-body teleoperation over extended durations while maintaining accurate global positioning. Here we show that an MoE-based teleoperation system, CLONE, with closed-loop error correction enables unprecedented whole-body teleoperation fidelity, maintaining minimal positional drift over long-range trajectories using only head and hand tracking from an MR headset. Unlike previous methods that either sacrifice coordination for stability or suffer from unbounded drift, CLONE learns diverse motion skills while preventing tracking error accumulation through real-time feedback, enabling complex coordinated movements such as ``picking up objects from the ground.'' These results establish a new milestone for whole-body humanoid teleoperation for long-horizon humanoid-scene interaction tasks.

Current diffusion models for audio-driven avatar video generation struggle to synthesize long videos with natural audio synchronization and identity consistency. This paper presents StableAvatar, the first end-to-end video diffusion transformer that synthesizes infinite-length high-quality videos without post-processing. Conditioned on a reference image and audio, StableAvatar integrates tailored training and inference modules to enable infinite-length video generation. We observe that the main reason preventing existing models from generating long videos lies in their audio modeling. They typically rely on third-party off-the-shelf extractors to obtain audio embeddings, which are then directly injected into the diffusion model via cross-attention. Since current diffusion backbones lack any audio-related priors, this approach causes severe latent distribution error accumulation across video clips, leading the latent distribution of subsequent segments to drift away from the optimal distribution gradually. To address this, StableAvatar introduces a novel Time-step-aware Audio Adapter that prevents error accumulation via time-step-aware modulation. During inference, we propose a novel Audio Native Guidance Mechanism to further enhance the audio synchronization by leveraging the diffusion's own evolving joint audio-latent prediction as a dynamic guidance signal. To enhance the smoothness of the infinite-length videos, we introduce a Dynamic Weighted Sliding-window Strategy that fuses latent over time. Experiments on benchmarks show the effectiveness of StableAvatar both qualitatively and quantitatively.

Speculative decoding accelerates Large Language Model (LLM) inference by using a small draft model to predict multiple tokens, and a large target model to verify these tokens in parallel. Recent studies leverage the hidden state of the target model to enhance draft model prediction accuracy. However, existing methods suffer from the degrading quality of draft token predictions at later positions, due to error accumulation in draft model generated features. In this paper, we propose Position Specialists (PosS), which consist of multiple position-specialized draft layers to generate tokens at assigned position(s). Position specialists greatly improve token acceptance rate at later positions per drafting round, as each specialist only needs to focus on handling a certain level of draft model feature deviation. Experiment results on Llama-3-8B-Instruct and Llama-2-13B-chat across six datasets demonstrate that PosS effectively improves over baselines on average acceptance length and speed-up ratio. Our codebase is available at https://github.com/shrango/PosS.

Speculative decoding is an effective and lossless method for Large Language Model (LLM) inference acceleration. It employs a smaller model to generate a draft token sequence, which is then verified by the original base model. In multi-GPU systems, inference latency can be further reduced through tensor parallelism (TP), while the optimal TP size of the draft model is typically smaller than that of the base model, leading to GPU idling during the drafting stage. To solve this problem, we propose EasySpec, a layer-parallel speculation strategy that optimizes the efficiency of multi-GPU utilization.EasySpec breaks the sequential execution order of layers in the drafting model, enabling multi-layer parallelization across devices, albeit with some induced approximation errors. After each drafting-and-verification iteration, the draft model's key-value (KV) cache is calibrated in a single forward pass, preventing long-term error accumulation at minimal additional latency. We evaluated EasySpec on several mainstream open-source LLMs, using smaller versions of models from the same series as drafters. The results demonstrate that EasySpec can achieve a peak speedup of 4.17x compared to vanilla decoding, while preserving the original distribution of the base LLMs. Specifically, the drafting stage can be accelerated by up to 1.62x with a maximum accuracy drop of only 7%, requiring no training or fine-tuning on the draft models.

Inertial odometry is an attractive solution to the problem of state estimation for agile quadrotor flight. It is inexpensive, lightweight, and it is not affected by perceptual degradation. However, only relying on the integration of the inertial measurements for state estimation is infeasible. The errors and time-varying biases present in such measurements cause the accumulation of large drift in the pose estimates. Recently, inertial odometry has made significant progress in estimating the motion of pedestrians. State-of-the-art algorithms rely on learning a motion prior that is typical of humans but cannot be transferred to drones. In this work, we propose a learning-based odometry algorithm that uses an inertial measurement unit (IMU) as the only sensor modality for autonomous drone racing tasks. The core idea of our system is to couple a model-based filter, driven by the inertial measurements, with a learning-based module that has access to the thrust measurements. We show that our inertial odometry algorithm is superior to the state-of-the-art filter-based and optimization-based visual-inertial odometry as well as the state-of-the-art learned-inertial odometry in estimating the pose of an autonomous racing drone. Additionally, we show that our system is comparable to a visual-inertial odometry solution that uses a camera and exploits the known gate location and appearance. We believe that the application in autonomous drone racing paves the way for novel research in inertial odometry for agile quadrotor flight.

Data drift is the change in model input data that is one of the key factors leading to machine learning models performance degradation over time. Monitoring drift helps detecting these issues and preventing their harmful consequences. Meaningful drift interpretation is a fundamental step towards effective re-training of the model. In this study we propose an end-to-end framework for reliable model-agnostic change-point detection and interpretation in large task-oriented dialog systems, proven effective in multiple customer deployments. We evaluate our approach and demonstrate its benefits with a novel variant of intent classification training dataset, simulating customer requests to a dialog system. We make the data publicly available.

Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models have shown an impressive generation quality, although their long sampling chain leads to high computational costs. In this paper, we observe that a long sampling chain also leads to an error accumulation phenomenon, which is similar to the exposure bias problem in autoregressive text generation. Specifically, we note that there is a discrepancy between training and testing, since the former is conditioned on the ground truth samples, while the latter is conditioned on the previously generated results. To alleviate this problem, we propose a very simple but effective training regularization, consisting in perturbing the ground truth samples to simulate the inference time prediction errors. We empirically show that, without affecting the recall and precision, the proposed input perturbation leads to a significant improvement in the sample quality while reducing both the training and the inference times. For instance, on CelebA 64times64, we achieve a new state-of-the-art FID score of 1.27, while saving 37.5% of the training time. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/forever208/DDPM-IP

Kalman filter (KF) based methods for multi-object tracking (MOT) make an assumption that objects move linearly. While this assumption is acceptable for very short periods of occlusion, linear estimates of motion for prolonged time can be highly inaccurate. Moreover, when there is no measurement available to update Kalman filter parameters, the standard convention is to trust the priori state estimations for posteriori update. This leads to the accumulation of errors during a period of occlusion. The error causes significant motion direction variance in practice. In this work, we show that a basic Kalman filter can still obtain state-of-the-art tracking performance if proper care is taken to fix the noise accumulated during occlusion. Instead of relying only on the linear state estimate (i.e., estimation-centric approach), we use object observations (i.e., the measurements by object detector) to compute a virtual trajectory over the occlusion period to fix the error accumulation of filter parameters during the occlusion period. This allows more time steps to correct errors accumulated during occlusion. We name our method Observation-Centric SORT (OC-SORT). It remains Simple, Online, and Real-Time but improves robustness during occlusion and non-linear motion. Given off-the-shelf detections as input, OC-SORT runs at 700+ FPS on a single CPU. It achieves state-of-the-art on multiple datasets, including MOT17, MOT20, KITTI, head tracking, and especially DanceTrack where the object motion is highly non-linear. The code and models are available at https://github.com/noahcao/OC_SORT.

The change in data distribution over time, also known as concept drift, poses a significant challenge to the reliability of online learning methods. Existing methods typically require model retraining or drift detection, both of which demand high computational costs and are often unsuitable for real-time applications. To address these limitations, a lightweight, fast and efficient random vector functional-link network termed Lite-RVFL is proposed, capable of adapting to concept drift without drift detection and retraining. Lite-RVFL introduces a novel objective function that assigns weights exponentially increasing to new samples, thereby emphasizing recent data and enabling timely adaptation. Theoretical analysis confirms the feasibility of this objective function for drift adaptation, and an efficient incremental update rule is derived. Experimental results on a real-world safety assessment task validate the efficiency, effectiveness in adapting to drift, and potential to capture temporal patterns of Lite-RVFL. The source code is available at https://github.com/songqiaohu/Lite-RVFL.

Sequential learning with Gaussian processes (GPs) is challenging when access to past data is limited, for example, in continual and active learning. In such cases, errors can accumulate over time due to inaccuracies in the posterior, hyperparameters, and inducing points, making accurate learning challenging. Here, we present a method to keep all such errors in check using the recently proposed dual sparse variational GP. Our method enables accurate inference for generic likelihoods and improves learning by actively building and updating a memory of past data. We demonstrate its effectiveness in several applications involving Bayesian optimization, active learning, and continual learning.

Recent studies show that Large Language Models (LLMs) with safety alignment can be jail-broken by fine-tuning on a dataset mixed with harmful data. First time in the literature, we show that the jail-broken effect can be mitigated by separating states in the finetuning stage to optimize the alignment and user datasets. Unfortunately, our subsequent study shows that this simple Bi-State Optimization (BSO) solution experiences convergence instability when steps invested in its alignment state is too small, leading to downgraded alignment performance. By statistical analysis, we show that the excess drift towards consensus could be a probable reason for the instability. To remedy this issue, we propose Lazy(i) safety alignment (Lisa), which introduces a proximal term to constraint the drift of each state. Theoretically, the benefit of the proximal term is supported by the convergence analysis, wherein we show that a sufficient large proximal factor is necessary to guarantee Lisa's convergence. Empirically, our results on four downstream finetuning tasks show that Lisa with a proximal term can significantly increase alignment performance while maintaining the LLM's accuracy on the user tasks. Code is available at https://github.com/git-disl/Lisa.

We propose Stable Video Infinity (SVI) that is able to generate infinite-length videos with high temporal consistency, plausible scene transitions, and controllable streaming storylines. While existing long-video methods attempt to mitigate accumulated errors via handcrafted anti-drifting (e.g., modified noise scheduler, frame anchoring), they remain limited to single-prompt extrapolation, producing homogeneous scenes with repetitive motions. We identify that the fundamental challenge extends beyond error accumulation to a critical discrepancy between the training assumption (seeing clean data) and the test-time autoregressive reality (conditioning on self-generated, error-prone outputs). To bridge this hypothesis gap, SVI incorporates Error-Recycling Fine-Tuning, a new type of efficient training that recycles the Diffusion Transformer (DiT)'s self-generated errors into supervisory prompts, thereby encouraging DiT to actively identify and correct its own errors. This is achieved by injecting, collecting, and banking errors through closed-loop recycling, autoregressively learning from error-injected feedback. Specifically, we (i) inject historical errors made by DiT to intervene on clean inputs, simulating error-accumulated trajectories in flow matching; (ii) efficiently approximate predictions with one-step bidirectional integration and calculate errors with residuals; (iii) dynamically bank errors into replay memory across discretized timesteps, which are resampled for new input. SVI is able to scale videos from seconds to infinite durations with no additional inference cost, while remaining compatible with diverse conditions (e.g., audio, skeleton, and text streams). We evaluate SVI on three benchmarks, including consistent, creative, and conditional settings, thoroughly verifying its versatility and state-of-the-art role.

Although diffusion models (DMs) have shown promising performances in a number of tasks (e.g., speech synthesis and image generation), they might suffer from error propagation because of their sequential structure. However, this is not certain because some sequential models, such as Conditional Random Field (CRF), are free from this problem. To address this issue, we develop a theoretical framework to mathematically formulate error propagation in the architecture of DMs, The framework contains three elements, including modular error, cumulative error, and propagation equation. The modular and cumulative errors are related by the equation, which interprets that DMs are indeed affected by error propagation. Our theoretical study also suggests that the cumulative error is closely related to the generation quality of DMs. Based on this finding, we apply the cumulative error as a regularization term to reduce error propagation. Because the term is computationally intractable, we derive its upper bound and design a bootstrap algorithm to efficiently estimate the bound for optimization. We have conducted extensive experiments on multiple image datasets, showing that our proposed regularization reduces error propagation, significantly improves vanilla DMs, and outperforms previous baselines.

Machine learning for time-series forecasting remains a key area of research. Despite successful application of many machine learning techniques, relating computational efficiency to forecast error remains an under-explored domain. This paper addresses this topic through a series of real-time experiments to quantify the relationship between computational cost and forecast error using meteorological nowcasting as an example use-case. We employ a variety of popular regression techniques (XGBoost, FC-MLP, Transformer, and LSTM) for multi-horizon, short-term forecasting of three variables (temperature, wind speed, and cloud cover) for multiple locations. During a 5-day live experiment, 4000 data sources were streamed for training and inferencing 144 models per hour. These models were parameterized to explore forecast error for two computational cost minimization methods: a novel auto-adaptive data reduction technique (Variance Horizon) and a performance-based concept drift-detection mechanism. Forecast error of all model variations were benchmarked in real-time against a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction model. Performance was assessed using classical and novel evaluation metrics. Results indicate that using the Variance Horizon reduced computational usage by more than 50\%, while increasing between 0-15\% in error. Meanwhile, performance-based retraining reduced computational usage by up to 90\% while also improving forecast error by up to 10\%. Finally, the combination of both the Variance Horizon and performance-based retraining outperformed other model configurations by up to 99.7\% when considering error normalized to computational usage.

This paper studies the error metric selection for long-term memory learning in sequence modelling. We examine the bias towards short-term memory in commonly used errors, including mean absolute/squared error. Our findings show that all temporally positive-weighted errors are biased towards short-term memory in learning linear functionals. To reduce this bias and improve long-term memory learning, we propose the use of a temporally rescaled error. In addition to reducing the bias towards short-term memory, this approach can also alleviate the vanishing gradient issue. We conduct numerical experiments on different long-memory tasks and sequence models to validate our claims. Numerical results confirm the importance of appropriate temporally rescaled error for effective long-term memory learning. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that quantitatively analyzes different errors' memory bias towards short-term memory in sequence modelling.

Large Language Models (LLMs) excel at single-turn tasks such as instruction following and summarization, yet real-world deployments require sustained multi-turn interactions where user goals and conversational context persist and evolve. A recurring challenge in this setting is context drift: the gradual divergence of a model's outputs from goal-consistent behavior across turns. Unlike single-turn errors, drift unfolds temporally and is poorly captured by static evaluation metrics. In this work, we present a study of context drift in multi-turn interactions and propose a simple dynamical framework to interpret its behavior. We formalize drift as the turn-wise KL divergence between the token-level predictive distributions of the test model and a goal-consistent reference model, and propose a recurrence model that interprets its evolution as a bounded stochastic process with restoring forces and controllable interventions. We instantiate this framework in both synthetic long-horizon rewriting tasks and realistic user-agent simulations such as in tau-Bench, measuring drift for several open-weight LLMs that are used as user simulators. Our experiments consistently reveal stable, noise-limited equilibria rather than runaway degradation, and demonstrate that simple reminder interventions reliably reduce divergence in line with theoretical predictions. Together, these results suggest that multi-turn drift can be understood as a controllable equilibrium phenomenon rather than as inevitable decay, providing a foundation for studying and mitigating context drift in extended interactions.

Text-guided diffusion models have significantly advanced image editing, enabling high-quality and diverse modifications driven by text prompts. However, effective editing requires inverting the source image into a latent space, a process often hindered by prediction errors inherent in DDIM inversion. These errors accumulate during the diffusion process, resulting in inferior content preservation and edit fidelity, especially with conditional inputs. We address these challenges by investigating the primary contributors to error accumulation in DDIM inversion and identify the singularity problem in traditional noise schedules as a key issue. To resolve this, we introduce the Logistic Schedule, a novel noise schedule designed to eliminate singularities, improve inversion stability, and provide a better noise space for image editing. This schedule reduces noise prediction errors, enabling more faithful editing that preserves the original content of the source image. Our approach requires no additional retraining and is compatible with various existing editing methods. Experiments across eight editing tasks demonstrate the Logistic Schedule's superior performance in content preservation and edit fidelity compared to traditional noise schedules, highlighting its adaptability and effectiveness.

Large language models (LLMs) possess impressive linguistic capabilities but often fail to faithfully retain factual knowledge, leading to hallucinations and unreliable outputs. Understanding LLMs' knowledge deficiencies by exhaustively evaluating against full-scale knowledge bases is computationally prohibitive, especially for closed-weight models. We propose stochastic error ascent (SEA), a scalable and efficient framework for discovering knowledge deficiencies (errors) in closed-weight LLMs under a strict query budget. Rather than naively probing all knowledge candidates, SEA formulates error discovery as a stochastic optimization process: it iteratively retrieves new high-error candidates by leveraging the semantic similarity to previously observed failures. To further enhance search efficiency and coverage, SEA employs hierarchical retrieval across document and paragraph levels, and constructs a relation directed acyclic graph to model error propagation and identify systematic failure modes. Empirically, SEA uncovers 40.7x more knowledge errors than Automated Capability Discovery and 26.7% more than AutoBencher, while reducing the cost-per-error by 599x and 9x, respectively. Human evaluation confirms the high quality of generated questions, while ablation and convergence analyses validate the contribution of each component in SEA. Further analysis on the discovered errors reveals correlated failure patterns across LLM families and recurring deficits, highlighting the need for better data coverage and targeted fine-tuning in future LLM development.

Adapting to concept drift is a challenging task in machine learning, which is usually tackled using incremental learning techniques that periodically re-fit a learning model leveraging newly available data. A primary limitation of these techniques is their reliance on substantial amounts of data for retraining. The necessity of acquiring fresh data introduces temporal delays prior to retraining, potentially rendering the models inaccurate if a sudden concept drift occurs in-between two consecutive retrainings. In communication networks, such issue emerges when performing traffic forecasting following a~failure event: post-failure re-routing may induce a drastic shift in distribution and pattern of traffic data, thus requiring a timely model adaptation. In this work, we address this challenge for the problem of traffic forecasting and propose an approach that exploits adaptive learning algorithms, namely, liquid neural networks, which are capable of self-adaptation to abrupt changes in data patterns without requiring any retraining. Through extensive simulations of failure scenarios, we compare the predictive performance of our proposed approach to that of a reference method based on incremental learning. Experimental results show that our proposed approach outperforms incremental learning-based methods in situations where the shifts in traffic patterns are drastic.

Neural operators have proven to be a promising approach for modeling spatiotemporal systems in the physical sciences. However, training these models for large systems can be quite challenging as they incur significant computational and memory expense -- these systems are often forced to rely on autoregressive time-stepping of the neural network to predict future temporal states. While this is effective in managing costs, it can lead to uncontrolled error growth over time and eventual instability. We analyze the sources of this autoregressive error growth using prototypical neural operator models for physical systems and explore ways to mitigate it. We introduce architectural and application-specific improvements that allow for careful control of instability-inducing operations within these models without inflating the compute/memory expense. We present results on several scientific systems that include Navier-Stokes fluid flow, rotating shallow water, and a high-resolution global weather forecasting system. We demonstrate that applying our design principles to neural operators leads to significantly lower errors for long-term forecasts as well as longer time horizons without qualitative signs of divergence compared to the original models for these systems. We open-source our https://github.com/mikemccabe210/stabilizing_neural_operators{code} for reproducibility.

Earth system models suffer from various structural and parametric errors in their representation of nonlinear, multi-scale processes, leading to uncertainties in their long-term projections. The effects of many of these errors (particularly those due to fast physics) can be quantified in short-term simulations, e.g., as differences between the predicted and observed states (analysis increments). With the increase in the availability of high-quality observations and simulations, learning nudging from these increments to correct model errors has become an active research area. However, most studies focus on using neural networks, which while powerful, are hard to interpret, are data-hungry, and poorly generalize out-of-distribution. Here, we show the capabilities of Model Error Discovery with Interpretability and Data Assimilation (MEDIDA), a general, data-efficient framework that uses sparsity-promoting equation-discovery techniques to learn model errors from analysis increments. Using two-layer quasi-geostrophic turbulence as the test case, MEDIDA is shown to successfully discover various linear and nonlinear structural/parametric errors when full observations are available. Discovery from spatially sparse observations is found to require highly accurate interpolation schemes. While NNs have shown success as interpolators in recent studies, here, they are found inadequate due to their inability to accurately represent small scales, a phenomenon known as spectral bias. We show that a general remedy, adding a random Fourier feature layer to the NN, resolves this issue enabling MEDIDA to successfully discover model errors from sparse observations. These promising results suggest that with further development, MEDIDA could be scaled up to models of the Earth system and real observations.

We introduce a few-shot learning framework for error detection. We show that data augmentation (a form of weak supervision) is key to training high-quality, ML-based error detection models that require minimal human involvement. Our framework consists of two parts: (1) an expressive model to learn rich representations that capture the inherent syntactic and semantic heterogeneity of errors; and (2) a data augmentation model that, given a small seed of clean records, uses dataset-specific transformations to automatically generate additional training data. Our key insight is to learn data augmentation policies from the noisy input dataset in a weakly supervised manner. We show that our framework detects errors with an average precision of ~94% and an average recall of ~93% across a diverse array of datasets that exhibit different types and amounts of errors. We compare our approach to a comprehensive collection of error detection methods, ranging from traditional rule-based methods to ensemble-based and active learning approaches. We show that data augmentation yields an average improvement of 20 F1 points while it requires access to 3x fewer labeled examples compared to other ML approaches.

Error Feedback (EF) is a highly popular and immensely effective mechanism for fixing convergence issues which arise in distributed training methods (such as distributed GD or SGD) when these are enhanced with greedy communication compression techniques such as TopK. While EF was proposed almost a decade ago (Seide et al., 2014), and despite concentrated effort by the community to advance the theoretical understanding of this mechanism, there is still a lot to explore. In this work we study a modern form of error feedback called EF21 (Richtarik et al., 2021) which offers the currently best-known theoretical guarantees, under the weakest assumptions, and also works well in practice. In particular, while the theoretical communication complexity of EF21 depends on the quadratic mean of certain smoothness parameters, we improve this dependence to their arithmetic mean, which is always smaller, and can be substantially smaller, especially in heterogeneous data regimes. We take the reader on a journey of our discovery process. Starting with the idea of applying EF21 to an equivalent reformulation of the underlying problem which (unfortunately) requires (often impractical) machine cloning, we continue to the discovery of a new weighted version of EF21 which can (fortunately) be executed without any cloning, and finally circle back to an improved analysis of the original EF21 method. While this development applies to the simplest form of EF21, our approach naturally extends to more elaborate variants involving stochastic gradients and partial participation. Further, our technique improves the best-known theory of EF21 in the rare features regime (Richtarik et al., 2023). Finally, we validate our theoretical findings with suitable experiments.

Time series forecasting always faces the challenge of concept drift, where data distributions evolve over time, leading to a decline in forecast model performance. Existing solutions are based on online learning, which continually organize recent time series observations as new training samples and update model parameters according to the forecasting feedback on recent data. However, they overlook a critical issue: obtaining ground-truth future values of each sample should be delayed until after the forecast horizon. This delay creates a temporal gap between the training samples and the test sample. Our empirical analysis reveals that the gap can introduce concept drift, causing forecast models to adapt to outdated concepts. In this paper, we present Proceed, a novel proactive model adaptation framework for online time series forecasting. Proceed first estimates the concept drift between the recently used training samples and the current test sample. It then employs an adaptation generator to efficiently translate the estimated drift into parameter adjustments, proactively adapting the model to the test sample. To enhance the generalization capability of the framework, Proceed is trained on synthetic diverse concept drifts. Extensive experiments on five real-world datasets across various forecast models demonstrate that Proceed brings more performance improvements than the state-of-the-art online learning methods, significantly facilitating forecast models' resilience against concept drifts. Code is available at https://github.com/SJTU-DMTai/OnlineTSF.

Generating 2-by-2 unitary matrices in floating-precision arithmetic is a delicate task. One way to reduce the accumulation error is to use less floating-point operations to compute each of the entries in the 2-by-2 unitary matrix. This paper shows an algorithm that reduces the number of operations to compute the entries of a Givens rotation. Overall, the new algorithm has more operations in total when compared to algorithms in different releases of LAPACK, but less operations per entry. Numerical tests show that the new algorithm is more accurate on average.

Modern distributed training relies heavily on communication compression to reduce the communication overhead. In this work, we study algorithms employing a popular class of contractive compressors in order to reduce communication overhead. However, the naive implementation often leads to unstable convergence or even exponential divergence due to the compression bias. Error Compensation (EC) is an extremely popular mechanism to mitigate the aforementioned issues during the training of models enhanced by contractive compression operators. Compared to the effectiveness of EC in the data homogeneous regime, the understanding of the practicality and theoretical foundations of EC in the data heterogeneous regime is limited. Existing convergence analyses typically rely on strong assumptions such as bounded gradients, bounded data heterogeneity, or large batch accesses, which are often infeasible in modern machine learning applications. We resolve the majority of current issues by proposing EControl, a novel mechanism that can regulate error compensation by controlling the strength of the feedback signal. We prove fast convergence for EControl in standard strongly convex, general convex, and nonconvex settings without any additional assumptions on the problem or data heterogeneity. We conduct extensive numerical evaluations to illustrate the efficacy of our method and support our theoretical findings.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have exhibited strong mathematical reasoning and computational prowess, tackling tasks ranging from basic arithmetic to advanced competition-level problems. However, frequently occurring subtle errors, such as miscalculations or incorrect substitutions, limit the models' full mathematical potential. Existing studies to improve mathematical ability typically involve distilling reasoning skills from stronger LLMs or applying preference learning to step-wise response pairs. Although these methods leverage samples of varying granularity to mitigate reasoning errors, they overlook the frequently occurring subtle errors. A major reason is that sampled preference pairs involve differences unrelated to the errors, which may distract the model from focusing on subtle errors. In this work, we propose a novel preference learning framework called eRror-Injected Self-Editing (RISE), which injects predefined subtle errors into partial tokens of correct solutions to construct hard pairs for error mitigation. In detail, RISE uses the model itself to edit a small number of tokens in the solution, injecting designed subtle errors. Then, pairs composed of self-edited solutions and their corresponding correct ones, along with pairs of correct and incorrect solutions obtained through sampling, are used together for subtle error-aware DPO training. Compared with other preference learning methods, RISE further refines the training objective to focus on predefined errors and their tokens, without requiring fine-grained sampling or preference annotation. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of RISE, with preference learning on Qwen2-7B-Instruct yielding notable improvements of 3.0% on GSM8K and 7.9% on MATH.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable reasoning capability in solving mathematical problems. However, existing approaches primarily focus on improving the quality of correct training data, e.g., distilling high-quality correct solutions from advanced models, neglecting the value contained in error data, potentially hindering the model's reflective ability. Though some studies attempt to leverage error data, they often involve complex mechanisms, such as Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) to explore error nodes. In this work, we propose to enhance LLMs' reasoning ability by Learning from Errors for Mathematical Advancement (LEMMA). LEMMA constructs data consisting of an incorrect solution with an erroneous step and a reflection connection to a correct solution for fine-tuning. Specifically, we systematically analyze the model-generated error types and introduce an error-type grounded mistake augmentation method to collect diverse and representative errors. Correct solutions are either from fixing the errors or generating a fresh start. Through a model-aware smooth reflection connection, the erroneous solution is transferred to the correct one. By fine-tuning on the constructed dataset, the model is able to self-correct errors autonomously within the generation process without relying on external critique models. Experimental results demonstrate that LEMMA achieves significant performance improvements over other strong baselines.

Low-rank adaptation (LoRA) has become a standard tool for efficiently fine-tuning large language models (LLMs). Yet, even minor LoRA updates can induce alignment drift, weakening safety and behavioral constraints through entangled parameter changes. To address this, we propose AlignGuard-LoRA (AGL), a principled framework for preserving alignment during finetuning. AGL introduces several key components: a primary task loss for supervision, Fisher Information Matrix-based regularization to restrict updates in alignment-sensitive subspaces, and task-specific regularization to stabilize the integration of new knowledge. We further introduce collision-aware regularization, blending Riemannian overlap -- which penalizes coordinate-wise interference -- and geodesic separation -- which encourages disjoint update geometry. We curate DriftCaps, a targeted diagnostic benchmark of safe and unsafe prompts designed to quantify alignment drift and safety degradation. Empirical evaluations show that AGL mitigates alignment drift by up to 50% on safety-critical benchmarks without degrading downstream task performance. Comprehensive ablation confirms that each component contributes distinctly to preserving latent safety behaviors. Finally, we derive and validate a scaling law for catastrophic forgetting, revealing that AGL flattens post-finetuning loss escalation while preserving adaptation dynamics. AGL is a structurally grounded refinement of LoRA, ensuring alignment preservation with minimal trade-offs. To encourage further exploration and development, we open-source our implementation.

Test-time domain adaptation aims to adapt a source pre-trained model to a target domain without using any source data. Existing works mainly consider the case where the target domain is static. However, real-world machine perception systems are running in non-stationary and continually changing environments where the target domain distribution can change over time. Existing methods, which are mostly based on self-training and entropy regularization, can suffer from these non-stationary environments. Due to the distribution shift over time in the target domain, pseudo-labels become unreliable. The noisy pseudo-labels can further lead to error accumulation and catastrophic forgetting. To tackle these issues, we propose a continual test-time adaptation approach~(CoTTA) which comprises two parts. Firstly, we propose to reduce the error accumulation by using weight-averaged and augmentation-averaged predictions which are often more accurate. On the other hand, to avoid catastrophic forgetting, we propose to stochastically restore a small part of the neurons to the source pre-trained weights during each iteration to help preserve source knowledge in the long-term. The proposed method enables the long-term adaptation for all parameters in the network. CoTTA is easy to implement and can be readily incorporated in off-the-shelf pre-trained models. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on four classification tasks and a segmentation task for continual test-time adaptation, on which we outperform existing methods. Our code is available at https://qin.ee/cotta.

The Inversion-Denoising Paradigm, which is based on diffusion models, excels in diverse image editing and restoration tasks. We revisit its mechanism and reveal a critical, overlooked factor in reconstruction degradation: the approximate noise error. This error stems from approximating the noise at step t with the prediction at step t-1, resulting in severe error accumulation throughout the inversion process. We introduce Projection-Orthogonal Least Squares for Robust and Adaptive Inversion (POLARIS), which reformulates inversion from an error-compensation problem into an error-origin problem. Rather than optimizing embeddings or latent codes to offset accumulated drift, POLARIS treats the guidance scale ω as a step-wise variable and derives a mathematically grounded formula to minimize inversion error at each step. Remarkably, POLARIS improves inversion latent quality with just one line of code. With negligible performance overhead, it substantially mitigates noise approximation errors and consistently improves the accuracy of downstream tasks.

We study nonparametric density estimation in non-stationary drift settings. Given a sequence of independent samples taken from a distribution that gradually changes in time, the goal is to compute the best estimate for the current distribution. We prove tight minimax risk bounds for both discrete and continuous smooth densities, where the minimum is over all possible estimates and the maximum is over all possible distributions that satisfy the drift constraints. Our technique handles a broad class of drift models, and generalizes previous results on agnostic learning under drift.

Large Language Models (LLMs) fine-tuned to align with human values often exhibit alignment drift, producing unsafe or policy-violating completions when exposed to adversarial prompts, decoding perturbations, or paraphrased jailbreaks. While prior work has behaviorally characterized alignment failure, little is known about the training-time belief sources underlying these failures. We introduce TraceAlign, a unified framework for tracing unsafe completions back to their root causes in the model's training corpus. Central to our approach is the Belief Conflict Index (BCI), which quantifies semantic inconsistency between generated spans and aligned policies, based on retrieved training documents using suffix-array matching. We propose three complementary interventions: (i) TraceShield, an inference-time safety filter that refuses completions with high-BCI spans, (ii) Contrastive Belief Deconfliction Loss, a contrastive fine-tuning objective penalizing high-BCI continuations during DPO, and (iii) Prov-Decode, a provenance-aware decoding strategy that vetoes beam expansions predicted to yield high-BCI spans. Together, these defenses reduce alignment drift by up to 85% on our curated Alignment Drift Benchmark (ADB) while preserving utility on standard tasks, with delta less than 0.2 and improved refusal quality. We further derive a theoretical upper bound on drift likelihood via suffix-array span statistics, linking memorization frequency and length to adversarial reactivation risk. TraceAlign thus provides the first scalable, traceable, and grounded toolkit for understanding and mitigating alignment failures at source. To encourage further exploration and development, we open-source our implementation at: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/tracealign-2DA7

Autoregressive Large Language Models (e.g., LLaMa, GPTs) are omnipresent achieving remarkable success in language understanding and generation. However, such impressive capability typically comes with a substantial model size, which presents significant challenges for autoregressive token-by-token generation. To mitigate computation overload incurred during generation, several early-exit and layer-dropping strategies have been proposed. Despite some promising success due to the redundancy across LLMs layers on metrics like Rough-L/BLUE, our careful knowledge-intensive evaluation unveils issues such as generation collapse, hallucination of wrong facts, and noticeable performance drop even at the trivial exit ratio of 10-15% of layers. We attribute these errors primarily to ineffective handling of the KV cache through state copying during early-exit. In this work, we observed the saturation of computationally expensive feed-forward blocks of LLM layers and proposed FFN-SkipLLM, which is a novel fine-grained skip strategy of autoregressive LLMs. More specifically, FFN-SkipLLM is an input-adaptive feed-forward skipping strategy that can skip 25-30% of FFN blocks of LLMs with marginal change in performance on knowledge-intensive generation tasks without any requirement to handle KV cache. Our extensive experiments and ablation across benchmarks like MT-Bench, Factoid-QA, and variable-length text summarization illustrate how our simple and ease-at-use method can facilitate faster autoregressive decoding.

Several recently proposed stochastic optimization methods that have been successfully used in training deep networks such as RMSProp, Adam, Adadelta, Nadam are based on using gradient updates scaled by square roots of exponential moving averages of squared past gradients. In many applications, e.g. learning with large output spaces, it has been empirically observed that these algorithms fail to converge to an optimal solution (or a critical point in nonconvex settings). We show that one cause for such failures is the exponential moving average used in the algorithms. We provide an explicit example of a simple convex optimization setting where Adam does not converge to the optimal solution, and describe the precise problems with the previous analysis of Adam algorithm. Our analysis suggests that the convergence issues can be fixed by endowing such algorithms with `long-term memory' of past gradients, and propose new variants of the Adam algorithm which not only fix the convergence issues but often also lead to improved empirical performance.

Exponential moving average (EMA) has recently gained significant popularity in training modern deep learning models, especially diffusion-based generative models. However, there have been few theoretical results explaining the effectiveness of EMA. In this paper, to better understand EMA, we establish the risk bound of online SGD with EMA for high-dimensional linear regression, one of the simplest overparameterized learning tasks that shares similarities with neural networks. Our results indicate that (i) the variance error of SGD with EMA is always smaller than that of SGD without averaging, and (ii) unlike SGD with iterate averaging from the beginning, the bias error of SGD with EMA decays exponentially in every eigen-subspace of the data covariance matrix. Additionally, we develop proof techniques applicable to the analysis of a broad class of averaging schemes.

Diffusion models suffer from substantial computational overhead due to their inherently iterative inference process. While feature caching offers a promising acceleration strategy by reusing intermediate outputs across timesteps, naive reuse often incurs noticeable quality degradation. In this work, we formally analyze the cumulative error introduced by caching and decompose it into two principal components: feature shift error, caused by inaccuracies in cached outputs, and step amplification error, which arises from error propagation under fixed timestep schedules. To address these issues, we propose ERTACache, a principled caching framework that jointly rectifies both error types. Our method employs an offline residual profiling stage to identify reusable steps, dynamically adjusts integration intervals via a trajectory-aware correction coefficient, and analytically approximates cache-induced errors through a closed-form residual linearization model. Together, these components enable accurate and efficient sampling under aggressive cache reuse. Extensive experiments across standard image and video generation benchmarks show that ERTACache achieves up to 2x inference speedup while consistently preserving or even improving visual quality. Notably, on the state-of-the-art Wan2.1 video diffusion model, ERTACache delivers 2x acceleration with minimal VBench degradation, effectively maintaining baseline fidelity while significantly improving efficiency. The code is available at https://github.com/bytedance/ERTACache.

The pursuit of computational efficiency has driven the adoption of low-precision formats for training transformer models. However, this progress is often hindered by notorious training instabilities. This paper provides the first mechanistic explanation for a long-standing and unresolved failure case where training with flash attention in low-precision settings leads to catastrophic loss explosions. Our in-depth analysis reveals that the failure is not a random artifact but caused by two intertwined phenomena: the emergence of similar low-rank representations within the attention mechanism and the compounding effect of biased rounding errors inherent in low-precision arithmetic. We demonstrate how these factors create a vicious cycle of error accumulation that corrupts weight updates, ultimately derailing the training dynamics. To validate our findings, we introduce a minimal modification to the flash attention that mitigates the bias in rounding errors. This simple change stabilizes the training process, confirming our analysis and offering a practical solution to this persistent problem.

Over the past few years, due to the rapid development of machine learning (ML) models for weather forecasting, state-of-the-art ML models have shown superior performance compared to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)'s high-resolution forecast (HRES) in 10-day forecasts at a spatial resolution of 0.25 degree. However, the challenge remains to perform comparably to the ECMWF ensemble mean (EM) in 15-day forecasts. Previous studies have demonstrated the importance of mitigating the accumulation of forecast errors for effective long-term forecasts. Despite numerous efforts to reduce accumulation errors, including autoregressive multi-time step loss, using a single model is found to be insufficient to achieve optimal performance in both short and long lead times. Therefore, we present FuXi, a cascaded ML weather forecasting system that provides 15-day global forecasts with a temporal resolution of 6 hours and a spatial resolution of 0.25 degree. FuXi is developed using 39 years of the ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis dataset. The performance evaluation, based on latitude-weighted root mean square error (RMSE) and anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), demonstrates that FuXi has comparable forecast performance to ECMWF EM in 15-day forecasts, making FuXi the first ML-based weather forecasting system to accomplish this achievement.

We expect the generalization error to improve with more samples from a similar task, and to deteriorate with more samples from an out-of-distribution (OOD) task. In this work, we show a counter-intuitive phenomenon: the generalization error of a task can be a non-monotonic function of the number of OOD samples. As the number of OOD samples increases, the generalization error on the target task improves before deteriorating beyond a threshold. In other words, there is value in training on small amounts of OOD data. We use Fisher's Linear Discriminant on synthetic datasets and deep networks on computer vision benchmarks such as MNIST, CIFAR-10, CINIC-10, PACS and DomainNet to demonstrate and analyze this phenomenon. In the idealistic setting where we know which samples are OOD, we show that these non-monotonic trends can be exploited using an appropriately weighted objective of the target and OOD empirical risk. While its practical utility is limited, this does suggest that if we can detect OOD samples, then there may be ways to benefit from them. When we do not know which samples are OOD, we show how a number of go-to strategies such as data-augmentation, hyper-parameter optimization, and pre-training are not enough to ensure that the target generalization error does not deteriorate with the number of OOD samples in the dataset.

Autoregressive models are typically applied to sequences of discrete tokens, but recent research indicates that generating sequences of continuous embeddings in an autoregressive manner is also feasible. However, such Continuous Autoregressive Models (CAMs) can suffer from a decline in generation quality over extended sequences due to error accumulation during inference. We introduce a novel method to address this issue by injecting random noise into the input embeddings during training. This procedure makes the model robust against varying error levels at inference. We further reduce error accumulation through an inference procedure that introduces low-level noise. Experiments on musical audio generation show that CAM substantially outperforms existing autoregressive and non-autoregressive approaches while preserving audio quality over extended sequences. This work paves the way for generating continuous embeddings in a purely autoregressive setting, opening new possibilities for real-time and interactive generative applications.

Autoregressive language models accumulate errors due to their fixed, irrevocable left-to-right token generation. To address this, we propose a new sampling method called Resample-Previous-Tokens (RPT). RPT mitigates error accumulation by iteratively revisiting and potentially replacing tokens in a window of previously generated text. This method can be integrated into existing autoregressive models, preserving their next-token-prediction quality and speed. Fine-tuning a pretrained 8B parameter model with RPT for only 100B resulted in ~10% relative improvements on reasoning and coding benchmarks compared to the standard sampling.

Training large-scale machine learning models poses distinct system challenges, given both the size and complexity of today's workloads. Recently, many organizations training state-of-the-art Generative AI models have reported cases of instability during training, often taking the form of loss spikes. Numeric deviation has emerged as a potential cause of this training instability, although quantifying this is especially challenging given the costly nature of training runs. In this work, we develop a principled approach to understanding the effects of numeric deviation, and construct proxies to put observations into context when downstream effects are difficult to quantify. As a case study, we apply this framework to analyze the widely-adopted Flash Attention optimization. We find that Flash Attention sees roughly an order of magnitude more numeric deviation as compared to Baseline Attention at BF16 when measured during an isolated forward pass. We then use a data-driven analysis based on the Wasserstein Distance to provide upper bounds on how this numeric deviation impacts model weights during training, finding that the numerical deviation present in Flash Attention is 2-5 times less significant than low-precision training.

The majority of the research on the quantization of Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) is focused on reducing the precision of tensors visible by high-level frameworks (e.g., weights, activations, and gradients). However, current hardware still relies on high-accuracy core operations. Most significant is the operation of accumulating products. This high-precision accumulation operation is gradually becoming the main computational bottleneck. This is because, so far, the usage of low-precision accumulators led to a significant degradation in performance. In this work, we present a simple method to train and fine-tune high-end DNNs, to allow, for the first time, utilization of cheaper, 12-bits accumulators, with no significant degradation in accuracy. Lastly, we show that as we decrease the accumulation precision further, using fine-grained gradient approximations can improve the DNN accuracy.

In this paper, we study the role of initialization in Low Rank Adaptation (LoRA) as originally introduced in Hu et al. (2021). Essentially, to start from the pretrained model as initialization for finetuning, one can either initialize B to zero and A to random (default initialization in PEFT package), or vice-versa. In both cases, the product BA is equal to zero at initialization, which makes finetuning starts from the pretrained model. These two initialization schemes are seemingly similar. They should in-principle yield the same performance and share the same optimal learning rate. We demonstrate that this is an incorrect intuition and that the first scheme (initializing B to zero and A to random) on average yields better performance compared to the other scheme. Our theoretical analysis shows that the reason behind this might be that the first initialization allows the use of larger learning rates (without causing output instability) compared to the second initialization, resulting in more efficient learning of the first scheme. We validate our results with extensive experiments on LLMs.

Machine learning models often experience performance degradation post-deployment due to shifts in data distribution. It is challenging to assess model's performance accurately when labels are missing or delayed. Existing proxy methods, such as drift detection, fail to measure the effects of these shifts adequately. To address this, we introduce a new method, Probabilistic Adaptive Performance Estimation (PAPE), for evaluating classification models on unlabeled data that accurately quantifies the impact of covariate shift on model performance. It is model and data-type agnostic and works for various performance metrics. Crucially, PAPE operates independently of the original model, relying only on its predictions and probability estimates, and does not need any assumptions about the nature of the covariate shift, learning directly from data instead. We tested PAPE on tabular data using over 900 dataset-model combinations created from US census data, assessing its performance against multiple benchmarks. Overall, PAPE provided more accurate performance estimates than other evaluated methodologies.

Early time classification algorithms aim to label a stream of features without processing the full input stream, while maintaining accuracy comparable to that achieved by applying the classifier to the entire input. In this paper, we introduce a statistical framework that can be applied to any sequential classifier, formulating a calibrated stopping rule. This data-driven rule attains finite-sample, distribution-free control of the accuracy gap between full and early-time classification. We start by presenting a novel method that builds on the Learn-then-Test calibration framework to control this gap marginally, on average over i.i.d. instances. As this algorithm tends to yield an excessively high accuracy gap for early halt times, our main contribution is the proposal of a framework that controls a stronger notion of error, where the accuracy gap is controlled conditionally on the accumulated halt times. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness, applicability, and usefulness of our method. We show that our proposed early stopping mechanism reduces up to 94% of timesteps used for classification while achieving rigorous accuracy gap control.

Learning from non-stationary data streams subject to concept drift requires models that can adapt on-the-fly while remaining resource-efficient. Existing adaptive ensemble methods often rely on coarse-grained adaptation mechanisms or simple voting schemes that fail to optimally leverage specialized knowledge. This paper introduces DriftMoE, an online Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architecture that addresses these limitations through a novel co-training framework. DriftMoE features a compact neural router that is co-trained alongside a pool of incremental Hoeffding tree experts. The key innovation lies in a symbiotic learning loop that enables expert specialization: the router selects the most suitable expert for prediction, the relevant experts update incrementally with the true label, and the router refines its parameters using a multi-hot correctness mask that reinforces every accurate expert. This feedback loop provides the router with a clear training signal while accelerating expert specialization. We evaluate DriftMoE's performance across nine state-of-the-art data stream learning benchmarks spanning abrupt, gradual, and real-world drifts testing two distinct configurations: one where experts specialize on data regimes (multi-class variant), and another where they focus on single-class specialization (task-based variant). Our results demonstrate that DriftMoE achieves competitive results with state-of-the-art stream learning adaptive ensembles, offering a principled and efficient approach to concept drift adaptation. All code, data pipelines, and reproducibility scripts are available in our public GitHub repository: https://github.com/miguel-ceadar/drift-moe.

The proliferation of generative models, combined with pretraining on web-scale data, raises a timely question: what happens when these models are trained on their own generated outputs? Recent investigations into model-data feedback loops proposed that such loops would lead to a phenomenon termed model collapse, under which performance progressively degrades with each model-data feedback iteration until fitted models become useless. However, those studies largely assumed that new data replace old data over time, where an arguably more realistic assumption is that data accumulate over time. In this paper, we ask: what effect does accumulating data have on model collapse? We empirically study this question by pretraining sequences of language models on text corpora. We confirm that replacing the original real data by each generation's synthetic data does indeed tend towards model collapse, then demonstrate that accumulating the successive generations of synthetic data alongside the original real data avoids model collapse; these results hold across a range of model sizes, architectures, and hyperparameters. We obtain similar results for deep generative models on other types of real data: diffusion models for molecule conformation generation and variational autoencoders for image generation. To understand why accumulating data can avoid model collapse, we use an analytically tractable framework introduced by prior work in which a sequence of linear models are fit to the previous models' outputs. Previous work used this framework to show that if data are replaced, the test error increases with the number of model-fitting iterations; we extend this argument to prove that if data instead accumulate, the test error has a finite upper bound independent of the number of iterations, meaning model collapse no longer occurs.

Model-based deep learning has achieved astounding successes due in part to the availability of large-scale real-world data. However, processing such massive amounts of data comes at a considerable cost in terms of computations, storage, training and the search for good neural architectures. Dataset distillation has thus recently come to the fore. This paradigm involves distilling information from large real-world datasets into tiny and compact synthetic datasets such that processing the latter ideally yields similar performances as the former. State-of-the-art methods primarily rely on learning the synthetic dataset by matching the gradients obtained during training between the real and synthetic data. However, these gradient-matching methods suffer from the so-called accumulated trajectory error caused by the discrepancy between the distillation and subsequent evaluation. To mitigate the adverse impact of this accumulated trajectory error, we propose a novel approach that encourages the optimization algorithm to seek a flat trajectory. We show that the weights trained on synthetic data are robust against the accumulated errors perturbations with the regularization towards the flat trajectory. Our method, called Flat Trajectory Distillation (FTD), is shown to boost the performance of gradient-matching methods by up to 4.7% on a subset of images of the ImageNet dataset with higher resolution images. We also validate the effectiveness and generalizability of our method with datasets of different resolutions and demonstrate its applicability to neural architecture search. Code is available at https://github.com/AngusDujw/FTD-distillation.

The success of the machine learning field has reliably depended on training on large datasets. While effective, this trend comes at an extraordinary cost. This is due to two deeply intertwined factors: the size of models and the size of datasets. While promising research efforts focus on reducing the size of models, the other half of the equation remains fairly mysterious. Indeed, it is surprising that the standard approach to training remains to iterate over and over, uniformly sampling the training dataset. In this paper we explore a series of alternative training paradigms that leverage insights from hard-data-mining and dropout, simple enough to implement and use that can become the new training standard. The proposed Progressive Data Dropout reduces the number of effective epochs to as little as 12.4% of the baseline. This savings actually do not come at any cost for accuracy. Surprisingly, the proposed method improves accuracy by up to 4.82%. Our approach requires no changes to model architecture or optimizer, and can be applied across standard training pipelines, thus posing an excellent opportunity for wide adoption. Code can be found here: https://github.com/bazyagami/LearningWithRevision

Training a large and state-of-the-art machine learning model typically necessitates the use of large-scale datasets, which, in turn, makes the training and parameter-tuning process expensive and time-consuming. Some researchers opt to distil information from real-world datasets into tiny and compact synthetic datasets while maintaining their ability to train a well-performing model, hence proposing a data-efficient method known as Dataset Distillation (DD). Despite recent progress in this field, existing methods still underperform and cannot effectively replace large datasets. In this paper, unlike previous methods that focus solely on improving the efficacy of student distillation, we are the first to recognize the important interplay between expert and student. We argue the significant impact of expert smoothness when employing more potent expert trajectories in subsequent dataset distillation. Based on this, we introduce the integration of clipping loss and gradient penalty to regulate the rate of parameter changes in expert trajectories. Furthermore, in response to the sensitivity exhibited towards randomly initialized variables during distillation, we propose representative initialization for synthetic dataset and balanced inner-loop loss. Finally, we present two enhancement strategies, namely intermediate matching loss and weight perturbation, to mitigate the potential occurrence of cumulative errors. We conduct extensive experiments on datasets of different scales, sizes, and resolutions. The results demonstrate that the proposed method significantly outperforms prior methods.

We present a straightforward statistical test to detect certain violations of the assumption that the data are Independent and Identically Distributed (IID). The specific form of violation considered is common across real-world applications: whether the examples are ordered in the dataset such that almost adjacent examples tend to have more similar feature values (e.g. due to distributional drift, or attractive interactions between datapoints). Based on a k-Nearest Neighbors estimate, our approach can be used to audit any multivariate numeric data as well as other data types (image, text, audio, etc.) that can be numerically represented, perhaps with model embeddings. Compared with existing methods to detect drift or auto-correlation, our approach is both applicable to more types of data and also able to detect a wider variety of IID violations in practice. Code: https://github.com/cleanlab/cleanlab

We discuss the numerical solution of initial value problems for varepsilon^2,varphi''+a(x),varphi=0 in the highly oscillatory regime, i.e., with a(x)>0 and 0<varepsilonll 1. We analyze and implement an approximate solution based on the well-known WKB-ansatz. The resulting approximation error is of magnitude O(varepsilon^{N}) where N refers to the truncation order of the underlying asymptotic series. When the optimal truncation order N_{opt} is chosen, the error behaves like O(varepsilon^{-2}exp(-cvarepsilon^{-1})) with some c>0.

Large pre-trained models decay over long-term deployment as input distributions shift, user requirements change, or crucial knowledge gaps are discovered. Recently, model editors have been proposed to modify a model's behavior by adjusting its weights during deployment. However, when editing the same model multiple times, these approaches quickly decay a model's performance on upstream data and forget how to fix previous errors. We propose and study a novel Lifelong Model Editing setting, where streaming errors are identified for a deployed model and we update the model to correct its predictions without influencing unrelated inputs without access to training edits, exogenous datasets, or any upstream data for the edited model. To approach this problem, we introduce General Retrieval Adaptors for Continual Editing, or GRACE, which learns to cache a chosen layer's activations in an adaptive codebook as edits stream in, leaving original model weights frozen. GRACE can thus edit models thousands of times in a row using only streaming errors, without influencing unrelated inputs. Experimentally, we show that GRACE improves over recent alternatives and generalizes to unseen inputs. Our code is available at https://www.github.com/thartvigsen/grace.

Streaming video generation, as one fundamental component in interactive world models and neural game engines, aims to generate high-quality, low-latency, and temporally coherent long video streams. However, most existing work suffers from severe error accumulation that often significantly degrades the generated stream videos over long horizons. We design Rolling Forcing, a novel video generation technique that enables streaming long videos with minimal error accumulation. Rolling Forcing comes with three novel designs. First, instead of iteratively sampling individual frames, which accelerates error propagation, we design a joint denoising scheme that simultaneously denoises multiple frames with progressively increasing noise levels. This design relaxes the strict causality across adjacent frames, effectively suppressing error growth. Second, we introduce the attention sink mechanism into the long-horizon stream video generation task, which allows the model to keep key value states of initial frames as a global context anchor and thereby enhances long-term global consistency. Third, we design an efficient training algorithm that enables few-step distillation over largely extended denoising windows. This algorithm operates on non-overlapping windows and mitigates exposure bias conditioned on self-generated histories. Extensive experiments show that Rolling Forcing enables real-time streaming generation of multi-minute videos on a single GPU, with substantially reduced error accumulation.

Preference learning enhances Code LLMs beyond supervised fine-tuning by leveraging relative quality comparisons. Existing methods construct preference pairs from candidates based on test case success, treating the higher pass rate sample as positive and the lower as negative. However, this approach does not pinpoint specific errors in the code, which prevents the model from learning more informative error correction patterns, as aligning failing code as a whole lacks the granularity needed to capture meaningful error-resolution relationships. To address these issues, we propose IterPref, a new preference alignment framework that mimics human iterative debugging to refine Code LLMs. IterPref explicitly locates error regions and aligns the corresponding tokens via a tailored DPO algorithm. To generate informative pairs, we introduce the CodeFlow dataset, where samples are iteratively refined until passing tests, with modifications capturing error corrections. Extensive experiments show that a diverse suite of Code LLMs equipped with IterPref achieves significant performance gains in code generation and improves on challenging tasks like BigCodeBench. In-depth analysis reveals that IterPref yields fewer errors. Our code and data will be made publicaly available.

Real-world large language model deployments (e.g., conversational AI systems, code generation assistants) naturally generate abundant implicit user dissatisfaction (DSAT) signals, as users iterate toward better answers through refinements, corrections, and expressed preferences, while explicit satisfaction (SAT) feedback is scarce. Existing preference learning approaches are poorly aligned with this data profile, as they rely on costly human annotations or assume plentiful positive responses. In this paper, we introduce DRIFT (Dissatisfaction-Refined Iterative preFerence Training), which anchors training on real-world DSAT signals and samples positives dynamically from the evolving policy. Empirically, DRIFT models trained on real-world WildFeedback datasets and synthetic UltraFeedback datasets achieve up to +6.23\% (7B) / +7.61\% (14B) on WildBench Task Score and up to +8.95\% (7B) / +12.29\% (14B) on AlpacaEval2 win rate over base models, outperforming strong baseline methods such as iterative DPO and SPIN. At larger scales, the improvements are particularly pronounced: 14B models trained with DRIFT surpass GPT-4o-mini on WildBench. Further analysis shows that DRIFT also preserves exploratory capacity, yielding more diverse high-reward solutions rather than collapsing to narrow subsets. Theoretically, we demonstrate that this design preserves preference margins and avoids the gradient degeneration. These results show that DRIFT is an effective and scalable recipe for real-world post-training that leverages the most abundant and informative signal. The code and data are available at https://github.com/cacayaya/DRIFT.git.

When facing data with imbalanced classes or groups, practitioners follow an intriguing strategy to achieve best results. They throw away examples until the classes or groups are balanced in size, and then perform empirical risk minimization on the reduced training set. This opposes common wisdom in learning theory, where the expected error is supposed to decrease as the dataset grows in size. In this work, we leverage extreme value theory to address this apparent contradiction. Our results show that the tails of the data distribution play an important role in determining the worst-group-accuracy of linear classifiers. When learning on data with heavy tails, throwing away data restores the geometric symmetry of the resulting classifier, and therefore improves its worst-group generalization.

Multi-agent systems (MAS) are increasingly capable of tackling complex real-world tasks, yet their reliance on inter-agent coordination, tool use, and long-horizon reasoning makes error recognition particularly challenging. Minor errors can propagate across agents, escalating into task failures while producing long, intertwined execution trajectories that impose significant costs for both human developers and automated systems to debug and analyze. Our key insight is that, despite surface differences in failure trajectories (e.g., logs), MAS errors often recur with similar structural patterns. This paper presents CORRECT, the first lightweight, training-free framework that leverages an online cache of distilled error schemata to recognize and transfer knowledge of failure structures across new requests. This cache-based reuse allows LLMs to perform targeted error localization at inference time, avoiding the need for expensive retraining while adapting to dynamic MAS deployments in subseconds. To support rigorous study in this domain, we also introduce CORRECT-Error, a large-scale dataset of over 2,000 annotated trajectories collected through a novel error-injection pipeline guided by real-world distributions, and further validated through human evaluation to ensure alignment with natural failure patterns. Experiments across seven diverse MAS applications show that CORRECT improves step-level error localization up to 19.8% over existing advances while at near-zero overhead, substantially narrowing the gap between automated and human-level error recognition.

We derive a simple and model-independent formula for the change in the generalization gap due to a gradient descent update. We then compare the change in the test error for stochastic gradient descent to the change in test error from an equivalent number of gradient descent updates and show explicitly that stochastic gradient descent acts to regularize generalization error by decorrelating nearby updates. These calculations depends on the details of the model only through the mean and covariance of the gradient distribution, which may be readily measured for particular models of interest. We discuss further improvements to these calculations and comment on possible implications for stochastic optimization.

Outliers introduce significant training challenges in neural networks by propagating erroneous gradients, which can degrade model performance and generalization. We propose the Z-Error Loss, a statistically principled approach that minimizes outlier influence during training by masking the contribution of data points identified as out-of-distribution within each batch. This method leverages batch-level statistics to automatically detect and exclude anomalous samples, allowing the model to focus its learning on the true underlying data structure. Our approach is robust, adaptive to data quality, and provides valuable diagnostics for data curation and cleaning.

Low-bit weight-only quantization significantly reduces the memory footprint of large language models (LLMs), but disproportionately affects certain examples. We analyze diverse 3-4 bit methods on LLMs ranging from 7B-70B in size and find that the quantization errors of 50 pairs of methods are strongly correlated (avg. 0.82) on FineWeb examples. Moreover, the residual stream magnitudes of full-precision models are indicative of future quantization errors. We further establish a hypothesis that relates the residual stream magnitudes to error amplification and accumulation over layers. Using LLM localization techniques, early exiting, and activation patching, we show that examples with large errors rely on precise residual activations in the late layers, and that the outputs of MLP gates play a crucial role in maintaining the perplexity. Our work reveals why certain examples result in large quantization errors and which model components are most critical for performance preservation.

Continual Instruction Tuning (CIT) is adopted to continually instruct Large Models to follow human intent data by data. It is observed that existing gradient update would heavily destroy the performance on previous datasets during CIT process. Instead, Exponential Moving Average (EMA), owns the ability to trace previous parameters, which can aid in decreasing forgetting. Nonetheless, its stable balance weight fails to deal with the ever-changing datasets, leading to the out-of-balance between plasticity and stability. In this paper, we propose a general continual instruction tuning framework to address the challenge. Starting from the trade-off prerequisite and EMA update, we propose the plasticity and stability ideal condition. Based on Taylor expansion in the loss function, we find the optimal balance weight can be automatically determined by the gradients and learned parameters. Therefore, we propose a stable-plasticity balanced coefficient to avoid knowledge interference. Based on the semantic similarity of the instructions, we can determine whether to retrain or expand the training parameters and allocate the most suitable parameters for the testing instances. Extensive experiments across multiple continual instruction tuning benchmarks demonstrate that our approach not only enhances anti-forgetting capabilities but also significantly improves overall continual tuning performance. Our code is available at https://github.com/JingyangQiao/CoIN.

This paper first answers the question "why do the two most powerful techniques Dropout and Batch Normalization (BN) often lead to a worse performance when they are combined together?" in both theoretical and statistical aspects. Theoretically, we find that Dropout would shift the variance of a specific neural unit when we transfer the state of that network from train to test. However, BN would maintain its statistical variance, which is accumulated from the entire learning procedure, in the test phase. The inconsistency of that variance (we name this scheme as "variance shift") causes the unstable numerical behavior in inference that leads to more erroneous predictions finally, when applying Dropout before BN. Thorough experiments on DenseNet, ResNet, ResNeXt and Wide ResNet confirm our findings. According to the uncovered mechanism, we next explore several strategies that modifies Dropout and try to overcome the limitations of their combination by avoiding the variance shift risks.

This paper addresses a regression problem in which output label values are the results of sensing the magnitude of a phenomenon. A low value of such labels can mean either that the actual magnitude of the phenomenon was low or that the sensor made an incomplete observation. This leads to a bias toward lower values in labels and the resultant learning because labels may have lower values due to incomplete observations, even if the actual magnitude of the phenomenon was high. Moreover, because an incomplete observation does not provide any tags indicating incompleteness, we cannot eliminate or impute them. To address this issue, we propose a learning algorithm that explicitly models incomplete observations corrupted with an asymmetric noise that always has a negative value. We show that our algorithm is unbiased as if it were learned from uncorrupted data that does not involve incomplete observations. We demonstrate the advantages of our algorithm through numerical experiments.

It is well known that many open-released foundational diffusion models have difficulty in generating images that substantially depart from average brightness, despite such images being present in the training data. This is due to an inconsistency: while denoising starts from pure Gaussian noise during inference, the training noise schedule retains residual data even in the final timestep distribution, due to difficulties in numerical conditioning in mainstream formulation, leading to unintended bias during inference. To mitigate this issue, certain epsilon-prediction models are combined with an ad-hoc offset-noise methodology. In parallel, some contemporary models have adopted zero-terminal SNR noise schedules together with v-prediction, which necessitate major alterations to pre-trained models. However, such changes risk destabilizing a large multitude of community-driven applications anchored on these pre-trained models. In light of this, our investigation revisits the fundamental causes, leading to our proposal of an innovative and principled remedy, called One More Step (OMS). By integrating a compact network and incorporating an additional simple yet effective step during inference, OMS elevates image fidelity and harmonizes the dichotomy between training and inference, while preserving original model parameters. Once trained, various pre-trained diffusion models with the same latent domain can share the same OMS module.

Noise plagues many numerical datasets, where the recorded values in the data may fail to match the true underlying values due to reasons including: erroneous sensors, data entry/processing mistakes, or imperfect human estimates. We consider general regression settings with covariates and a potentially corrupted response whose observed values may contain errors. By accounting for various uncertainties, we introduced veracity scores that distinguish between genuine errors and natural data fluctuations, conditioned on the available covariate information in the dataset. We propose a simple yet efficient filtering procedure for eliminating potential errors, and establish theoretical guarantees for our method. We also contribute a new error detection benchmark involving 5 regression datasets with real-world numerical errors (for which the true values are also known). In this benchmark and additional simulation studies, our method identifies incorrect values with better precision/recall than other approaches.

stream-learn is a Python package compatible with scikit-learn and developed for the drifting and imbalanced data stream analysis. Its main component is a stream generator, which allows to produce a synthetic data stream that may incorporate each of the three main concept drift types (i.e. sudden, gradual and incremental drift) in their recurring or non-recurring versions. The package allows conducting experiments following established evaluation methodologies (i.e. Test-Then-Train and Prequential). In addition, estimators adapted for data stream classification have been implemented, including both simple classifiers and state-of-art chunk-based and online classifier ensembles. To improve computational efficiency, package utilises its own implementations of prediction metrics for imbalanced binary classification tasks.

During both pretraining and fine-tuning, Large Language Models (LLMs) are trained on trillions of tokens of text of widely varying quality. Both phases of training typically involve heuristically filtering out ``low-quality'' or noisy training samples, yet little is known quantitatively about how the type or intensity of noise affects downstream performance. In this work, we study how noise in chain of thought (CoT) impacts task performance in the highly-controlled setting of algorithmically solvable tasks. First, we develop the Traced Integer (TInt) framework to generate highly customizable noised execution traces for any arithmetic function on lists of integers. We then define two types of noise: static noise, a local form of noise which is applied after the CoT trace is computed, and dynamic noise, a global form of noise which propagates errors in the trace as it is computed. We then evaluate the test performance of pretrained models both prompted and fine-tuned on noised datasets with varying levels of dataset contamination and intensity. We find fine-tuned models are extremely robust to high levels of static noise but struggle significantly more with lower levels of dynamic noise. In contrast, few-shot prompted models appear more sensitive to even static noise. We conclude with a discussion of how our findings impact noise filtering best-practices, in particular emphasizing the importance of removing samples containing destructive dynamic noise with global errors.

Discrete diffusion models have emerged as a promising direction for vision-language tasks, offering bidirectional context modeling and theoretical parallelization. However, their practical application is severely hindered by a train-inference discrepancy, which leads to catastrophic error cascades: initial token errors during parallel decoding pollute the generation context, triggering a chain reaction of compounding errors and leading to syntactic errors and semantic hallucinations. To address this fundamental challenge, we reframe the generation process from passive denoising to active refining. We introduce ReDiff, a refining-enhanced diffusion framework that teaches the model to identify and correct its own errors. Our approach features a two-stage training process: first, we instill a foundational revision capability by training the model to revise synthetic errors; second, we implement a novel online self-correction loop where the model is explicitly trained to revise its own flawed drafts by learning from an expert's corrections. This mistake-driven learning endows the model with the crucial ability to revisit and refine its already generated output, effectively breaking the error cascade. Extensive experiments demonstrate that ReDiff significantly improves the coherence and factual accuracy of generated content, enabling stable and efficient parallel generation far superior to traditional denoising methods. Our codes and models are available at https://rediff-hku.github.io/.

Since experiencing domain shifts during test-time is inevitable in practice, test-time adaption (TTA) continues to adapt the model after deployment. Recently, the area of continual and gradual test-time adaptation (TTA) emerged. In contrast to standard TTA, continual TTA considers not only a single domain shift, but a sequence of shifts. Gradual TTA further exploits the property that some shifts evolve gradually over time. Since in both settings long test sequences are present, error accumulation needs to be addressed for methods relying on self-training. In this work, we propose and show that in the setting of TTA, the symmetric cross-entropy is better suited as a consistency loss for mean teachers compared to the commonly used cross-entropy. This is justified by our analysis with respect to the (symmetric) cross-entropy's gradient properties. To pull the test feature space closer to the source domain, where the pre-trained model is well posed, contrastive learning is leveraged. Since applications differ in their requirements, we address several settings, including having source data available and the more challenging source-free setting. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method 'robust mean teacher' (RMT) on the continual and gradual corruption benchmarks CIFAR10C, CIFAR100C, and Imagenet-C. We further consider ImageNet-R and propose a new continual DomainNet-126 benchmark. State-of-the-art results are achieved on all benchmarks.

Best-of-N (BoN) Average Displacement Error (ADE)/ Final Displacement Error (FDE) is the most used metric for evaluating trajectory prediction models. Yet, the BoN does not quantify the whole generated samples, resulting in an incomplete view of the model's prediction quality and performance. We propose a new metric, Average Mahalanobis Distance (AMD) to tackle this issue. AMD is a metric that quantifies how close the whole generated samples are to the ground truth. We also introduce the Average Maximum Eigenvalue (AMV) metric that quantifies the overall spread of the predictions. Our metrics are validated empirically by showing that the ADE/FDE is not sensitive to distribution shifts, giving a biased sense of accuracy, unlike the AMD/AMV metrics. We introduce the usage of Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation (IMLE) as a replacement for traditional generative models to train our model, Social-Implicit. IMLE training mechanism aligns with AMD/AMV objective of predicting trajectories that are close to the ground truth with a tight spread. Social-Implicit is a memory efficient deep model with only 5.8K parameters that runs in real time of about 580Hz and achieves competitive results. Interactive demo of the problem can be seen at https://www.abduallahmohamed.com/social-implicit-amdamv-adefde-demo . Code is available at https://github.com/abduallahmohamed/Social-Implicit .

We propose a new method for generating realistic datasets with distribution shifts using any decoder-based generative model. Our approach systematically creates datasets with varying intensities of distribution shifts, facilitating a comprehensive analysis of model performance degradation. We then use these generated datasets to evaluate the performance of various commonly used networks and observe a consistent decline in performance with increasing shift intensity, even when the effect is almost perceptually unnoticeable to the human eye. We see this degradation even when using data augmentations. We also find that enlarging the training dataset beyond a certain point has no effect on the robustness and that stronger inductive biases increase robustness.

Models trained on different datasets can be merged by a weighted-averaging of their parameters, but why does it work and when can it fail? Here, we connect the inaccuracy of weighted-averaging to mismatches in the gradients and propose a new uncertainty-based scheme to improve the performance by reducing the mismatch. The connection also reveals implicit assumptions in other schemes such as averaging, task arithmetic, and Fisher-weighted averaging. Our new method gives consistent improvements for large language models and vision transformers, both in terms of performance and robustness to hyperparameters.

Long chain-of-thought (CoT) supervision has become a common strategy to enhance reasoning in language models. While effective for large models, we identify a phenomenon we call Long CoT Degradation, in which small language models (SLMs; <=3B parameters) trained on limited long CoT data experience significant performance deterioration. Through extensive experiments on the Qwen2.5, LLaMA3 and Gemma3 families, we demonstrate that this degradation is widespread across SLMs. In some settings, models trained on only 8k long CoT examples lose up to 75% of their original performance before fine-tuning. Strikingly, we further observe that for some particularly small models, even training on 220k long CoT examples fails to recover or surpass their original performance prior to fine-tuning. Our analysis attributes this effect to error accumulation: while longer responses increase the capacity for multi-step reasoning, they also amplify the risk of compounding mistakes. Furthermore, we find that Long CoT Degradation may negatively impacts downstream reinforcement learning (RL), although this can be alleviated by sufficiently scaled supervised fine-tuning (SFT). Our findings challenge common assumptions about the benefits of long CoT training for SLMs and offer practical guidance for building more effective small-scale reasoning models.

Large Language Models have demonstrated superior performance across a wide range of tasks, but they still exhibit undesirable errors due to incorrect knowledge learned from the training data. To avoid this, knowledge editing methods emerged to precisely edit the specific model knowledge via efficiently modifying a very small percentage of parameters. % However, those methods can lead to the problem of Specificity Failure: when the content related to the edited knowledge occurs in the context, it can inadvertently corrupt other pre-existing knowledge. However, those methods can lead to the problem of Specificity Failure, where the existing knowledge and capabilities are severely degraded due to editing. Our preliminary indicates that Specificity Failure primarily stems from the model's attention heads assigning excessive attention scores to entities related to the edited knowledge, thereby unduly focusing on specific snippets within the context, which we denote as the Attention Drift phenomenon. To mitigate such Attention Drift issue, we introduce a simple yet effective method Selective Attention Drift Restriction}(SADR), which introduces an additional regularization term during the knowledge editing process to restrict changes in the attention weight distribution, thereby preventing undue focus on the edited entity. Experiments on five frequently used strong LLMs demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, where SADR can significantly mitigate Specificity Failure in the predominant knowledge editing tasks.

As the number of Internet of Things (IoT) devices and systems have surged, IoT data analytics techniques have been developed to detect malicious cyber-attacks and secure IoT systems; however, concept drift issues often occur in IoT data analytics, as IoT data is often dynamic data streams that change over time, causing model degradation and attack detection failure. This is because traditional data analytics models are static models that cannot adapt to data distribution changes. In this paper, we propose a Performance Weighted Probability Averaging Ensemble (PWPAE) framework for drift adaptive IoT anomaly detection through IoT data stream analytics. Experiments on two public datasets show the effectiveness of our proposed PWPAE method compared against state-of-the-art methods.

We discover that common diffusion noise schedules do not enforce the last timestep to have zero signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), and some implementations of diffusion samplers do not start from the last timestep. Such designs are flawed and do not reflect the fact that the model is given pure Gaussian noise at inference, creating a discrepancy between training and inference. We show that the flawed design causes real problems in existing implementations. In Stable Diffusion, it severely limits the model to only generate images with medium brightness and prevents it from generating very bright and dark samples. We propose a few simple fixes: (1) rescale the noise schedule to enforce zero terminal SNR; (2) train the model with v prediction; (3) change the sampler to always start from the last timestep; (4) rescale classifier-free guidance to prevent over-exposure. These simple changes ensure the diffusion process is congruent between training and inference and allow the model to generate samples more faithful to the original data distribution.

Typical neural network trainings have substantial variance in test-set performance between repeated runs, impeding hyperparameter comparison and training reproducibility. We present the following results towards understanding this variation. (1) Despite having significant variance on their test-sets, we demonstrate that standard CIFAR-10 and ImageNet trainings have very little variance in their performance on the test-distributions from which those test-sets are sampled, suggesting that variance is less of a practical issue than previously thought. (2) We present a simplifying statistical assumption which closely approximates the structure of the test-set accuracy distribution. (3) We argue that test-set variance is inevitable in the following two senses. First, we show that variance is largely caused by high sensitivity of the training process to initial conditions, rather than by specific sources of randomness like the data order and augmentations. Second, we prove that variance is unavoidable given the observation that ensembles of trained networks are well-calibrated. (4) We conduct preliminary studies of distribution-shift, fine-tuning, data augmentation and learning rate through the lens of variance between runs.

Prior work has shown that fine-tuning models on a narrow domain with misaligned data can lead to broad misalignment - a phenomenon termed "emergent misalignment" (Betley et al. 2025). While all tested models were susceptible to emergent misalignment, some models showed more resistance than others. Specifically the Qwen-2.5 family proved to be relatively resistant, while GPT-4o exhibited the strongest misalignment. In this paper we evaluate if current-generation open-weights models exhibit similar resistance to the Qwen-2.5 family and measure misalignment robustness over a range of model architectures and scales. We replicate the effect across nine modern open-weights models (Gemma 3 and Qwen 3 families, 1B-32B parameters). Models fine-tuned on insecure code generation show a 0.68% misalignment rate (compared to 0.07% for base models), matching the lower end of prior open-model results but dramatically lower than GPT-4o's 20%. We identify a critical format-dependent vulnerability: requiring JSON output doubles misalignment rates compared to natural language prompts (0.96% vs 0.42%). This suggests that structural constraints may bypass safety training by reducing the model's 'degrees of freedom' to refuse. These findings confirm emergent misalignment as a reproducible phenomenon in modern open-weights models, with rates substantially lower than observed in proprietary systems.

Diffusion models have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in generating high-quality samples and enhancing performance across diverse domains through Classifier-Free Guidance (CFG). However, the quality of generated samples is highly sensitive to the selection of the guidance weight. In this work, we identify a critical ``training-inference gap'' and we argue that it is the presence of this gap that undermines the performance of conditional generation and renders outputs highly sensitive to the guidance weight. We quantify this gap by measuring the accumulated error during the inference stage and establish a correlation between the selection of guidance weight and minimizing this gap. Furthermore, to mitigate this gap, we propose DiffIER, an optimization-based method for high-quality generation. We demonstrate that the accumulated error can be effectively reduced by an iterative error minimization at each step during inference. By introducing this novel plug-and-play optimization framework, we enable the optimization of errors at every single inference step and enhance generation quality. Empirical results demonstrate that our proposed method outperforms baseline approaches in conditional generation tasks. Furthermore, the method achieves consistent success in text-to-image generation, image super-resolution, and text-to-speech generation, underscoring its versatility and potential for broad applications in future research.

Neural networks are very effective when trained on large datasets for a large number of iterations. However, when they are trained on non-stationary streams of data and in an online fashion, their performance is reduced (1) by the online setup, which limits the availability of data, (2) due to catastrophic forgetting because of the non-stationary nature of the data. Furthermore, several recent works (Caccia et al., 2022; Lange et al., 2023) arXiv:2205.13452 showed that replay methods used in continual learning suffer from the stability gap, encountered when evaluating the model continually (rather than only on task boundaries). In this article, we study the effect of model ensembling as a way to improve performance and stability in online continual learning. We notice that naively ensembling models coming from a variety of training tasks increases the performance in online continual learning considerably. Starting from this observation, and drawing inspirations from semi-supervised learning ensembling methods, we use a lightweight temporal ensemble that computes the exponential moving average of the weights (EMA) at test time, and show that it can drastically increase the performance and stability when used in combination with several methods from the literature.

Generative processes that involve solving differential equations, such as diffusion models, frequently necessitate balancing speed and quality. ODE-based samplers are fast but plateau in performance while SDE-based samplers deliver higher sample quality at the cost of increased sampling time. We attribute this difference to sampling errors: ODE-samplers involve smaller discretization errors while stochasticity in SDE contracts accumulated errors. Based on these findings, we propose a novel sampling algorithm called Restart in order to better balance discretization errors and contraction. The sampling method alternates between adding substantial noise in additional forward steps and strictly following a backward ODE. Empirically, Restart sampler surpasses previous SDE and ODE samplers in both speed and accuracy. Restart not only outperforms the previous best SDE results, but also accelerates the sampling speed by 10-fold / 2-fold on CIFAR-10 / ImageNet 64 times 64. In addition, it attains significantly better sample quality than ODE samplers within comparable sampling times. Moreover, Restart better balances text-image alignment/visual quality versus diversity than previous samplers in the large-scale text-to-image Stable Diffusion model pre-trained on LAION 512 times 512. Code is available at https://github.com/Newbeeer/diffusion_restart_sampling

Stochasticity in language model fine-tuning, often caused by the small batch sizes typically used in this regime, can destabilize training by introducing large oscillations in generation quality. A popular approach to mitigating this instability is to take an Exponential moving average (EMA) of weights throughout training. While EMA reduces stochasticity, thereby smoothing training, the introduction of bias from old iterates often creates a lag in optimization relative to vanilla training. In this work, we propose the Bias-Corrected Exponential Moving Average (BEMA), a simple and practical augmentation of EMA that retains variance-reduction benefits while eliminating bias. BEMA is motivated by a simple theoretical model wherein we demonstrate provable acceleration of BEMA over both a standard EMA and vanilla training. Through an extensive suite of experiments on Language Models, we show that BEMA leads to significantly improved convergence rates and final performance over both EMA and vanilla training in a variety of standard LM benchmarks, making BEMA a practical and theoretically motivated intervention for more stable and efficient fine-tuning.

Background: Deep learning models are typically trained using stochastic gradient descent or one of its variants. These methods update the weights using their gradient, estimated from a small fraction of the training data. It has been observed that when using large batch sizes there is a persistent degradation in generalization performance - known as the "generalization gap" phenomena. Identifying the origin of this gap and closing it had remained an open problem. Contributions: We examine the initial high learning rate training phase. We find that the weight distance from its initialization grows logarithmically with the number of weight updates. We therefore propose a "random walk on random landscape" statistical model which is known to exhibit similar "ultra-slow" diffusion behavior. Following this hypothesis we conducted experiments to show empirically that the "generalization gap" stems from the relatively small number of updates rather than the batch size, and can be completely eliminated by adapting the training regime used. We further investigate different techniques to train models in the large-batch regime and present a novel algorithm named "Ghost Batch Normalization" which enables significant decrease in the generalization gap without increasing the number of updates. To validate our findings we conduct several additional experiments on MNIST, CIFAR-10, CIFAR-100 and ImageNet. Finally, we reassess common practices and beliefs concerning training of deep models and suggest they may not be optimal to achieve good generalization.

Recent work by Power et al. (2022) highlighted a surprising "grokking" phenomenon in learning arithmetic tasks: a neural net first "memorizes" the training set, resulting in perfect training accuracy but near-random test accuracy, and after training for sufficiently longer, it suddenly transitions to perfect test accuracy. This paper studies the grokking phenomenon in theoretical setups and shows that it can be induced by a dichotomy of early and late phase implicit biases. Specifically, when training homogeneous neural nets with large initialization and small weight decay on both classification and regression tasks, we prove that the training process gets trapped at a solution corresponding to a kernel predictor for a long time, and then a very sharp transition to min-norm/max-margin predictors occurs, leading to a dramatic change in test accuracy.

Building learning agents that can progressively learn and accumulate knowledge is the core goal of the continual learning (CL) research field. Unfortunately, training a model on new data usually compromises the performance on past data. In the CL literature, this effect is referred to as catastrophic forgetting (CF). CF has been largely studied, and a plethora of methods have been proposed to address it on short sequences of non-overlapping tasks. In such setups, CF always leads to a quick and significant drop in performance in past tasks. Nevertheless, despite CF, recent work showed that SGD training on linear models accumulates knowledge in a CL regression setup. This phenomenon becomes especially visible when tasks reoccur. We might then wonder if DNNs trained with SGD or any standard gradient-based optimization accumulate knowledge in such a way. Such phenomena would have interesting consequences for applying DNNs to real continual scenarios. Indeed, standard gradient-based optimization methods are significantly less computationally expensive than existing CL algorithms. In this paper, we study the progressive knowledge accumulation (KA) in DNNs trained with gradient-based algorithms in long sequences of tasks with data re-occurrence. We propose a new framework, SCoLe (Scaling Continual Learning), to investigate KA and discover that catastrophic forgetting has a limited effect on DNNs trained with SGD. When trained on long sequences with data sparsely re-occurring, the overall accuracy improves, which might be counter-intuitive given the CF phenomenon. We empirically investigate KA in DNNs under various data occurrence frequencies and propose simple and scalable strategies to increase knowledge accumulation in DNNs.

Training vision or language models on large datasets can take days, if not weeks. We show that averaging the weights of the k latest checkpoints, each collected at the end of an epoch, can speed up the training progression in terms of loss and accuracy by dozens of epochs, corresponding to time savings up to ~68 and ~30 GPU hours when training a ResNet50 on ImageNet and RoBERTa-Base model on WikiText-103, respectively. We also provide the code and model checkpoint trajectory to reproduce the results and facilitate research on reusing historical weights for faster convergence.

We revisit the common practice of evaluating adaptation of Online Continual Learning (OCL) algorithms through the metric of online accuracy, which measures the accuracy of the model on the immediate next few samples. However, we show that this metric is unreliable, as even vacuous blind classifiers, which do not use input images for prediction, can achieve unrealistically high online accuracy by exploiting spurious label correlations in the data stream. Our study reveals that existing OCL algorithms can also achieve high online accuracy, but perform poorly in retaining useful information, suggesting that they unintentionally learn spurious label correlations. To address this issue, we propose a novel metric for measuring adaptation based on the accuracy on the near-future samples, where spurious correlations are removed. We benchmark existing OCL approaches using our proposed metric on large-scale datasets under various computational budgets and find that better generalization can be achieved by retaining and reusing past seen information. We believe that our proposed metric can aid in the development of truly adaptive OCL methods. We provide code to reproduce our results at https://github.com/drimpossible/EvalOCL.

This work studies training instabilities of behavior cloning with deep neural networks. We observe that minibatch SGD updates to the policy network during training result in sharp oscillations in long-horizon rewards, despite negligibly affecting the behavior cloning loss. We empirically disentangle the statistical and computational causes of these oscillations, and find them to stem from the chaotic propagation of minibatch SGD noise through unstable closed-loop dynamics. While SGD noise is benign in the single-step action prediction objective, it results in catastrophic error accumulation over long horizons, an effect we term gradient variance amplification (GVA). We show that many standard mitigation techniques do not alleviate GVA, but find an exponential moving average (EMA) of iterates to be surprisingly effective at doing so. We illustrate the generality of this phenomenon by showing the existence of GVA and its amelioration by EMA in both continuous control and autoregressive language generation. Finally, we provide theoretical vignettes that highlight the benefits of EMA in alleviating GVA and shed light on the extent to which classical convex models can help in understanding the benefits of iterate averaging in deep learning.

Reinforcement learning (RL) fine-tuning of large language models (LLMs) often suffers from instability due to the numerical mismatch between the training and inference policies. While prior work has attempted to mitigate this issue through algorithmic corrections or engineering alignments, we show that its root cause lies in the floating point precision itself. The widely adopted BF16, despite its large dynamic range, introduces large rounding errors that breaks the consistency between training and inference. In this work, we demonstrate that simply reverting to FP16 effectively eliminates this mismatch. The change is simple, fully supported by modern frameworks with only a few lines of code change, and requires no modification to the model architecture or learning algorithm. Our results suggest that using FP16 uniformly yields more stable optimization, faster convergence, and stronger performance across diverse tasks, algorithms and frameworks. We hope these findings motivate a broader reconsideration of precision trade-offs in RL fine-tuning.

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have improved their performance on coding benchmarks. However, improvement is plateauing due to the exhaustion of readily available high-quality data. Prior work has shown the potential of synthetic self-instruct data, but naively training on a model's own outputs can cause error accumulation, especially in coding tasks, where generalization may collapse due to overly simple or erroneous training data, highlighting the need for rigorous quality checks on synthetic data. In this work, we explore an effective approach whereby the model itself verifies the correctness of its own data. We thus propose Sol-Ver, a self-play solver-verifier framework that jointly improves a single model's code and test generation capacity. By iteratively refining code (LLM-as-a-solver) and tests (LLM-as-a-verifier) together, we boost both capabilities without relying on human annotations or larger teacher models. Experiments with the Llama 3.1 8B model demonstrate substantial performance enhancements, achieving average relative improvements of 19.63% in code generation and 17.49% in test generation on MBPP and LiveCodeBench.

Teams that have trained large Transformer-based models have reported training instabilities at large scale that did not appear when training with the same hyperparameters at smaller scales. Although the causes of such instabilities are of scientific interest, the amount of resources required to reproduce them has made investigation difficult. In this work, we seek ways to reproduce and study training stability and instability at smaller scales. First, we focus on two sources of training instability described in previous work: the growth of logits in attention layers (Dehghani et al., 2023) and divergence of the output logits from the log probabilities (Chowdhery et al., 2022). By measuring the relationship between learning rate and loss across scales, we show that these instabilities also appear in small models when training at high learning rates, and that mitigations previously employed at large scales are equally effective in this regime. This prompts us to investigate the extent to which other known optimizer and model interventions influence the sensitivity of the final loss to changes in the learning rate. To this end, we study methods such as warm-up, weight decay, and the muParam (Yang et al., 2022), and combine techniques to train small models that achieve similar losses across orders of magnitude of learning rate variation. Finally, to conclude our exploration we study two cases where instabilities can be predicted before they emerge by examining the scaling behavior of model activation and gradient norms.

Large pre-trained, zero-shot capable models have shown considerable success both for standard transfer and adaptation tasks, with particular robustness towards distribution shifts. In addition, subsequent fine-tuning can considerably improve performance on a selected downstream task. However, through naive fine-tuning, these zero-shot models lose their generalizability and robustness towards distribution shifts. This is a particular problem for tasks such as Continual Learning (CL), where continuous adaptation has to be performed as new task distributions are introduced sequentially. In this work, we showcase that where fine-tuning falls short to adapt such zero-shot capable models, simple momentum-based weight interpolation can provide consistent improvements for CL tasks in both memory-free and memory-based settings. In particular, we find improvements of over +4% on standard CL benchmarks, while reducing the error to the upper limit of jointly training on all tasks at once in parts by more than half, allowing the continual learner to inch closer to the joint training limits.

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) reveal a perplexing phenomenon in continual learning: despite extensive training, models experience significant performance declines, raising questions about task alignment and underlying knowledge retention. This study first explores the concept of "spurious forgetting", proposing that such performance drops often reflect a decline in task alignment rather than true knowledge loss. Through controlled experiments with a synthesized dataset, we investigate the dynamics of model performance during the initial training phases of new tasks, discovering that early optimization steps can disrupt previously established task alignments. Our theoretical analysis connects these shifts to orthogonal updates in model weights, providing a robust framework for understanding this behavior. Ultimately, we introduce a Freezing strategy that fix the bottom layers of the model, leading to substantial improvements in four continual learning scenarios. Our findings underscore the critical distinction between task alignment and knowledge retention, paving the way for more effective strategies in continual learning.

Evaluating the performance of machine learning models under distribution shift is challenging, especially when we only have unlabeled data from the shifted (target) domain, along with labeled data from the original (source) domain. Recent work suggests that the notion of disagreement, the degree to which two models trained with different randomness differ on the same input, is a key to tackle this problem. Experimentally, disagreement and prediction error have been shown to be strongly connected, which has been used to estimate model performance. Experiments have led to the discovery of the disagreement-on-the-line phenomenon, whereby the classification error under the target domain is often a linear function of the classification error under the source domain; and whenever this property holds, disagreement under the source and target domain follow the same linear relation. In this work, we develop a theoretical foundation for analyzing disagreement in high-dimensional random features regression; and study under what conditions the disagreement-on-the-line phenomenon occurs in our setting. Experiments on CIFAR-10-C, Tiny ImageNet-C, and Camelyon17 are consistent with our theory and support the universality of the theoretical findings.

Mining data streams with multi-label outputs poses significant challenges due to evolving distributions, high-dimensional label spaces, sparse label occurrences, and complex label dependencies. Moreover, concept drift affects not only input distributions but also label correlations and imbalance ratios over time, complicating model adaptation. To address these challenges, structured learners are categorized into local and global methods. Local methods break down the task into simpler components, while global methods adapt the algorithm to the full output space, potentially yielding better predictions by exploiting label correlations. This work introduces iHOMER (Incremental Hierarchy Of Multi-label Classifiers), an online multi-label learning framework that incrementally partitions the label space into disjoint, correlated clusters without relying on predefined hierarchies. iHOMER leverages online divisive-agglomerative clustering based on Jaccard similarity and a global tree-based learner driven by a multivariate Bernoulli process to guide instance partitioning. To address non-stationarity, it integrates drift detection mechanisms at both global and local levels, enabling dynamic restructuring of label partitions and subtrees. Experiments across 23 real-world datasets show iHOMER outperforms 5 state-of-the-art global baselines, such as MLHAT, MLHT of Pruned Sets and iSOUPT, by 23\%, and 12 local baselines, such as binary relevance transformations of kNN, EFDT, ARF, and ADWIN bagging/boosting ensembles, by 32\%, establishing its robustness for online multi-label classification.

An algorithm to estimate the evolution of learning curves on the whole of a training data base, based on the results obtained from a portion and using a functional strategy, is introduced. We approximate iteratively the sought value at the desired time, independently of the learning technique used and once a point in the process, called prediction level, has been passed. The proposal proves to be formally correct with respect to our working hypotheses and includes a reliable proximity condition. This allows the user to fix a convergence threshold with respect to the accuracy finally achievable, which extends the concept of stopping criterion and seems to be effective even in the presence of distorting observations. Our aim is to evaluate the training effort, supporting decision making in order to reduce the need for both human and computational resources during the learning process. The proposal is of interest in at least three operational procedures. The first is the anticipation of accuracy gain, with the purpose of measuring how much work is needed to achieve a certain degree of performance. The second relates the comparison of efficiency between systems at training time, with the objective of completing this task only for the one that best suits our requirements. The prediction of accuracy is also a valuable item of information for customizing systems, since we can estimate in advance the impact of settings on both the performance and the development costs. Using the generation of part-of-speech taggers as an example application, the experimental results are consistent with our expectations.

Recent Reinforcement Learning (RL) algorithms making use of Kullback-Leibler (KL) regularization as a core component have shown outstanding performance. Yet, only little is understood theoretically about why KL regularization helps, so far. We study KL regularization within an approximate value iteration scheme and show that it implicitly averages q-values. Leveraging this insight, we provide a very strong performance bound, the very first to combine two desirable aspects: a linear dependency to the horizon (instead of quadratic) and an error propagation term involving an averaging effect of the estimation errors (instead of an accumulation effect). We also study the more general case of an additional entropy regularizer. The resulting abstract scheme encompasses many existing RL algorithms. Some of our assumptions do not hold with neural networks, so we complement this theoretical analysis with an extensive empirical study.

Data Drift is the phenomenon where the generating model behind the data changes over time. Due to data drift, any model built on the past training data becomes less relevant and inaccurate over time. Thus, detecting and controlling for data drift is critical in machine learning models. Hierarchical Temporal Memory (HTM) is a machine learning model developed by Jeff Hawkins, inspired by how the human brain processes information. It is a biologically inspired model of memory that is similar in structure to the neocortex, and whose performance is claimed to be comparable to state of the art models in detecting anomalies in time series data. Another unique benefit of HTMs is its independence from training and testing cycle; all the learning takes place online with streaming data and no separate training and testing cycle is required. In sequential learning paradigm, Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPRT) offers some unique benefit for online learning and inference. This paper proposes a novel hybrid framework combining HTM and SPRT for real-time data drift detection and anomaly identification. Unlike existing data drift methods, our approach eliminates frequent retraining and ensures low false positive rates. HTMs currently work with one dimensional or univariate data. In a second study, we also propose an application of HTM in multidimensional supervised scenario for anomaly detection by combining the outputs of multiple HTM columns, one for each dimension of the data, through a neural network. Experimental evaluations demonstrate that the proposed method outperforms conventional drift detection techniques like the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test, Wasserstein distance, and Population Stability Index (PSI) in terms of accuracy, adaptability, and computational efficiency. Our experiments also provide insights into optimizing hyperparameters for real-time deployment in domains such as Telecom.

The asymptotically precise estimation of the generalization of kernel methods has recently received attention due to the parallels between neural networks and their associated kernels. However, prior works derive such estimates for training by kernel ridge regression (KRR), whereas neural networks are typically trained with gradient descent (GD). In the present work, we consider the training of kernels with a family of spectral algorithms specified by profile h(lambda), and including KRR and GD as special cases. Then, we derive the generalization error as a functional of learning profile h(lambda) for two data models: high-dimensional Gaussian and low-dimensional translation-invariant model. Under power-law assumptions on the spectrum of the kernel and target, we use our framework to (i) give full loss asymptotics for both noisy and noiseless observations (ii) show that the loss localizes on certain spectral scales, giving a new perspective on the KRR saturation phenomenon (iii) conjecture, and demonstrate for the considered data models, the universality of the loss w.r.t. non-spectral details of the problem, but only in case of noisy observation.

Large language models (LLMs) now write code in settings where misreading a single word can break safety or cost money, yet we still expect them to overlook stray typos. To probe where useful robustness ends and harmful insensitivity begins, we compile 50 LeetCode problems and craft three minimal prompt perturbations that should vary in importance: (i) progressive underspecification deleting 10 % of words per step; (ii) lexical flip swapping a pivotal quantifier ("max" to "min"); and (iii) jargon inflation replacing a common noun with an obscure technical synonym. Six frontier models, including three "reasoning-tuned" versions, solve each mutated prompt, and their Python outputs are checked against the original test suites to reveal whether they reused the baseline solution or adapted. Among 11 853 generations we observe a sharp double asymmetry. Models remain correct in 85 % of cases even after 90 % of the prompt is missing, showing over-robustness to underspecification, yet only 54 % react to a single quantifier flip that reverses the task, with reasoning-tuned variants even less sensitive than their bases. Jargon edits lie in between, passing through 56 %. Current LLMs thus blur the line between harmless noise and meaning - changing edits, often treating both as ignorable. Masking salient anchors such as function names can force re - evaluation. We advocate evaluation and training protocols that reward differential sensitivity: stay steady under benign noise but adapt - or refuse - when semantics truly change.

Heavy-tail phenomena in stochastic gradient descent (SGD) have been reported in several empirical studies. Experimental evidence in previous works suggests a strong interplay between the heaviness of the tails and generalization behavior of SGD. To address this empirical phenomena theoretically, several works have made strong topological and statistical assumptions to link the generalization error to heavy tails. Very recently, new generalization bounds have been proven, indicating a non-monotonic relationship between the generalization error and heavy tails, which is more pertinent to the reported empirical observations. While these bounds do not require additional topological assumptions given that SGD can be modeled using a heavy-tailed stochastic differential equation (SDE), they can only apply to simple quadratic problems. In this paper, we build on this line of research and develop generalization bounds for a more general class of objective functions, which includes non-convex functions as well. Our approach is based on developing Wasserstein stability bounds for heavy-tailed SDEs and their discretizations, which we then convert to generalization bounds. Our results do not require any nontrivial assumptions; yet, they shed more light to the empirical observations, thanks to the generality of the loss functions.

Recent advancements in latent diffusion models (LDMs) have markedly enhanced text-to-audio generation, yet their iterative sampling processes impose substantial computational demands, limiting practical deployment. While recent methods utilizing consistency-based distillation aim to achieve few-step or single-step inference, their one-step performance is constrained by curved trajectories, preventing them from surpassing traditional diffusion models. In this work, we introduce FlashAudio with rectified flows to learn straight flow for fast simulation. To alleviate the inefficient timesteps allocation and suboptimal distribution of noise, FlashAudio optimizes the time distribution of rectified flow with Bifocal Samplers and proposes immiscible flow to minimize the total distance of data-noise pairs in a batch vias assignment. Furthermore, to address the amplified accumulation error caused by the classifier-free guidance (CFG), we propose Anchored Optimization, which refines the guidance scale by anchoring it to a reference trajectory. Experimental results on text-to-audio generation demonstrate that FlashAudio's one-step generation performance surpasses the diffusion-based models with hundreds of sampling steps on audio quality and enables a sampling speed of 400x faster than real-time on a single NVIDIA 4090Ti GPU.

The statistical distribution of content uploaded and searched on media sharing sites changes over time due to seasonal, sociological and technical factors. We investigate the impact of this "content drift" for large-scale similarity search tools, based on nearest neighbor search in embedding space. Unless a costly index reconstruction is performed frequently, content drift degrades the search accuracy and efficiency. The degradation is especially severe since, in general, both the query and database distributions change. We introduce and analyze real-world image and video datasets for which temporal information is available over a long time period. Based on the learnings, we devise DeDrift, a method that updates embedding quantizers to continuously adapt large-scale indexing structures on-the-fly. DeDrift almost eliminates the accuracy degradation due to the query and database content drift while being up to 100x faster than a full index reconstruction.

The prior drift is crucial in Continual Test-Time Adaptation (CTTA) methods that only use unlabeled test data, as it can cause significant error propagation. In this paper, we introduce VCoTTA, a variational Bayesian approach to measure uncertainties in CTTA. At the source stage, we transform a pre-trained deterministic model into a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) via a variational warm-up strategy, injecting uncertainties into the model. During the testing time, we employ a mean-teacher update strategy using variational inference for the student model and exponential moving average for the teacher model. Our novel approach updates the student model by combining priors from both the source and teacher models. The evidence lower bound is formulated as the cross-entropy between the student and teacher models, along with the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence of the prior mixture. Experimental results on three datasets demonstrate the method's effectiveness in mitigating prior drift within the CTTA framework.

Time-dependent data-generating distributions have proven to be difficult for gradient-based training of neural networks, as the greedy updates result in catastrophic forgetting of previously learned knowledge. Despite the progress in the field of continual learning to overcome this forgetting, we show that a set of common state-of-the-art methods still suffers from substantial forgetting upon starting to learn new tasks, except that this forgetting is temporary and followed by a phase of performance recovery. We refer to this intriguing but potentially problematic phenomenon as the stability gap. The stability gap had likely remained under the radar due to standard practice in the field of evaluating continual learning models only after each task. Instead, we establish a framework for continual evaluation that uses per-iteration evaluation and we define a new set of metrics to quantify worst-case performance. Empirically we show that experience replay, constraint-based replay, knowledge-distillation, and parameter regularization methods are all prone to the stability gap; and that the stability gap can be observed in class-, task-, and domain-incremental learning benchmarks. Additionally, a controlled experiment shows that the stability gap increases when tasks are more dissimilar. Finally, by disentangling gradients into plasticity and stability components, we propose a conceptual explanation for the stability gap.

Modern instruction-tuned large language models (LLMs) have made remarkable progress in code generation. However, these LLMs fine-tuned with standard supervised fine-tuning (SFT) sometimes generate plausible-looking but functionally incorrect code variants. This issue likely stems from the limitation of standard SFT, which treats all tokens equally during optimization and fails to emphasize the error-sensitive segments-specific code differences between correct implementations and similar incorrect variants. To address this problem, we propose Fault-Aware Fine-Tuning (FAIT), a novel fine-tuning technique that enhances LLMs' code generation by (1) extracting multi-granularity (line/token-level) differences between correct and incorrect yet similar implementations to identify error-sensitive segments, and (2) dynamically prioritizing those segments during training via dynamic loss weighting. Through extensive experiments on seven LLMs across three widely-used benchmarks, our method achieves an average relative improvement of 6.9% on pass@1 with just one epoch of training, with some enhanced 6.7B LLMs outperforming closed-source models, e.g., GPT-3.5-Turbo. Furthermore, our fine-tuning technique demonstrates strong generalization with performance improvements ranging from 3.8% to 19.1% across diverse instruction-tuned LLMs, and our ablation studies confirm the contributions of different granularities of differences and loss function components.

Test-time adaptation (TTA) methods, which generally rely on the model's predictions (e.g., entropy minimization) to adapt the source pretrained model to the unlabeled target domain, suffer from noisy signals originating from 1) incorrect or 2) open-set predictions. Long-term stable adaptation is hampered by such noisy signals, so training models without such error accumulation is crucial for practical TTA. To address these issues, including open-set TTA, we propose a simple yet effective sample selection method inspired by the following crucial empirical finding. While entropy minimization compels the model to increase the probability of its predicted label (i.e., confidence values), we found that noisy samples rather show decreased confidence values. To be more specific, entropy minimization attempts to raise the confidence values of an individual sample's prediction, but individual confidence values may rise or fall due to the influence of signals from numerous other predictions (i.e., wisdom of crowds). Due to this fact, noisy signals misaligned with such 'wisdom of crowds', generally found in the correct signals, fail to raise the individual confidence values of wrong samples, despite attempts to increase them. Based on such findings, we filter out the samples whose confidence values are lower in the adapted model than in the original model, as they are likely to be noisy. Our method is widely applicable to existing TTA methods and improves their long-term adaptation performance in both image classification (e.g., 49.4% reduced error rates with TENT) and semantic segmentation (e.g., 11.7% gain in mIoU with TENT).

Modern deep neural networks can achieve high accuracy when the training distribution and test distribution are identically distributed, but this assumption is frequently violated in practice. When the train and test distributions are mismatched, accuracy can plummet. Currently there are few techniques that improve robustness to unforeseen data shifts encountered during deployment. In this work, we propose a technique to improve the robustness and uncertainty estimates of image classifiers. We propose AugMix, a data processing technique that is simple to implement, adds limited computational overhead, and helps models withstand unforeseen corruptions. AugMix significantly improves robustness and uncertainty measures on challenging image classification benchmarks, closing the gap between previous methods and the best possible performance in some cases by more than half.

In this paper, we introduce a novel predict-and-optimize method for profit-driven churn prevention. We frame the task of targeting customers for a retention campaign as a regret minimization problem. The main objective is to leverage individual customer lifetime values (CLVs) to ensure that only the most valuable customers are targeted. In contrast, many profit-driven strategies focus on churn probabilities while considering average CLVs. This often results in significant information loss due to data aggregation. Our proposed model aligns with the guidelines of Predict-and-Optimize (PnO) frameworks and can be efficiently solved using stochastic gradient descent methods. Results from 12 churn prediction datasets underscore the effectiveness of our approach, which achieves the best average performance compared to other well-established strategies in terms of average profit.

Real-world data often exhibit extreme imbalances and out-of-distribution (OOD) instances, which significantly biases the model training. While it has been extensively studied in vision and language domains separately, the impact of long-tailed open worlds on multi-modal large language models (MLLMs) has been largely overlooked. In this paper, we first demonstrate the susceptibility and vulnerability of vision-language models to significant biases caused by tail drift and out-of-distribution (OOD) drift during both the pre-training and fine-tuning stages. To eliminate the bias from different sources, we integrate the tailed drift adaptation and OOD drift detection into a unified framework by extending the concept drift theory to multi-modal. Specifically, a T-distribution-based drift adapter is proposed to effectively mitigate the bias induced by the long-tailed problem, which also facilitates the model in distinguishing OOD data through explicit distribution modelling. Extensive experiments show significant improvements in our model's ability to adapt to tailed drift and OOD drift. Moreover, it enhances the efficiency and accuracy of image-text alignment in vision language model pre-training, particularly in the long-tail open world scenario. Furthermore, we create a set of multi-modal datasets called OpenMMlo, specifically tailored for the long-tailed open world scenario, to validate our findings. To foster the development of the multi-modal community, we have made both OpenMMlo datasets and our code publicly available at: https://github.com/Anonymous0Knight/ConceptDriftMLLMs.