Update app.py

app.py

@@ -382,52 +382,111 @@ if run:
 
         prog.progress(85, text="Computing interpretation...")
 
-        # Dynamic Interpretation (same logic as raw)
+        # Dynamic Interpretation (richer, more explanatory)
         try:
             phase_series    = pd.Series(phase, index=comp.index)
             current_date    = phase_series.index[-1]
             current_phase   = phase_series.iloc[-1]
             current_comp    = comp_sm.loc[current_date]
+            current_comp_raw = comp.loc[current_date]
             current_slope   = slope.loc[current_date]
             current_spx_yoy = spx_yoy.loc[current_date]
 
-            interp = ""
+            # Percentiles (rank-based, full sample)
+            comp_pct = float(comp_sm.dropna().rank(pct=True).loc[current_date] * 100)
+            spx_pct  = float(spx_yoy.dropna().rank(pct=True).loc[current_date] * 100)
+
+            # Phase run length (periods and months)
+            changes = phase_series.ne(phase_series.shift())
+            last_change_idx = changes[changes].index[-1]
+            periods_in_phase = phase_series.index.get_loc(current_date) - phase_series.index.get_loc(last_change_idx) + 1
+            if freq == "QE":
+                months_in_phase = periods_in_phase * 3
+                period_label = "quarters"
+            else:
+                months_in_phase = periods_in_phase
+                period_label = "months"
+
+            # Breadth and contributors
+            z_now = z.loc[current_date].dropna()
+            inputs_now = z_now.reindex(inputs).dropna()
+            breadth_pos = float((inputs_now > 0).mean() * 100)
+            top_pos = inputs_now.sort_values(ascending=False).head(3)
+            top_neg = inputs_now.sort_values(ascending=True).head(3)
+
+            def fmt_contrib(s):
+                return ", ".join([f"{k} ({v:+.1f}σ)" for k, v in s.items()]) if len(s) else "n/a"
+
+            # Phase-specific read-through and triggers
+            phase_notes = []
+            triggers = []
+
             if current_phase == 'Early':
-                interp = (
-                    f"As of {current_date.date()}, the composite is {current_comp:.2f} "
-                    f"(+{current_slope:.3f} over {int(slope_window)}m) and S&P YoY is {current_spx_yoy:.1f}%. "
-                    "Early-phase conditions indicate nascent expansion. "
-                    "Leading activity indicators have bottomed and credit spreads are narrowing. "
-                    "Selective exposure to cyclical sectors may capture emerging growth while risks remain contained."
-                )
+                phase_notes += [
+                    "Growth is turning up from a weak base.",
+                    "Leading activity improves. Credit spreads narrow.",
+                    "Rate momentum eases on a 12-month view."
+                ]
+                triggers += [
+                    f"Upside: composite raw > {comp_thr:.2f}.",
+                    f"Risk: slope < -{slope_thr:.3f} or composite raw > {-comp_thr:.2f}."
+                ]
             elif current_phase == 'Mid-Late':
-                interp = (
-                    f"As of {current_date.date()}, the composite stands at {current_comp:.2f} "
-                    f"(slope {current_slope:.3f}) with S&P YoY {current_spx_yoy:.1f}%. "
-                    "Mid-to-late cycle signals peak growth. "
-                    "Inflationary pressures and monetary tightening typically intensify in this phase. "
-                    "Shift allocation toward high-quality equities and defensive sectors to protect gains."
-                )
+                phase_notes += [
+                    "Growth remains above average but is slowing.",
+                    "Pricing pressure and policy tightness rise.",
+                    "Quality bias tends to help risk control."
+                ]
+                triggers += [
+                    f"Loss of momentum: composite raw < {comp_thr:.2f}.",
+                    f"Downside break: composite raw < {-comp_thr:.2f}."
+                ]
             elif current_phase == 'Decline':
-                interp = (
-                    f"As of {current_date.date()}, the composite reads {current_comp:.2f} "
-                    f"(slope {current_slope:.3f}) and S&P YoY is {current_spx_yoy:.1f}%. "
-                    "Decline-phase patterns signal contraction. "
-                    "Risk sentiment deteriorates and liquidity tightens. "
-                    "Consider de-risking portfolios: increase fixed income, cash buffers, and low-volatility assets."
-                )
+                phase_notes += [
+                    "Activity contracts. Risk appetite weakens.",
+                    "Credit and liquidity conditions worsen.",
+                    "Drawdown risk is elevated relative to trend."
+                ]
+                triggers += [
+                    f"Repair: slope > +{slope_thr:.3f}.",
+                    f"Exit contraction: composite raw > {-comp_thr:.2f}."
+                ]
             elif current_phase == 'Uncertain':
-                interp = (
-                    f"As of {current_date.date()}, the composite is neutral at {current_comp:.2f} "
-                    f"(slope {current_slope:.3f}) with S&P YoY {current_spx_yoy:.1f}%. "
-                    "Signals conflict and volatility often rises. "
-                    "Maintain balanced allocations, await clearer directional cues, and manage risk with disciplined stops."
-                )
+                phase_notes += [
+                    "Signals conflict. Noise is high.",
+                    "Avoid strong tilts until direction clears.",
+                    "Use position sizing and stops."
+                ]
+                triggers += [
+                    f"Upside regime: composite raw > {comp_thr:.2f}.",
+                    f"Early setup: composite raw < {-comp_thr:.2f} and slope > +{slope_thr:.3f}.",
+                    f"Decline setup: composite raw < {-comp_thr:.2f} and slope < -{slope_thr:.3f}."
+                ]
             else:
-                interp = "Phase classification unavailable."
+                phase_notes.append("Phase classification unavailable.")
+
+            # Build markdown
+            interp_md = f"""
+**As of {current_date.date()}**
+
+- Phase: **{current_phase}** for {periods_in_phase} {period_label} (~{months_in_phase} months).
+- Composite (smoothed): {current_comp:.2f} (p{comp_pct:.0f}). Raw: {current_comp_raw:.2f}.
+- Slope over {int(slope_window)}m: {current_slope:+.3f}.
+- S&P 500 YoY: {current_spx_yoy:.1f}% (p{spx_pct:.0f}).
+- Breadth: {breadth_pos:.0f}% of inputs > 0.
+
+**What drives the score now**
+- Positive: {fmt_contrib(top_pos)}
+- Negative: {fmt_contrib(top_neg)}
+
+**Phase read-through**
+""" + "\n".join([f"- {line}" for line in phase_notes]) + """
+
+**Triggers to watch**
+""" + "\n".join([f"- {t}" for t in triggers])
 
             with st.expander("Dynamic Interpretation", expanded=False):
-                st.write(interp)
+                st.markdown(interp_md)
         except Exception:
             st.error("Failed to produce the interpretation.")