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SubscribeLeave-one-out Distinguishability in Machine Learning
We introduce a new analytical framework to quantify the changes in a machine learning algorithm's output distribution following the inclusion of a few data points in its training set, a notion we define as leave-one-out distinguishability (LOOD). This problem is key to measuring data **memorization** and **information leakage** in machine learning, and the **influence** of training data points on model predictions. We illustrate how our method broadens and refines existing empirical measures of memorization and privacy risks associated with training data. We use Gaussian processes to model the randomness of machine learning algorithms, and validate LOOD with extensive empirical analysis of information leakage using membership inference attacks. Our theoretical framework enables us to investigate the causes of information leakage and where the leakage is high. For example, we analyze the influence of activation functions, on data memorization. Additionally, our method allows us to optimize queries that disclose the most significant information about the training data in the leave-one-out setting. We illustrate how optimal queries can be used for accurate **reconstruction** of training data.
Integrating Large Language Models into a Tri-Modal Architecture for Automated Depression Classification
Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) is a pervasive mental health condition that affects 300 million people worldwide. This work presents a novel, BiLSTM-based tri-modal model-level fusion architecture for the binary classification of depression from clinical interview recordings. The proposed architecture incorporates Mel Frequency Cepstral Coefficients, Facial Action Units, and uses a two-shot learning based GPT-4 model to process text data. This is the first work to incorporate large language models into a multi-modal architecture for this task. It achieves impressive results on the DAIC-WOZ AVEC 2016 Challenge cross-validation split and Leave-One-Subject-Out cross-validation split, surpassing all baseline models and multiple state-of-the-art models. In Leave-One-Subject-Out testing, it achieves an accuracy of 91.01%, an F1-Score of 85.95%, a precision of 80%, and a recall of 92.86%.
Rethinking the Evaluation of Video Summaries
Video summarization is a technique to create a short skim of the original video while preserving the main stories/content. There exists a substantial interest in automatizing this process due to the rapid growth of the available material. The recent progress has been facilitated by public benchmark datasets, which enable easy and fair comparison of methods. Currently the established evaluation protocol is to compare the generated summary with respect to a set of reference summaries provided by the dataset. In this paper, we will provide in-depth assessment of this pipeline using two popular benchmark datasets. Surprisingly, we observe that randomly generated summaries achieve comparable or better performance to the state-of-the-art. In some cases, the random summaries outperform even the human generated summaries in leave-one-out experiments. Moreover, it turns out that the video segmentation, which is often considered as a fixed pre-processing method, has the most significant impact on the performance measure. Based on our observations, we propose alternative approaches for assessing the importance scores as well as an intuitive visualization of correlation between the estimated scoring and human annotations.
CLOOB: Modern Hopfield Networks with InfoLOOB Outperform CLIP
CLIP yielded impressive results on zero-shot transfer learning tasks and is considered as a foundation model like BERT or GPT3. CLIP vision models that have a rich representation are pre-trained using the InfoNCE objective and natural language supervision before they are fine-tuned on particular tasks. Though CLIP excels at zero-shot transfer learning, it suffers from an explaining away problem, that is, it focuses on one or few features, while neglecting other relevant features. This problem is caused by insufficiently extracting the covariance structure in the original multi-modal data. We suggest to use modern Hopfield networks to tackle the problem of explaining away. Their retrieved embeddings have an enriched covariance structure derived from co-occurrences of features in the stored embeddings. However, modern Hopfield networks increase the saturation effect of the InfoNCE objective which hampers learning. We propose to use the InfoLOOB objective to mitigate this saturation effect. We introduce the novel "Contrastive Leave One Out Boost" (CLOOB), which uses modern Hopfield networks for covariance enrichment together with the InfoLOOB objective. In experiments we compare CLOOB to CLIP after pre-training on the Conceptual Captions and the YFCC dataset with respect to their zero-shot transfer learning performance on other datasets. CLOOB consistently outperforms CLIP at zero-shot transfer learning across all considered architectures and datasets.
Adapting and Evaluating Influence-Estimation Methods for Gradient-Boosted Decision Trees
Influence estimation analyzes how changes to the training data can lead to different model predictions; this analysis can help us better understand these predictions, the models making those predictions, and the data sets they're trained on. However, most influence-estimation techniques are designed for deep learning models with continuous parameters. Gradient-boosted decision trees (GBDTs) are a powerful and widely-used class of models; however, these models are black boxes with opaque decision-making processes. In the pursuit of better understanding GBDT predictions and generally improving these models, we adapt recent and popular influence-estimation methods designed for deep learning models to GBDTs. Specifically, we adapt representer-point methods and TracIn, denoting our new methods TREX and BoostIn, respectively; source code is available at https://github.com/jjbrophy47/tree_influence. We compare these methods to LeafInfluence and other baselines using 5 different evaluation measures on 22 real-world data sets with 4 popular GBDT implementations. These experiments give us a comprehensive overview of how different approaches to influence estimation work in GBDT models. We find BoostIn is an efficient influence-estimation method for GBDTs that performs equally well or better than existing work while being four orders of magnitude faster. Our evaluation also suggests the gold-standard approach of leave-one-out (LOO) retraining consistently identifies the single-most influential training example but performs poorly at finding the most influential set of training examples for a given target prediction.
RP-DNN: A Tweet level propagation context based deep neural networks for early rumor detection in Social Media
Early rumor detection (ERD) on social media platform is very challenging when limited, incomplete and noisy information is available. Most of the existing methods have largely worked on event-level detection that requires the collection of posts relevant to a specific event and relied only on user-generated content. They are not appropriate to detect rumor sources in the very early stages, before an event unfolds and becomes widespread. In this paper, we address the task of ERD at the message level. We present a novel hybrid neural network architecture, which combines a task-specific character-based bidirectional language model and stacked Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to represent textual contents and social-temporal contexts of input source tweets, for modelling propagation patterns of rumors in the early stages of their development. We apply multi-layered attention models to jointly learn attentive context embeddings over multiple context inputs. Our experiments employ a stringent leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) evaluation setup on seven publicly available real-life rumor event data sets. Our models achieve state-of-the-art(SoA) performance for detecting unseen rumors on large augmented data which covers more than 12 events and 2,967 rumors. An ablation study is conducted to understand the relative contribution of each component of our proposed model.
Putting the Value Back in RL: Better Test-Time Scaling by Unifying LLM Reasoners With Verifiers
Prevalent reinforcement learning~(RL) methods for fine-tuning LLM reasoners, such as GRPO or Leave-one-out PPO, abandon the learned value function in favor of empirically estimated returns. This hinders test-time compute scaling that relies on using the value-function for verification. In this work, we propose RL^V that augments any ``value-free'' RL method by jointly training the LLM as both a reasoner and a generative verifier using RL-generated data, adding verification capabilities without significant overhead. Empirically, RL^V boosts MATH accuracy by over 20\% with parallel sampling and enables 8-32times efficient test-time compute scaling compared to the base RL method. RL^V also exhibits strong generalization capabilities for both easy-to-hard and out-of-domain tasks. Furthermore, RL^V achieves 1.2-1.6times higher performance when jointly scaling parallel and sequential test-time compute with a long reasoning R1 model.
Model Evaluation, Model Selection, and Algorithm Selection in Machine Learning
The correct use of model evaluation, model selection, and algorithm selection techniques is vital in academic machine learning research as well as in many industrial settings. This article reviews different techniques that can be used for each of these three subtasks and discusses the main advantages and disadvantages of each technique with references to theoretical and empirical studies. Further, recommendations are given to encourage best yet feasible practices in research and applications of machine learning. Common methods such as the holdout method for model evaluation and selection are covered, which are not recommended when working with small datasets. Different flavors of the bootstrap technique are introduced for estimating the uncertainty of performance estimates, as an alternative to confidence intervals via normal approximation if bootstrapping is computationally feasible. Common cross-validation techniques such as leave-one-out cross-validation and k-fold cross-validation are reviewed, the bias-variance trade-off for choosing k is discussed, and practical tips for the optimal choice of k are given based on empirical evidence. Different statistical tests for algorithm comparisons are presented, and strategies for dealing with multiple comparisons such as omnibus tests and multiple-comparison corrections are discussed. Finally, alternative methods for algorithm selection, such as the combined F-test 5x2 cross-validation and nested cross-validation, are recommended for comparing machine learning algorithms when datasets are small.
Enhancing Suicide Risk Assessment: A Speech-Based Automated Approach in Emergency Medicine
The delayed access to specialized psychiatric assessments and care for patients at risk of suicidal tendencies in emergency departments creates a notable gap in timely intervention, hindering the provision of adequate mental health support during critical situations. To address this, we present a non-invasive, speech-based approach for automatic suicide risk assessment. For our study, we have collected a novel dataset of speech recordings from 20 patients from which we extract three sets of features, including wav2vec, interpretable speech and acoustic features, and deep learning-based spectral representations. We proceed by conducting a binary classification to assess suicide risk in a leave-one-subject-out fashion. Our most effective speech model achieves a balanced accuracy of 66.2,%. Moreover, we show that integrating our speech model with a series of patients' metadata, such as the history of suicide attempts or access to firearms, improves the overall result. The metadata integration yields a balanced accuracy of 94.4,%, marking an absolute improvement of 28.2,%, demonstrating the efficacy of our proposed approaches for automatic suicide risk assessment in emergency medicine.
Interactive Post-Training for Vision-Language-Action Models
We introduce RIPT-VLA, a simple and scalable reinforcement-learning-based interactive post-training paradigm that fine-tunes pretrained Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models using only sparse binary success rewards. Existing VLA training pipelines rely heavily on offline expert demonstration data and supervised imitation, limiting their ability to adapt to new tasks and environments under low-data regimes. RIPT-VLA addresses this by enabling interactive post-training with a stable policy optimization algorithm based on dynamic rollout sampling and leave-one-out advantage estimation. RIPT-VLA has the following characteristics. First, it applies to various VLA models, resulting in an improvement on the lightweight QueST model by 21.2%, and the 7B OpenVLA-OFT model to an unprecedented 97.5% success rate. Second, it is computationally efficient and data-efficient: with only one demonstration, RIPT-VLA enables an unworkable SFT model (4%) to succeed with a 97% success rate within 15 iterations. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the policy learned by RIPT-VLA generalizes across different tasks and scenarios and is robust to the initial state context. These results highlight RIPT-VLA as a practical and effective paradigm for post-training VLA models through minimal supervision.
EEG-based Cross-Subject Driver Drowsiness Recognition with an Interpretable Convolutional Neural Network
In the context of electroencephalogram (EEG)-based driver drowsiness recognition, it is still challenging to design a calibration-free system, since EEG signals vary significantly among different subjects and recording sessions. Many efforts have been made to use deep learning methods for mental state recognition from EEG signals. However, existing work mostly treats deep learning models as black-box classifiers, while what have been learned by the models and to which extent they are affected by the noise in EEG data are still underexplored. In this paper, we develop a novel convolutional neural network combined with an interpretation technique that allows sample-wise analysis of important features for classification. The network has a compact structure and takes advantage of separable convolutions to process the EEG signals in a spatial-temporal sequence. Results show that the model achieves an average accuracy of 78.35% on 11 subjects for leave-one-out cross-subject drowsiness recognition, which is higher than the conventional baseline methods of 53.40%-72.68% and state-of-the-art deep learning methods of 71.75%-75.19%. Interpretation results indicate the model has learned to recognize biologically meaningful features from EEG signals, e.g., Alpha spindles, as strong indicators of drowsiness across different subjects. In addition, we also explore reasons behind some wrongly classified samples with the interpretation technique and discuss potential ways to improve the recognition accuracy. Our work illustrates a promising direction on using interpretable deep learning models to discover meaningful patterns related to different mental states from complex EEG signals.
Uncertainty quantification for improving radiomic-based models in radiation pneumonitis prediction
Background and Objective: Radiation pneumonitis (RP) is a side effect of thoracic radiation therapy. Recently, Machine learning (ML) models enhanced with radiomic and dosiomic features provide better predictions by incorporating spatial information beyond DVHs. However, to improve the clinical decision process, we propose to use uncertainty quantification (UQ) to improve the confidence in model prediction. This study evaluates the impact of post hoc UQ methods on the discriminative performance and calibration of ML models for RP prediction. Methods: This study evaluated four ML models: logistic regression (LR), support vector machines (SVM), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), and random forest (RF), using radiomic, dosiomic, and dosimetric features to predict RP. We applied UQ methods, including Patt scaling, isotonic regression, Venn-ABERS predictor, and Conformal Prediction, to quantify uncertainty. Model performance was assessed through Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUROC), Area Under the Precision-Recall Curve (AUPRC), and Adaptive Calibration Error (ACE) using Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation (LOO-CV). Results: UQ methods enhanced predictive performance, particularly for high-certainty predictions, while also improving calibration. Radiomic and dosiomic features increased model accuracy but introduced calibration challenges, especially for non-linear models like XGB and RF. Performance gains from UQ methods were most noticeable at higher certainty thresholds. Conclusion: Integrating UQ into ML models with radiomic and dosiomic features improves both predictive accuracy and calibration, supporting more reliable clinical decision-making. The findings emphasize the value of UQ methods in enhancing applicability of predictive models for RP in healthcare settings.
UniGaze: Towards Universal Gaze Estimation via Large-scale Pre-Training
Despite decades of research on data collection and model architectures, current gaze estimation models encounter significant challenges in generalizing across diverse data domains. Recent advances in self-supervised pre-training have shown remarkable performances in generalization across various vision tasks. However, their effectiveness in gaze estimation remains unexplored. We propose UniGaze, for the first time, leveraging large-scale in-the-wild facial datasets for gaze estimation through self-supervised pre-training. Through systematic investigation, we clarify critical factors that are essential for effective pretraining in gaze estimation. Our experiments reveal that self-supervised approaches designed for semantic tasks fail when applied to gaze estimation, while our carefully designed pre-training pipeline consistently improves cross-domain performance. Through comprehensive experiments of challenging cross-dataset evaluation and novel protocols including leave-one-dataset-out and joint-dataset settings, we demonstrate that UniGaze significantly improves generalization across multiple data domains while minimizing reliance on costly labeled data. source code and model are available at https://github.com/ut-vision/UniGaze.
OpenECG: Benchmarking ECG Foundation Models with Public 1.2 Million Records
This study introduces OpenECG, a large-scale benchmark of 1.2 million 12-lead ECG recordings from nine centers, to evaluate ECG foundation models (ECG-FMs) trained on public datasets. We investigate three self-supervised learning methods (SimCLR, BYOL, MAE) with ResNet-50 and Vision Transformer architectures, assessing model generalization through leave-one-dataset-out experiments and data scaling analysis. Results show that pre-training on diverse datasets significantly improves generalization, with BYOL and MAE outperforming SimCLR, highlighting the efficacy of feature-consistency and generative learning over contrastive approaches. Data scaling experiments reveal that performance saturates at 60-70% of total data for BYOL and MAE, while SimCLR requires more data. These findings demonstrate that publicly available ECG data can match or surpass proprietary datasets in training robust ECG-FMs, paving the way for scalable, clinically meaningful AI-driven ECG analysis.
Data Shapley: Equitable Valuation of Data for Machine Learning
As data becomes the fuel driving technological and economic growth, a fundamental challenge is how to quantify the value of data in algorithmic predictions and decisions. For example, in healthcare and consumer markets, it has been suggested that individuals should be compensated for the data that they generate, but it is not clear what is an equitable valuation for individual data. In this work, we develop a principled framework to address data valuation in the context of supervised machine learning. Given a learning algorithm trained on n data points to produce a predictor, we propose data Shapley as a metric to quantify the value of each training datum to the predictor performance. Data Shapley value uniquely satisfies several natural properties of equitable data valuation. We develop Monte Carlo and gradient-based methods to efficiently estimate data Shapley values in practical settings where complex learning algorithms, including neural networks, are trained on large datasets. In addition to being equitable, extensive experiments across biomedical, image and synthetic data demonstrate that data Shapley has several other benefits: 1) it is more powerful than the popular leave-one-out or leverage score in providing insight on what data is more valuable for a given learning task; 2) low Shapley value data effectively capture outliers and corruptions; 3) high Shapley value data inform what type of new data to acquire to improve the predictor.
Double Trouble: How to not explain a text classifier's decisions using counterfactuals synthesized by masked language models?
A principle behind dozens of attribution methods is to take the prediction difference between before-and-after an input feature (here, a token) is removed as its attribution. A popular Input Marginalization (IM) method (Kim et al., 2020) uses BERT to replace a token, yielding more plausible counterfactuals. While Kim et al. (2020) reported that IM is effective, we find this conclusion not convincing as the DeletionBERT metric used in their paper is biased towards IM. Importantly, this bias exists in Deletion-based metrics, including Insertion, Sufficiency, and Comprehensiveness. Furthermore, our rigorous evaluation using 6 metrics and 3 datasets finds no evidence that IM is better than a Leave-One-Out (LOO) baseline. We find two reasons why IM is not better than LOO: (1) deleting a single word from the input only marginally reduces a classifier's accuracy; and (2) a highly predictable word is always given near-zero attribution, regardless of its true importance to the classifier. In contrast, making LIME samples more natural via BERT consistently improves LIME accuracy under several ROAR metrics.
Un-Attributability: Computing Novelty From Retrieval & Semantic Similarity
Understanding how language-model outputs relate to the pretraining corpus is central to studying model behavior. Most training data attribution (TDA) methods ask which training examples causally influence a given output, often using leave-one-out tests. We invert the question: which outputs cannot be attributed to any pretraining example? We introduce un-attributability as an operational measure of semantic novelty: an output is novel if the pretraining corpus contains no semantically similar context. We approximate this with a simple two-stage retrieval pipeline: index the corpus with lightweight GIST embeddings, retrieve the top-n candidates, then rerank with ColBERTv2. If the nearest corpus item is less attributable than a human-generated text reference, we consider the output of the model as novel. We evaluate on SmolLM and SmolLM2 and report three findings: (1) models draw on pretraining data across much longer spans than previously reported; (2) some domains systematically promote or suppress novelty; and (3) instruction tuning not only alters style but also increases novelty. Reframing novelty assessment around un-attributability enables efficient analysis at pretraining scale. We release ~20 TB of corpus chunks and index artifacts to support replication and large-scale extension of our analysis at https://huggingface.co/datasets/stai-tuebingen/faiss-smollm
CARE-PD: A Multi-Site Anonymized Clinical Dataset for Parkinson's Disease Gait Assessment
Objective gait assessment in Parkinson's Disease (PD) is limited by the absence of large, diverse, and clinically annotated motion datasets. We introduce CARE-PD, the largest publicly available archive of 3D mesh gait data for PD, and the first multi-site collection spanning 9 cohorts from 8 clinical centers. All recordings (RGB video or motion capture) are converted into anonymized SMPL meshes via a harmonized preprocessing pipeline. CARE-PD supports two key benchmarks: supervised clinical score prediction (estimating Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale, UPDRS, gait scores) and unsupervised motion pretext tasks (2D-to-3D keypoint lifting and full-body 3D reconstruction). Clinical prediction is evaluated under four generalization protocols: within-dataset, cross-dataset, leave-one-dataset-out, and multi-dataset in-domain adaptation. To assess clinical relevance, we compare state-of-the-art motion encoders with a traditional gait-feature baseline, finding that encoders consistently outperform handcrafted features. Pretraining on CARE-PD reduces MPJPE (from 60.8mm to 7.5mm) and boosts PD severity macro-F1 by 17 percentage points, underscoring the value of clinically curated, diverse training data. CARE-PD and all benchmark code are released for non-commercial research at https://neurips2025.care-pd.ca/.
Show, Don't Tell: Demonstrations Outperform Descriptions for Schema-Guided Task-Oriented Dialogue
Building universal dialogue systems that operate across multiple domains/APIs and generalize to new ones with minimal overhead is a critical challenge. Recent works have leveraged natural language descriptions of schema elements to enable such systems; however, descriptions only indirectly convey schema semantics. In this work, we propose Show, Don't Tell, which prompts seq2seq models with a labeled example dialogue to show the semantics of schema elements rather than tell the model through descriptions. While requiring similar effort from service developers as generating descriptions, we show that using short examples as schema representations with large language models results in state-of-the-art performance on two popular dialogue state tracking benchmarks designed to measure zero-shot generalization - the Schema-Guided Dialogue dataset and the MultiWOZ leave-one-out benchmark.
Reliable and Energy Efficient MLC STT-RAM Buffer for CNN Accelerators
We propose a lightweight scheme where the formation of a data block is changed in such a way that it can tolerate soft errors significantly better than the baseline. The key insight behind our work is that CNN weights are normalized between -1 and 1 after each convolutional layer, and this leaves one bit unused in half-precision floating-point representation. By taking advantage of the unused bit, we create a backup for the most significant bit to protect it against the soft errors. Also, considering the fact that in MLC STT-RAMs the cost of memory operations (read and write), and reliability of a cell are content-dependent (some patterns take larger current and longer time, while they are more susceptible to soft error), we rearrange the data block to minimize the number of costly bit patterns. Combining these two techniques provides the same level of accuracy compared to an error-free baseline while improving the read and write energy by 9% and 6%, respectively.
Cosmology with one galaxy?
Galaxies can be characterized by many internal properties such as stellar mass, gas metallicity, and star-formation rate. We quantify the amount of cosmological and astrophysical information that the internal properties of individual galaxies and their host dark matter halos contain. We train neural networks using hundreds of thousands of galaxies from 2,000 state-of-the-art hydrodynamic simulations with different cosmologies and astrophysical models of the CAMELS project to perform likelihood-free inference on the value of the cosmological and astrophysical parameters. We find that knowing the internal properties of a single galaxy allow our models to infer the value of Omega_{rm m}, at fixed Omega_{rm b}, with a sim10% precision, while no constraint can be placed on sigma_8. Our results hold for any type of galaxy, central or satellite, massive or dwarf, at all considered redshifts, zleq3, and they incorporate uncertainties in astrophysics as modeled in CAMELS. However, our models are not robust to changes in subgrid physics due to the large intrinsic differences the two considered models imprint on galaxy properties. We find that the stellar mass, stellar metallicity, and maximum circular velocity are among the most important galaxy properties to determine the value of Omega_{rm m}. We believe that our results can be explained taking into account that changes in the value of Omega_{rm m}, or potentially Omega_{rm b}/Omega_{rm m}, affect the dark matter content of galaxies. That effect leaves a distinct signature in galaxy properties to the one induced by galactic processes. Our results suggest that the low-dimensional manifold hosting galaxy properties provides a tight direct link between cosmology and astrophysics.
Stock Volatility Prediction Based on Transformer Model Using Mixed-Frequency Data
With the increasing volume of high-frequency data in the information age, both challenges and opportunities arise in the prediction of stock volatility. On one hand, the outcome of prediction using tradition method combining stock technical and macroeconomic indicators still leaves room for improvement; on the other hand, macroeconomic indicators and peoples' search record on those search engines affecting their interested topics will intuitively have an impact on the stock volatility. For the convenience of assessment of the influence of these indicators, macroeconomic indicators and stock technical indicators are then grouped into objective factors, while Baidu search indices implying people's interested topics are defined as subjective factors. To align different frequency data, we introduce GARCH-MIDAS model. After mixing all the above data, we then feed them into Transformer model as part of the training data. Our experiments show that this model outperforms the baselines in terms of mean square error. The adaption of both types of data under Transformer model significantly reduces the mean square error from 1.00 to 0.86.
