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This is the $BABA stock year-to-date performance
+10.06%
Ok but not great
At some point we were up +54%
Here is why I'm holding my shares in 2025 👇
#1/25 🧵 https://t.co/caaWsQ9Q0R
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Apple now trades at a higher Forward P/E than NVIDIA.
Forward P/E:
Apple: 34.3X
NVIDIA: 34.1X
$AAPL $NVDA https://t.co/DznLn15NSs
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Apple does it again, another all-time high 📈 $AAPL is now just $150 Billion away from becoming the first company to ever reach a market cap of $4 Trillion https://t.co/lDknxtLZjv
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Power On: Apple is considering taking on Ring and Nest, and is developing a smart doorbell with Face ID that can unlock your door like Face ID unlocks your iPhone. https://t.co/IBUAtqWdZU
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I’M HIS, HE’S MINE Spotify Updates
12/17 — +201.024 📈
12/18 — +202.873 📈
12/19 — +206.975 📈
12/20 — +265.375 📈📈📈
12/21 — +241.617 *Saturday Effect
🚨BEST SATURDAY SINCE OCTOBER, OHHH WE ARE SO BACK!!! SMASH!!!🚨
Total: 26.301.512 💟
https://t.co/TNXS5OlPbQ
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Nifty
A major H&S top is in place for the index now. https://t.co/hbgf52Pybc
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Apple is developing a doorbell that would let you into your house using Face ID.
Would you use this? https://t.co/665TFKdNi7
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Apple Reportedly Working on AirPods Pro 3 With Heart Rate Feature https://t.co/UjJ2s7Gi9f https://t.co/xg6k21uGr9
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Keep streaming on Apple Music, Germany 🇩🇪 🙏 it’s all counted towards Billboard https://t.co/ZVfFRTC8Xq
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we got a haerin iphone 16 ad photo finally https://t.co/sdQPKluSyk
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🇺🇸U.S. ECONOMIC DATA THIS WEEK:
• CONSUMER CONFIDENCE (MON.)
• DURABLE GOODS ORDERS (TUES.)
• NEW HOME SALES (TUES.)
• CHRISTMAS DAY (WED.)
• JOBLESS CLAIMS (THURS.)
$DIA $SPY $QQQ $VIX
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Apple is exploring a Face ID doorbell and lock for your smart home https://t.co/LUyOKY3jyy
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iOS 19 Rumored to Be Compatible With These iPhones https://t.co/JIUiHBVBsu https://t.co/MUeLOuvYO3
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$AAPL Daily. Putting news to one side, Apple did something technically it hasn't in a while: Tested 50-day m.a. yesterday with a mild fade. But then aggressive rejection, follow-through lower today. https://t.co/4WS8Giaq04
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$AAPL no innovation, no growth. When all your cash goes to dividends and buybacks to pump the stock, others eventually catch up.
Apple is valued at 1.5x $AMZN but is on track to spend 1/3 of Amazon on R&D and 1/10th on capex this year. It was only a matter of time before others closed the gap.
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Apple's current valuation, at 40 times earnings, reflects a company that's seen its growth stagnate and innovation wane, while market share slips to competitors. This suggests $AAPL investors might be in for more disappointment as the market reevaluates the company's true worth.
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$AAPL at weekly IV wall, seeking reversion towards the peak zone.
1m vectors signalling long on tomorrow's C232.5, C235 @ 0.54 & 0.21 -
this would be the third wall-to-peak reversion of the week (are)
risk of MM positive exposure , where price seeks to close 222.30 max fear. https://t.co/jI5R3ESrOi
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Apple Inc. reportó un EPS de $1.64, superando las estimaciones por $0.04. Con un crecimiento de ingresos del 6.1% interanual, la acción se cotiza a $237.87, con un P/E de 39.12. El consenso de analistas sugiere un precio objetivo de $239.85. $AAPL #Inversiones #Bolsa #Analisis #ResultadosFinancieros
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$AAPL Apple (AAPL) with a DanelFin AI Score of 10/10 (Strong Buy) because, it has a probability advantage of +10.82% of beating the market (S&P500) in the next 3 months. So far AAPl is rebounding from Cloud Chart support. More info: https://t.co/qUuvLJOP7E https://t.co/ImlsmMsZxw
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APPLE stock just broke important support. The glory days are over for this firm.
Overpriced phone, overpriced stock, and management too long in the same job, are a bad combination.
Doesn't the competition have prices and features Apple can't compete with?
The chart shows the bearish break of support now.
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$AAPL falls 3,6% as iPhone sales decline by 5% in Q4 after AI features disappoint.
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Apple 9.61 plunge today is very bullish for the stock market
How?
It completes the FOMO/MOMO cycle that shook out most traders who are enraged and suffering losses
Proof?
AAII bulls are near capitulation panic lows..
WOW is bullish
Fusion said, get MI and be up YTD. https://t.co/nktEwUsoZO
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Apple Stock Has Moved Up 4.2% Since iPhone 16 Launched, Analyst Says It Has Another 8% Upside As Manufacturing Cost Decline Bolsters Cupertino's Margins - Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) , Bank of America ( NYSE:BAC )
https://t.co/hycJoKpurv
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New Canalys research reveals smartphone shipments in China dropped 25% YoY for $AAPL, while competitors gained ground. 🌏📱
$AAPL stock is down roughly 3% today and over 10% below its December all-time high. 📉 https://t.co/kPLhgDrtxD
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$AAPL: A Barron’s article on slipping iPhone demand in China is pressuring the stock. Price must hold trend here, or the 200MA could come into play. After trading above the channel into year-end, a break in trend may lead to downside symmetry. Bulls need to defend trend and reclaim the 100MA. Critical spot!
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$AAPL
Multiples only matter in the long term, but option flow on apple is bullish and I think it seems $280-300 this year. I don’t mind it here at $228, but there are better buys in the mag 7 like $NVDA and $META
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This likely explains the steep $AAPL selloff today. The softer than expected Dec CPI print's likely weakened the haven trade.
And of course, the underlying core culprit remains Apple's deteriorating growth, which contradicts the AI upgrade supercycle premium that's been priced in since June. Poor iPhone 16 uptake and entrenched market share loss is now the base case that can't and shouldn't be dismissed.
Remember, management never guided outsized growth for the Sept nor Dec quarter, despite the AI-enabled iPhone 16. The AI upgrade supercycle narrative was a market-curated concept by Apple bulls.
And things will only get uglier later this month when management provides another round of modest guidance, especially given March quarter seasonality weakness. The bulls will be caught on the back foot and act all surprised...but was there really anything to be surprised about?
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$AAPL closing below 230/share support at the lows of the day in the worst one-day declines since August 4th, 2024. Bit ominous for $QQQ $SPY as the most heavily weighted index stock.
I will be away and the Week 4 MDA breakout picks were released early this week at the close today. Energy stocks continue in strong breakout conditions as detailed before: https://t.co/QHQ3Fgrr8Q
Market Gauges still in negative signals at https://t.co/Z4iDFN2MZR
Watch for rotation to value in 2025!
https://t.co/2zXUl6xxT4
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@Mr_Derivatives Apple has no growth. Hasn’t for a while. Just a hefty service business and buybacks. Uncle Warren’s selling should be a signal but many won’t see it. IMHO
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$AAPL Has support near 230-233 level. Upside targets 240, 245. https://t.co/kLDrohB3kM
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Apple Stock ( $AAPL) Incomplete Sequences Forecasting the Path Ahead
https://t.co/F0LdkTQ6L4
#Apple #stockmarket #AAPL #trading #elliottwave
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@SneakDissaDegen $APPLE showing strong uptrend from 0.01 to 0.035. RSI neutral at 50, suggesting room for continuation. Support at 0.03, resistance at 0.04. Bullish setup with 8/10 confidence. Target 0.045 with stops below 0.028. https://t.co/AYfmjvoqeJ
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1/6 $AAPL
Strong uptrend 🚀 with key resistance at $0.60. RSI overbought 📊.
Action: Long
Confidence: 70%
TP: $0.65 (16% Return)
SL: $0.53 (7% Loss)
R/R: 2:1
The primary trend is clearly bullish, with the price moving above the 9-period EMA and within the upper range of the https://t.co/8GkdXDVMRT
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Charlie Munger: "Apple is one of the strongest companies in the world. I judge the strength of the company based on how much the customers love it — and I've got zillions of friends who'd almost part with their right arm before they'd part with their iPhone." https://t.co/uhBmNiIcvB
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I’m reposting how I get to my $TSLA price target of $380, which is a base case that assumes zero standalone Robotaxi or Optimus valuation. If I assume incremental earnings and value for Robotaxi and Optimus I could justify a TSLA “bull case” price target of $435.
My TSLA base case price target of $380 is based on high conviction that TSLA will launch a $25K-$30K hatchback in 2025 1H that extends TSLA TAM into the global compact category (~15% global share). This reminds me of 2020 when WS analysts significantly underestimated the TSLA TAM expansion as TSLA entered the CUV category with Model Y. I assume a 20% take rate on TSLA FSD at $8,000 or $99/month (50%/50%).
My TSLA earnings ests remain way above Wall Street (WS) estimates reflecting much higher than WS volume estimates:
- 2025 $3.80 vs WS $3.30
- 2026 $5.60 vs WS $4.14
- 2027 $7.70 vs WS $5.26
- 2030 $17.00 vs WS $11.85
Assuming 2030 Adj EPS of $17, a PEG ratio of 1.75x, and expected long-term EPS growth of 25%, my 2030 PT equals $744 ($17 x 25% x 1.75x). At a 14.2% cost of equity (10yrTY 4.0% + ERP 6.0% x TSLA beta 1.7x) discounted back 5 years that equates to a TSLA present value of $380.
If I assume 1/ robotaxi 2030 earnings of $1.00 EPS, which assumes 8 billion rides globally ex-China, 20% ride-hailing share and a 25% TSLA take rate, and 2/ Optimus 2030 earnings of $1.40 EPS, which assumes robot TAM quadruples to 2.0M robots and TSLA captures 50% share at a $20K ASP and 30% gross margin, I could add a total $2.40 incremental EPS to my 2030 EPS, which would translate to 2030 EPS of $19.40, justifying a 2030 value of $850 ($19.40 x 25% x 1.75), and increase my TSLA bull case PT to $435.
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$ADA Time to level up!
$2.50 - $3.50 Inbound 😎 https://t.co/PZCWaG9qFq
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🚨BREAKING🚨
Reiterating $502 by EOY 2024!!!
$TSLA Shorts are F*CKED !!! https://t.co/xUptvmY4BH
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DON'T LET THE BEARS tell you today was low volume! The entire market was up and every sector. Today's volume exceeded Nov 6 election day volume. $SPY upside target next week 600/601. https://t.co/Z07oZMVoq4
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I’m calling it again.
In November this year when $TSLA was $303 I predicted it would rally. Within 1 month it flew to $480+
Now $TSLA is sitting at $430 setting up for a massive breakout.
This time, I predicted $TSLA will hit $600+ by February 2025.
Mark my words… https://t.co/2lwO3nutm9
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$AMD's Slide Continues—But I'm Not Counting It Out Yet! 🚀
Despite the current dip, I'm eyeing a massive +100% rise by 2025, particularly in Q1. 😈
In this video we cover what I plan to do with. my FEB calls, and how I will manage my risk ⬇️ https://t.co/IBO71SRrUq
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Next-gen CarPlay’s first models should still ‘arrive in 2024,’ per Apple’s site https://t.co/a9JJwEk9eP by @iryantldr
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$TSLA as long as monthly candle closes above earlier high - pullback would be your last gift...the she gone... https://t.co/RO9ORlXbhs
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#Nifty 23587
The level that can save the bulls lies around 23300-350. If that gets taken out then C will take it deeper:
Bears be like - No retreat, No Surrender!! https://t.co/CD772e9rhX
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@QGdoPOP Ele vai dar iPhone nos EUA, onde o preço é ok e 90% da população usa esse telefone. https://t.co/v4E6D39oGl
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$TSLA near reached $500 per share without FSD Unsupervised becoming available to customers…
A $2,000 valuation for Tesla stock is BEARISH!
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This will surprise you $GOOG $GOOGL ‼️
$GOOG is expected to accelerate its EPS growth from 2024-2027, outpacing its already impressive growth from 2021-2024
Best of all, $GOOG is 17% cheaper today than it was at the end of 2021 🤯 https://t.co/qiDIcr2q9U
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$HBAR looks insanely bullish on the yearly timeframe.
2025 could send us above $4 https://t.co/iNaiyRXcYu
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$ALGO @AlgoFoundation @Algorand | Looking good on higher timeframes, brilliant move up with the rest of the market followed by a pullback to a key area
Watching this very closely as I think the uptrend will continue, 78c is the next target. https://t.co/yOQFEWPAgu
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Apple Teams Up With NVIDIA to Speed Up AI Language Models https://t.co/oHzEwfZuRr https://t.co/zcu4xxe5z9
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I strongly believe that...
$ASML, $GOOG, $HIMS are the 3 best risk-reward opportunities in the market.
REITs like $O, $VICI are both trading at great valuations here.
Growth stocks like $MELI, $NU, $CELH are super attractive here as well and should outperform.
$MDLZ, $PEP, $HSY are three super beaten down consumer staples, great risk-reward.
$OXY is the best oil play here, also cyclical.
$AMD is another great cyclical play here.
$UNH, $ELV are too beaten down and trading for dirt cheap valuations with fast earnings growth.
$CNI, $CP, $UNP the railroads have ocean wide moats with minimal risk here.
$UBER is attractive here if you don't believe in the robotaxi thesis.
$NKE is too cheap here with a strong brand, great earnings report and guidance is likely conservative so easy to beat with new CEO.
$CROX is just stupidly cheap.
$PLTR, $TSLA are still way too extended and expensive here, wouldn't touch these!
Agree or disagree overall with my stock market takes?? 🤔
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US November core PCE +2.8% y/y vs +2.9% expected
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Back in $MU again as it went below $85.
Last Q was not pretty, but ‘26 revenue consensus is still +$6bn higher (at $45bn) than what it was in April ($39bn), when the stock was at $130. Can it get to $45bn?
That type of ‘26 rev implies 8% FCF yield & 4x EBITDA at current price. https://t.co/LlQ1Y9jSUQ
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We nailed the $NVDA peak with precision.
Now, we're pinpointing the bottom between $120 - $110.
I believe $NVDA has significant potential for growth in the next 60 - 90 days.
Once the weak hands fold, the sky's the limit 🚀.
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[RTs/likes are appreciated ♡]
˗ˏˋ꒰🍎꒱ 𝗡𝗼𝘁 𝘀𝗼 𝗳𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗵 𝗔𝗣𝗣𝗟𝗘 𝗖𝗔𝗥𝗕𝗜𝗡𝗘𝗥 Pre Order
✿ PO until 12 Jan 2025
✿ DP 50k
✿ size 8 cm
💌 PO form: https://t.co/d3dWywVHPW https://t.co/uYOOsLckth
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JUST IN:
Nvidia $NVDA has passed Apple $AAPL to retake the position of the largest company in the world 👑 https://t.co/Vaq7OZcIWM
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$MOG is divinely protected
next price target is $1.00 https://t.co/oUvijZarJj
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Performance in 2025:
S&P 500: 2.2%
Nasdaq: 3.3% https://t.co/n7qXCFSPdc
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$ADA mcap in 2021: from 5B to 93B
$QUBIC mcap in 2025: from 400M to ...
⬇️ your predictions? https://t.co/sfKzJBClpX
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Apple $AAPL brought in Free Cash Flow of $108.8 Billion in 2024 up from $2.3B in 2005 https://t.co/cwkE5S4PkH
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Weak OLED iPad Pro Demand Forces Panel Supplier to Pivot to iPhone https://t.co/w3yTYi0Ywq https://t.co/FNRW0quAQU
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Nvidia $NVDA is now just ~$40 Billion behind Apple $AAPL https://t.co/DQgRdZHfxW
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The forward PE multiples of the Magnificent Seven:
- Tesla: 132.0x
- Amazon: 38.3x
- Nvidia: 36.6x
- Apple: 32.9x
- Microsoft: 32.1x
- Meta: 24.7x
- Alphabet: 22.4x https://t.co/ccvT4ioObg
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There is zero downside impulse in Palantir $PLTR left. We may see a shallow retracement to $70 or $75 but then we’re headed to Valhalla. $100, $125, $150, $175, and $200 are the immediate targets. After that, $250, $500, and $1,000 are possible this cycle.
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In 2015, Apple became the biggest company in the world.
Now, they're worth $3.68 TRILLION dollars and have sold over 190 MILLION units.
But I predict they'll go bankrupt by 2030.
Here's the sinister truth Apple is hiding from you: https://t.co/2icriIY5pG
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Apple, $AAPL, set for upgrade ‘supercycle,’ as 300 million iPhones are over 4 years old, per MW.
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sized in memes ai and apple
seem bottomed I hope
will update later! https://t.co/YNXAFuctUi
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TOP 5 PICKS 2025
“It is not the strongest nor the most intelligent of species that survives, but the one that is most adaptable to change.” – Charles Darwin. This is how I am thinking about 2025.
As a reminder, my Top 5 picks coming into 2024 had a skew of defense and offense. Those were:
$AMZN- Big margin leverage & share gainer in a recession
$META- Reasonable valuation vs growth & AI beneficiary
$TXN- Recovery play in semis & appreciation of fab strategy
$XBI- Valuation tipping point & defensive in a recession
$KWEB- After 3 yrs of punishment by China, tide may be turning
A year ago in my outlook for 2024, I said on CNBC and wrote on January 2nd of 2024: “Looking into 2024, we believe the S&P could gain another 20% (10% from earnings growth and another 10% from multiple expansion) if the Fed does in fact engineer the first soft landing since 1995.” While my forecast was one of the most aggressive at the time following an up 24% year in 2003, the Fed indeed seems to have pulled off a soft landing and the stock market gained 23% in 2024.
My 2025 Top 5 picks also have defense & offense:
Cash - Guaranteed 4% yield in a MMF & dry powder
$CSCO- Networking the data being generated from AI
$KBWB- Deregulation, NIM grows & active capital mkt
$IJJ- New US policies benefit mid (& small) cap value
$ADTN- Optical spend driven by telco carriers & BEAD
Backdrop for 2025
For 2025, I have a combination of more conservative and aggressive options to account for:
1) a solid economy driven by the US consumer
2) but with inflation being the wildcard
3) and AI spending which I predict will go through a period of digestion by mid-2025
My largest concern is about inflation reigniting in late 2025 and the Fed needing to raise rates due to a strong US consumer and pro-growth US fiscal policies which are also inflationary. Therefore my goal is to remain adaptable to the markets reaction to incoming data in 2025. Being patient and waiting for stock market to acknowledge inflection points, both good and bad, in the inflation narrative has served me well over the past four years. Fortunately, I did not believe inflation was transitory in 2021 which had me prepared for the downturn when the market & Fed also finally acknowledged inflation was not transitory in 2022.
S&P Returns Impacted by Mkt views on Inflation
2021 +27%: Fed/mkt ignore CPI rising from 1.4% to 7%
2022 –19%: Fed admits mistake on inflation & hikes
2023 +24%: Fed pause & mkt discounts lower inflation
2024 +23%: Fed cuts & mkt discounts soft landing
I think the odds are almost 50% that the Fed stays on hold or raises rates by late 2025. As a result, much like in 2022, investors may be looking at losses in both stocks and bonds if fears of a 1970s resurgence in inflation arise. As the Fed continued cutting rates, headline PCE bottomed in June with the rest of the headline and core CPI and PCE inflation metrics bottoming in Q3 and started to rise again. But the stock market kept rising & ignored rising inflation much like in 2021. As a reminder in 2021, CPI rose from 1.4% to 7.0% but the S&P rallied 27%. This changed on December 18th when the stock market fell 3% and treasury yields surged after Jerome Powell said the Fed’s inflation forecast has “kind of fallen apart.”
With the S&P trailing PE at 25x versus 19x historically when CPI is between 2.5-3.0% at year end, market multiples are high. A good portion of the multiple premium versus history can be accounted for by 10 year treasury yields at 4.6% versus 5.8% historically when CPI is this high. Having said that, this is why the stock market has been so sensitive ever since the last Fed meeting to any move in rates. It would not surprise me to see 10 year yields go higher as the new administration tries to issue longer dated treasury debt. This would put pressure on stock market multiples.
Q1/2025 guidance could also be disappointing when Q4 results are reported:
1) There will be an ad falloff from the most expensive US election in history in Q1 and no Olympic benefit either for all of 2025.
2) Easter will be on 4/20 this year versus 3/31 last year lowering consumer spending and related ad spending in Q1. Though this should benefit Q2, many companies only give guidance for the following quarter.
3) The US$ ended Q3 at $101 and ended the year at $108. The S&P gets ~30% of revs from international markets which will negatively impact forward guidance when results are reported.
My range of possible outcomes for 2025 of +10% (inflation contained & earnings grow 10%) to down 20% (inflation picking up & market multiples compress) is one of the widest I can remember.
Policies of the incoming administration (& the Fed) have several goals that arguably could produce very different inflationary outcomes for the stock market in 2025 while the economy remains strong:
1. During Trump’s first term, the S&P CAGR was 14%. Extending tax cuts & more deregulation is likely to spur GDP growth but could also be inflationary.
2. Tariffs are likely to help the US economy by driving more domestic manufacturing but could be inflationary to imports.
3. More restrictive immigration policies are likely to reduce government spending over the long-term but increase inflation for lower-end services industries.
4. Central bank rate cuts in 2024 should help drive GDP growth in 2025 but could also risk reigniting inflation.
5. DOGE cutting ~$2 trillion in Federal Government spending by mid-2006 would reduce the federal deficit to GDP back to 3% by 2028 but could also be a ~7% hit to GDP over that time.
6. Producing an additional 3 million barrels of oil a day should help bring down energy costs & inflation but could hurt the oil industry as well through less profitability.
7. AI is deflationary & spending should grow over the next several years but I expect a digestion phase by mid-2025.
Top 5 Picks for 2024 given the wide possible range of outcomes
Cash invested in a money market fund
Cash was also a Top5 Pick of mine for 2022 during which the S&P declined 19%. Money market funds (MMFs) currently offer a guaranteed yield of 4%. Given my concerns about 2025, I believe this is a solid guaranteed return which also leaves dry powder if the market sells off.
$CSCO (Cisco Systems)
Legacy tech company that could re-rate higher as 2025 becomes the year to network the enormous data created by AI infrastructure investment. Over the past two years, there has been an explosion in the volume & density of data created by the AI infrastructure spend. Now the networks will need to be upgraded to catch up and move this data around for enterprises. Cisco’s own internal semiconductor solution called Silicon One is developing into a viable alternative to ASIC solutions while Splunk provides double digit growth in security and data analytics. In Cisco’s October quarter, four different webscalers grew orders over 100% with $300M+ in AI. The PE multiple also has plenty of room to expand at only 16x CY25 for this legacy technology player if it becomes associated more closely with networking the AI infrastructure. Cisco’s nearly 3% dividend yield and relatively low valuation also provides some defense in the event of a stock market downturn.
$KBWB (Bank ETF)
This environment should also specifically benefit bank stocks through less regulation, greater return on loans & more capital markets activity including M&A within the group. The KBWB ETF is a market cap weighted index of companies primarily engaged in US banking activities. The Fund holds large national US money centers, regional banks & thrift institutions. This sector is up just 12% vs 82% for the S&P over the past 5 calendar years after suffering through the banking crisis in 2023 led by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank and First Republic Bank in 2023 when treasury yields surged.
While KBWB was up only 9% during the first half of 2024, it rose 22% in the second half with 7% following the election. The potential walking back some of the regulatory proposals of the Basel III Endgame set to be implemented on 7/1/25 should also result in higher dividends and increases in stock buybacks. With the yield curve steepening, I also see net interest margin improving as loan growth improves on pro-growth policies by the new US administration while credit quality remains stable. I almost replaced $KBWB with $WFC (Wells Fargo) given their asset cap imposed by the Fed in 2018 should be finally lifted in 2025. This should enable them to grow again in their higher return businesses but their stock gained 43% in 2024 with some anticipation of this event while KBWB was up 33%. And over the past 2 calendar years, Wells is up 70% while KBWB is up only 27%.
$IJJ (S&P Midcap Value ETF)
Both small and mid-cap value stocks have lagged since the tech spend during Covid & then the AI buildout, but I believe that will change in 2025.
With the world going online during Covid in 2020 and then spending on AI infrastructure starting in 2023, large cap technology stocks have surged over the past five years. As investors rightfully chased these group of large cap momentum stocks, best exemplified by the Magnificent 7. This left the small & mid-cap stocks behind. Over the past five calendar years, the S&P gained 82% while the Nasdaq 100 gained 141% led by the Magnificent 7 that gained 635%. But the S&P midcap index gained just 51% while the S&P small cap index gained just 38%. This performance gap looks even larger over the past 10 years with the S&P up almost 3x, the Nasdaq 100 up 5x but the Midcap & Small Cap Index up under 2x.
But 2025 should see 1) the second Trump administration focused on lower taxes, less regulation and 2) 1% in Fed rate cuts since September helping interest on loans that should benefit small & mid cap stocks. I have been talking about my preference for a more equal weight basket of names since mid-2024. I believe with the recent election that further refining this to the value portion of the small cap and mid cap stocks can enhance returns even more.
Value mid-cap & value small-cap stocks should also be more defensive if 1) inflation does re-ignite like in 2022 and yields rise along with the Fed Funds Rate or 2) if the AI digestion phase I expect is more problematic to the overall market. During the tech bubble collapse, while the S&P was down 44% with the Nasdaq100 down 82%, mid-cap value was up 7% with small cap value down only 1%. The mid-cap S&P and small-cap S&P were down a much greater 23% each during that time. In 2022, they were -14%/-17% respectively but the value segment of each was only -9%/-13%. This was much better than down 19% for the S&P or down 33% for the Nasdaq 100. This outperformance during these two periods of decline (2022 and tech bubble collapse) is why I picked the S&P Midcap Value ETF of $IJJ over the S&P Smallcap Value ETF of $IJS.
$ADTN (Adtran)
Adtran is a small cap (<$1B in market cap), value stock (1.4x EV/Sales vs competitors Calix or Ciena at 2.5-2.8x), that provides networking and comm equipment primarily for telecom carriers. Adtran should benefit from both improving macro conditions & increasing fiber deployment globally:
1) On a macro basis, excess inventory has been depleted at customers after at least a year of oversupply.
2) In Europe, both Deutsche Telekom and British Telecom, where Adtran has 70-100% share, are deploying fiber to the home.
3) In the US, $42.5B in federal BEAD funds for communities with limited broadband access should finally start to flow by mid-year 2025 after being signed into law in 2021. The majority of the funding should be going to optical.
4) ~$100M from sales of buildings with even more from non-core asset sales in 1H:25 should improve Adtran’s balance sheet which has ~$190M in debt at ~8% interest.
5) Adtran’s acquisition of ADVA Optical Networking in mid-2022 has helped add over 10 new customers in 2024 in each of their three product categories with orders improving in all three last quarter.
6) Adtran is also picking up market share following the recent acquisition of Infinera by Nokia & the gradual removal of Huawei from European telecom networks on security concerns.
Originally, I was going to pick the small cap value ETF of $IJS as my 5th Top Pick but $ADTN is a single stock small cap value way to play this same theme with company specific catalysts. Adtran is my riskiest recommendation by far but with the potential in the best case to have the multiple double to be inline with its peers if all events play out as expected.
While these are my best five ideas for 2025 based on the information I have today, my thoughts are constantly evolving based on new information & the reaction of the stock market to that data. In addition, there are always stocks that I expect to struggle that I can use to hedge but that need to be managed even more aggressively given their asymmetric risk to reward. Stocks have infinite upside but can only go to zero.
As always, the key will be to remain intellectually flexible and data dependent. As Charles Darwin said, "It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one most adaptable to change."
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Cheapest growth stocks to buy now: $NU, $MELI, $HIMS, $TMDX, $AMD
Cheapest foundational stocks: $ASML, $UNH, $GOOG, $CNI, $ELV, $ULTA, $LVMUY
Expensive stocks to avoid: $PLTR, $OKLO, $MSTR, $IONQ
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There's now a 40% chance the Fed will pivot back to hiking rates again next year, per Apollo Global Management.
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Analytics: market outlook and forecasts* 💎
📈 WHAT HAPPENED?
Last week, for bitcoin, as expected, we captured liquidity from the lower boundary of the sideways range of $92,300 through a false breakdown and resumed the upward movement.
The growth wave didn't show a clear market dominance of buyers. We observed a manifestation of strength only once, when the buyer absorbed a strong selling bar and thereby formed a new local buying zone of $97,200-$96,200. The dominance of limit orders, on the contrary, is on the buyer's side.
Throughout the flat, we have a pattern of cumulative delta sell absorption: the delta updates its lows, but the price doesn't.
💼 WHAT WILL HAPPEN: OR NOT?
At the moment, we're close to the upper limit of the $100,000 sideways trend, and we're waiting for its test.
Above, we have a strong selling zone, from which we can get a reaction and return to the current range. The development of a full-fledged long-term movement towards ATH is possible, but only through retests.
For now, the priority is to continue the balance with a slight advantage in favor of the buyer.
📰 IMPORTANT DATES
Macroeconomic developments this week:
• Monday, January 6, 13:00 (UTC) — publication of the German consumer price index for December;
• Monday, January 6, 14:45 (UTC) — publication of the business activity index (PMI) in the US services sector for December;
• Tuesday, January 7, 10:00 a.m. (UTC) — publication of the consumer price index in the Eurozone for December;
• Tuesday, January 7, 3 p.m. (UTC) — ISM's Purchasing Managers' Index for the non-manufacturing sector of the United States for December and the number of open vacancies in the JOLTS US labor market for November;
• Wednesday, January 8, 13:45 (UTC) — publication of changes in the number of people employed in the US non-agricultural sector in December;
• Wednesday, January 8, 19:00 (UTC) — publication of the FOMC minutes;
• Thursday, January 9, 13:30 (UTC) — publication of the number of initial applications for US unemployment benefits;
• Friday, January 10, 13:30 (UTC) — publication of the average hourly wage, changes in the number of people employed in the non-agricultural sector and the US unemployment rate for December.
*NFA
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$NU is the most underrated stock in the market. It can still make 10x:
1) Their revenue per active user is 1/4 of that of a traditional bank. They can easily double the revenue by up-selling and cross-selling.
2) They are approaching $100 million active quarterly users, but they are only active in Brazil, Mexico and Colombia. There is a lot of room for growth.
3) They are still mainly a credit card business. As their deposit base grows, their cost on credit will decline and net interest margin will expand.
4) Small and medium business segment is just taking off. This segment is generally a cash-cow for banks.
5) Other businesses such as marketplace and insurance are still small, they will also grow into significant revenue channels.
At 18 times earnings, the stock is basically a free money right now.
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ICYMI Apple has opted in all users to "Homomorphic-based Enhanced Visual Search". This allows it to grab your photos & geolocate landmarks in them. They say this is being done in a way that preserves privacy but it being secretly sprung on users doesn't inspire confidence.
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When $AVAX pumps $COQ does too
Simple as that
$COQ is one of my all-time favorite memes
I believe it will perform exceptionally well
Ez run back to 400M mc ATH soon https://t.co/ArU0riRvak
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$AAPL Apple is not just a tech company; it’s a global brand with a loyal customer base and a reputation for innovation. From the iPhone to its growing services segment, Apple consistently evolves and finds new revenue streams. Its cash reserves and focus on shareholder value, including dividends and buybacks, make it a solid choice for long-term growth.
Short-term dips don’t change Apple’s ability to dominate markets and create future products that shape industries. A red day is simply a discount on a company that has proven its resilience and profitability for decades. #AAPL
https://t.co/SXgtQdhBEP for our discussions; we're all there fam!
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$AAPL - Apple Inc. has a serious currency risk.
60% of Revenues come from outside the US. A strong $USD has effects on a constant currency earnings basis.
Not what you want to see at 32x P/E. https://t.co/qzIugjkr33
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Apple’s high valuation is like a magician’s trick—everyone’s amazed, but we all know it can’t last! With recent launches promising to drive growth, AAPL is looking bullish in the short term.
#Apple #AAPL
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$AAPL 233.28
Completed 9-0 Buy #SequenceCounter yesterday in the Daily Time Frame
@apple next earnings report
Thursday Jan 30 at 4:30 pm est https://t.co/OraQMxbyZA
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$apple will flip @Apple this cycle.
$aapl
- Lack of innovation since iphone
- Half eaten fruit
- Exploit slave analogue cheap labor in Asia
- TRILLION dollar valuation
$apple
- Dev delivers new features every day
- Entire fruit + dog
- Community works for a better future together
- 20M valuation, plenty of room to grow
That said, $APPLE is severally undervalue and will reprice soon.
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